Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 310540 AAB
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1240 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
31/06Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
WILL MENTION MVFR BR AT KPNC THROUGH 15Z WITH SOME DENSE FOG NOT
OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD WITH RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

UPDATE...
RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS THE FA. THE REST OF THE NIGHT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN DRY BUT IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
FEW MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN SE PARTS OF THE
FA. HOWEVER... WILL KEEP POP/WX FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. CLOUDS IN
THE SE ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA
SO WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE FORECAST. UPDATES OUT SOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT... BUT CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION
AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY WITH SOME GUSTS
APPROACHING 20KTS ACROSS THE WEST BY AFTN.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM NEAR A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NEAR WAURIKA TO
COALGATE. CAPPING IS RATHER STRONG...HOWEVER A MID LEVEL
WEAKNESS CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA MAY BE ENOUGH FOR TO
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. THUS...WENT WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE IN THESE LOCATIONS. IF STORMS FORM...THEY WOULD BE SLOW
MOVERS...PRODUCE LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS...AND GUSTY WINDS PERHAPS UP
TO 50 TO 60 MPH. ANY CONVECTION WOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

AFTER 10 PM THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING...PATCHY FOG MAY FORM
AGAIN ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER NEAR ALVA...
ENID...AND CHEROKEE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS HIGHER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THESE LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT.
THUS...ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG. DOUBT FOG WILL BE TOO DENSE
OR WIDESPREAD SINCE NO RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS TODAY.

MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOTTER WITH INCREASING SOUTH
SURFACE WINDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING STORM IN SOUTHEAST OF A WAURIKA TO ADA LINE WHERE MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER AND CAPPING IS A BIT
WEAKER...BUT WILL NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...SEASONABLY HOT AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD. LOW
STORM CHANCES MAY RETURN TO MAINLY NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  70  92  71  92 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         71  96  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  97  73  96 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           69  95  70  94 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     70  93  71  92 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  94  71  94 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/30



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