Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 240228
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
928 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
MADE SOME TWEAKS TO POPS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MOST AREAS OF WESTERN
OKLAHOMA TO REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. ONGOING COMPLEX OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT...BRINGING
SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE WANING AS INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO DECREASE THIS EVENING. STILL...A SEVERE STORM OR TWO
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 11 PM TO MIDNIGHT. OTHER THAN
CHANGES TO POPS...TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...AND
WINDS...AND ALSO NUDGED OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS UP JUST A BIT AS
FRONTAL PASSAGE APPEARS TO OCCUR A BIT LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
BUSY FORECAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH SEVERE STORMS LIKELY
TODAY/TONIGHT...SATURDAY...AND PERHAPS SUNDAY.

DRYLINE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED EAST OF AMARILLO SOUTHWARD TO NEAR
BIG SPRING TX. CU FIELD BECOMING MORE ENHANCED NEAR SNYDER TX
NOW...AND EXPECT INITIAL DEEP CONVECTION THERE WHERE CURRENT
MESO ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGHEST INSTABILITY AND LOWEST CIN ALONG
THE DRYLINE. ADDITIONAL CU CAN BE SEEN JUST EAST AND NE OF AMA AS
WELL. WILL KEEP THIS DISCUSSION SHORT SINCE AT LEAST A SEVERE
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED VERY SOON FOR WESTERN OK/N TX. MAIN
THREAT (LARGE HAIL NEAR TENNIS BALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER 70
MPH) WILL REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AND THEN PERHAPS
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL OK DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS
(SMALLER HAIL BUT STILL A DAMAGING WIND THREAT). POPS SHOULD
QUICKLY DECREASE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT SOME FAIRLY STRONG WINDS (25 TO 35 MPH)
BEHIND THE FRONT SO AN ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

NOT MUCH GOING ON BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVE AS WINDS BEGIN TO
DECREASE WITH ONSET OF SFC HIGH. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVE ANOTHER LEE
LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR SE CO AND MOISTURE WILL START TO RETURN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SSE FLOW. DIFFUSE DRYLINE MAY SETUP ALONG
TX PANHANDLE/OK BORDER...BUT WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT
FOR NOW AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. LOW POPS MAY NEED TO
BE INTRODUCED NEAR SW OK/W N TX WHERE CAP MAY ERODE AND ENOUGH
SFC CONVERGENCE COULD PROVIDE LIFT FOR A COUPLE OF STORMS TO
DEVELOP. BY SATURDAY MORNING A POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE SOCAL REGION...AND THEN TO NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE 4 CORNERS
BY 00Z SUN. EXPECT SFC DEWPOINTS TO MAKE IT INTO THE LOW TO MID
60S AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE LATE SAT AFTERNOON. RAPID HEIGHT FALLS
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...AND SUFFICIENT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WX THREAT ALONG AND WEST OF I35. THE THREAT WILL THEN SHIFT
EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE CLOSED LOW WITH
MOST OF THE COVERAGE JUST EAST OF OUR FA. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP CHC
POPS IN FOR THE EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY AS THE ECMWF AND GEMNH
SOLUTIONS ARE SLOWER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  78  52  84 /  60  10   0   0
HOBART OK         61  80  50  86 /  80   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  66  82  54  86 /  70  10   0   0
GAGE OK           55  76  49  86 /  10   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     64  78  50  85 /  80  20   0   0
DURANT OK         64  80  54  83 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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