Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 042019
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
319 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LATE IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THROUGH SATURDAY...EXPECT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S AND 80S.

THE NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
LATE SATURDAY. A BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
SHOULD MITIGATE THE OVERALL MOISTURE QUALITY AND DEPTH ON SATURDAY.
IN ADDITION...THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THEREFORE...ONLY A FEW ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
MAY APPROACH WESTERN OKLAHOMA LATE SATURDAY. ANTICIPATE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT TO BE DIMINISHED BY THE LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN.

SUNDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER DAY AS A
SHORTWAVE/JETSTREAK EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROADER FLOW APPROACHES THE
REGION. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA...WITH
GREATER MOISTURE QUALITY AND DEPTH AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

WITH MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC FEATURES IN PLACE...THE EXTENT OF THE
SEVERE THREAT MAY DEPEND ON THE OVERALL WIND PROFILE. THE WIND
PROFILE WILL BE SENSITIVE TO THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AND ITS IMPACT ON
THE TROUGH EJECTION INTO THE PLAINS. THEREFORE...EXPECT THERE TO
BE SOME VARIATIONS/SHIFTS IN THE FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER TO
SUNDAY.

SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...AS A SECOND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW APPROACHES THE
REGION.

THE SYSTEM APPEARS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH WHERE ANY CHANCE OF STORMS AND
WILL DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY BY TUESDAY.

MAHALE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  49  78  53  81 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         49  81  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  51  81  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           47  83  54  85 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     45  78  51  82 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         50  77  53  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/10


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