Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 280930
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
430 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FORCING ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG S/WV TROUGH PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS EXPECTED TO KEEP AT LAST WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER GOING THROUGH THE DAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. AS LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS...WE EXPECT A LULL IN
ACTIVITY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
DEVELOPMENT INCREASING NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR ALIGNED WITH MIDLEVEL
TROUGH AXIS AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT
PROGD TO MAKE VERY SLOW PROGRESS FROM KANSAS DURING THE DAY AND
TONIGHT AND COULD ENHANCE LIFT SLIGHTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IN A NUTSHELL...POPS WERE INCREASED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
MAIN AXIS FOR HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH
THE MORNING THEN SHIFTING SOUTH INTO A REGION FROM SOUTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

AFTER UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION...MID-LEVEL TEMPS
WARM AND THE FORECAST WILL BE LEFT DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS. FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE EVOLUTION OF OBSERVED
LONG-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM OHIO VALLEY INTO THE GULF. GFS IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE IN LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER AT LEAST EASTERN HALF OF
CWA NEXT WEEK AS CURRENT SLOW PASSING S/WV INTERACTS WITH
MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND STAYS ANCHORED NEARBY. ECM MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH PASSING S/WV AND KEEPS UPPER TROUGH WELL EAST. WE
WILL SIDE WITH ECM FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  91  70  93  69 /  40  40  10   0
HOBART OK         94  70  95  69 /  40  40  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  98  74  98  73 /  20  30  10  10
GAGE OK           92  65  91  63 /  30  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     88  69  90  67 /  60  40  10  10
DURANT OK         95  73  93  71 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11


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