Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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613
FXUS64 KOUN 251801
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1201 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected. Winds will turn from northeast-
southeast to south and increase through tomorrow morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1022 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017/

UPDATE...
No changes to the forecast are necessary.

DISCUSSION...
A seasonably cool day with abundant sunshine is expected across
Oklahoma and north Texas today. With a surface ridge shifting
from west to east, light winds will transition from north to
south through this afternoon.

Mahale

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 548 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017/

AVIATION...25/12z TAF Issuance...
VFR conditions are anticipated through the period. North winds
will continue to relax through the morning, with a gradual shift
to the south through midday. Mostly clear skies through the day,
with scattered midlevel ceilings developing through the later half
of the period.

Kurtz

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 420 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Primary forecast focus is on precipitation chances early next week
and fire weather.

This morning... the surface ridge will continue to slowly build
southward across the plains as the open 500mb trough continues to
lift eastward across the mid-Mississippi valley. In response, winds
have relaxed across northern Oklahoma, while breezy north winds will
persist, through sunrise, across southern Oklahoma into north Texas.
Cooler, more seasonable temperatures, what a novel concept for
February, will occur across the region today. Sunny and brisk, with
highs in the mid to upper 40s, near 50 across the area.

Into Sunday, under zonal flow, the broad surface high will slide
rather quickly eastward by sunrise, with a return to southerly
flow ahead of a subtle 500mb short wave and increasing surface
trough off the western high plains. In response, temperatures will
rebound on Sunday, and shower and isolated thunderstorm chances
will return and gradually increase from southeastern Oklahoma into
central Oklahoma and portions of western north Texas overnight
into Monday morning. The best chances for precipitation will
generally be across northeastern Texas into southeastern Oklahoma.
With the track of the open short wave trough, the best moisture
return will be focused across the ARKLATEX and southeastern
Oklahoma, concurrent with the best axis of isentropic ascent. By
the afternoon, rain chances will have shifted eastward.

Into Tuesday, a larger 500mb trough will be moving ashore out west,
with a developing surface low stretched from the central plains,
southwest across the Panhandles. Mid/long-range guidance remains
in okay agreement with initial precipitation chances. General
consensus is for the forecast to remain dry through Tuesday
morning, with two regions of precipitation areas developing
overnight. The more pressing issue, at first, will be
temperatures and fire weather. Stout, warm, dry, southwesterly
downslope flow will open a window of quick warming across western
north Texas into southwestern Oklahoma. Model blends have/will
struggle with resolving temperatures and dew points with this
scenario, specifically, the developing dry line. This warm, dry,
windy pattern will result in a narrow window in the late morning
and afternoon for elevated fire weather conditions across portions
of western Oklahoma into western north Texas. After which,
continual moisture advection into southeastern and south central
Oklahoma will result in shower and thunderstorm chances developing
in the late afternoon and overnight into Wednesday. Additionally,
as the cold front associated with the 500mb trough pushes in from
the north Wednesday morning, precipitation chances will result
along the Oklahoma/Kansas border, with colder temperatures and
profiles hinting at a light, low to no impact, rain/snow mix in
the early morning in northwestern Oklahoma.

Precipitation chances will end by Wednesday afternoon, with dry
conditions into the weekend. Temperatures will be relatively mild as
broad high pressure remains positioned over the region. A return to
southerly flow ahead of another surface trough into Saturday hints
at a warm up for next weekend, again.

Kurtz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  48  32  60  42 /   0   0   0  20
Hobart OK         46  33  61  39 /   0   0   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  50  34  67  46 /   0   0   0  20
Gage OK           47  31  57  32 /   0   0   0  10
Ponca City OK     47  30  55  37 /   0   0  10  20
Durant OK         52  34  62  49 /   0   0  10  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

09/10/10



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