Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 160357
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
957 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

.UPDATE...
Updated POP slightly in some areas and made minor adjustments to
hourly grids.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Although no reporting stations have reported rain yet, lowering of
elevation of radar echoes imply that some of the virga that we`ve
been seeing on the radar may actually be reaching the ground from
near Enid down to near Watonga. In central Oklahoma from OKC to
the northeast, despite increasing reflectivity in the mid levels
from more distant radars, the lack of any reflectivity above
around 20 dbZ below around 10000 feet in elevation suggests that
this precipitation band is still virga, or at best sprinkles.

Regardless, any precipitation tonight will not be making any
significant impact to the drought conditions. Have reoriented POPs
based on the current activity. Have also extended low POPs
farther southwest based on consistent signals from various high-
resolution models, although do not see any reason at this point to
go any higher than 20 percent POPs southwest.

Cold front is moving through northern and into central Oklahoma at
this time, with gusty north winds and falling temperatures in
northern Oklahoma. The timing of the front in the forecast looks
to be in decent shape.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 540 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Aviation discussion for the 00 UTC TAFs is below.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to continue.

Sped up the arrival of the cold front 1-4 hours in most locations.
A wind shift to the north will occur with the cold front.
Strong north to northeast surface winds will occur behind the
cold front with some gusts 35-40 kt possible before 18 UTC Friday.

Chances of MVFR conditions remain too low to mention in the TAFs,
though they will be briefly possible (generally 1-3 hours) at
northern and central Oklahoma TAF sites 05-17 UTC.

Chances of -RA/-SHRA remain too low to mention in the TAFs at
this time.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 302 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018/

DISCUSSION...
A strong cold front will move through Oklahoma and north Texas
this evening into early Friday morning, bringing much colder air
into the region. There may be a few showers near/behind the front
overnight, but not much rain is expected, even for those lucky
enough to get some.

The cold air`s visit will be short-lived, as warmer weather
returns for the weekend and early next week. As the low-level flow
turns back to southerly, more moisture will return to at least the
southern half of our forecast area, along with the highest rain
chances we`ve seen in a while. Unfortunately, though, the area
that most needs the rain (western Oklahoma and surrounding parts
of Texas) will have the lowest chances.

By Monday, instability will be on the rise, and there will be
enough vertical wind shear to support a few severe thunderstorms.
There is still a lot of question regarding such things as timing,
location, and effects of a capping inversion, however, so whether
severe storms will happen or not is still quite uncertain.

Cooler air will arrive again on Tuesday, with another cold front.
Unsettled weather will then continue for the remainder of the
forecast period (through early Thursday).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  37  44  35  62 /  30   0  50  20
Hobart OK         37  45  34  64 /  20   0  40  10
Wichita Falls TX  43  47  37  63 /  20  10  70  40
Gage OK           31  42  35  62 /  10   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     32  44  34  61 /  30   0  20  10
Durant OK         46  48  39  56 /  20  10  80  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$


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