Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 162009
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
309 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Winds go light and variable tonight but dense cloud cover should
impede strong radiational cooling.  However, a large amplitude
trough in the polar jet digging across the U.S Central & Northern
Plains through the Midwest & Upper Midwest Regions will push a cold
front through the Central Plains this evening and across our area
for tonight. Not expected to be windy behind this cold front with a
north wind around 10 mph.  Although the coldest Canadian air behind
this front will be strongest on Sunday night, some colder and drier
air will be right behind the frontal boundary as seen with
decreasing thicknesses in the 1000-850 mb layer and dewpoints
falling into the 30s across much of northern Oklahoma. NBM may be a
bit warm biased for tonight`s temperatures so will nudge our MinTs
using 50% of the colder CONSMOS as temperatures will likely be in
between both guidance numbers.  Our area will likely not see very
much sun on Sunday afternoon with broken mid to high clouds,
northeast winds (around 10 mph) and temperatures staying seasonably
average (lower to mid 60s).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Sunday night into Monday will be our coldest night/coolest day in
the forecast as the axis of the aforementioned trough digs through
northern, central, and eastern Oklahoma.  Expecting all of northern
and western and portions of central Oklahoma to drop to or below
freezing with the rest of our area struggling to stay in the 30s.
Northeast winds won`t be all that strong so nighttime winds chills
will be negligible.  We will see slightly cooler than average
temperatures Monday afternoon with highs in the 50s.  Surface high
pressure settles off to the Ozark/Deep South Regions with a change
of southwest winds across our area and under weak upper ridging will
start a warming trend.  Tuesday we`ll start seeing warmer nights
with mild afternoon highs in the 70s.  A cut-off low spinning out
over the U.S. Southwest is expected to become recaptured by the main
polar jet flow and start advancing toward and across the Southern
Plains as a weak open trough during the latter half of next week. As
a result, this system will start to bring "wetter" weather back into
our forecast for Wednesday and Thursday. We`ll start to see low-
level gulf moisture returning across the Southern Plains and forming
a dryline to our west across the Southern High Plains through
western Texas.

Our area will begin to destabilize by Wednesday with the increasing
moisture and being in a warm sector with a synoptic system moving in
will increase chances for convection with storm POPs in the forecast
for Wednesday and Thursday.  However, both GFS & ECMWF are both
inconsistent with the timing of this system with a faster ECMWF
bringing the upper wave and cold front through on Thursday while the
slower GFS is toward Friday.  Will lean toward the faster European
model which is also more consistent timewise with the Canadian GEM
guidance.  Although instability may be ample for thunderstorms, CAPE
values suggesting weak instability due to a meager moisture return.
As a result, not expecting any convection to be severe at this time.
As far as POPs, will keep them low (20-30%) on Wednesday but
increase them (40-60%) Wednesday night into Thursday.  With the
cloud cover and rain, did go cooler than NBM for Thursdays MaxT
using the CONSALL guidance.  Not seeing much cooling behind
Thursdays frontal boundary as it will be more of a backdoor cold
front with the surface high up in the Great Lakes Region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

A large area of mainly light rain will move across much of western
into central and southeast Oklahoma and north Texas this
afternoon and early evening before shifting east of the area.
Within this area of rain sites could see a period of MVFR ceilings
with some thunder at SPS. After the rain ends skies will remain
cloudy through much of the remainder of the forecast with VFR
conditions. Light winds expected this afternoon and night with an
increase in northeast winds Sunday morning. Some gusts around
20kts expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  45  63  35  56 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         44  62  34  58 /  10   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  48  65  40  60 /  10   0   0   0
Gage OK           40  63  29  61 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     43  62  30  54 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         52  67  40  58 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...30


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