Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 241730 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.AVIATION...
24/18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. PRIMARILY LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND WILL BECOME STRONG NORTHWEST 12-15Z TOMORROW
MORNING AS WINDS RESPOND TO DEVELOPING SURFACE CYCLONE OVER MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR AND LIGHT WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGES WILL SHIFT WINDS TO NORTHWEST
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING. EACH OF THESE WILL BRING
DOWNSLOPE-WARMED AIR OVER OKLAHOMA AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE 10 TO MORE THAN 15 DEGREES ABOVE LATE-JANUARY NORMALS. SOME
MODELS INDICATE A STRONG MINIMUM OF DEWPOINT DEVELOPING AND MOVING
ACROSS WESTERN KS AND INTO PART OF NORTHWEST OK SUNDAY. THIS HAS
BEEN PARTIALLY ACCOMMODATED IN THE FORECAST TO REFLECT A TREND
TOWARDS ELEVATED FIRE POTENTIAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS WILL
BE MODERATE AND QUITE GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THE MOMENT,
TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES APPEAR TO BE JUST BELOW THE
THRESHOLD FOR A FIRE WEATHER WATCH; THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE
PRINCIPLE FORECAST CONCERN THIS WEEKEND. THE VERY WARM AIRMASS
CONTINUES INTO MID-WELL BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THURSDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING AIR  BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WHEN BEGINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW NEAR BAJA
 IN ITS PHASING WITH A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLIES.
COLDER AIR IS ON THE HORIZON LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  38  62  38 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         57  33  64  35 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  35  64  37 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           58  32  63  34 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     61  37  56  35 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         59  38  63  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/11



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