Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 220206 AAA
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
906 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Modified PoPs earlier for activity moving into southwest/west-
central Oklahoma. Continued development possible into the
overnight hours southwest into north-central Oklahoma within plume
of elevated moisture. Convective development late tonight into
early tomorrow morning near frontal boundary still plausible, with
stronger/more extensive storm development late tomorrow into
tomorrow night primarily near and south of I-40.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 610 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017/

AVIATION...
VFR conditions to continue tonight with mainly mid-clouds expected
to increase across the area. There is also an increasing
chance for shower/thunderstorms to impact GAG/WWR overnight.
Elsewhere, chances remain too low to mention overnight. A front will
drop south to near or just south of I-40 Tuesday afternoon and will
be focus for additional thunderstorm development. Will include a
prob30 at several of the sites for late in the forecast. Still
anticipate VFR conditions.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Storm chances begin to go up this evening, mainly across
northwestern Oklahoma, although the RAP and especially the 18Z NAM
suggest chances farther south into west central Oklahoma than
earlier expected this evening. Have expanded POPs farther south,
but will watch trends to see if additional adjustments will be
necessary. A cold front will move into the area tomorrow morning,
with additional storms expected to redevelop near the front
tomorrow afternoon. But the front will also being mild-for-August
weather with high temperatures generally expected to be in the 80s
beginning Wednesday and through the end of the week. Some
precipitation chances will persist (mainly south) with the
surface front somewhere in the vicinity mid-week. As we get
farther into the week, the will be some additional uncertainty
with precipitation chances influenced by the track of the tropical
system currently south west of the Yucatan Peninsula that models
suggest may move north through the western Gulf and perhaps into
the southern Plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  75  92  70  84 /  20  50  50  20
Hobart OK         76  95  70  86 /  30  50  50  30
Wichita Falls TX  77  98  72  88 /  10  20  50  30
Gage OK           72  89  65  85 /  30  40  20  10
Ponca City OK     76  90  65  85 /  40  40  20  10
Durant OK         75  95  73  88 /  10  20  50  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

11/30


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