Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 300449
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1149 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
REFER TO THE 06Z AVIATION FORECAST BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
VERY COMPLEX FORECAST THIS TAF PERIOD. SCT SHRA HAVE DEVELOPED A
BIT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED. THUS...HAVE INTRODUCED TEMPO GROUPS FOR
BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VSBYS OVER WRN/CNTRL OK TERMINALS. THE HEAVIER
RA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS LOOK TO AFFECT KGAG/KWWR DOWN TO
KCSM/KHBR IN THE 08Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME...AND FROM 12Z TO AROUND 18Z
FARTHER EAST. PERSISTENT MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED WITH WIDESPREAD
RA AND OCCASIONAL TSRA. A NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHIFT WILL PROMOTE
COOLER AIR NEAR THE SFC...AND PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDINESS...WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS AT MOST TERMINALS BEYOND 18Z WED. KSPS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN SOUTH OF MOST SHRA/TSRA...THOUGH SOME LOW CLOUDS
MAY OCCUR FROM 10Z TO 18Z.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1041 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

UPDATE...
ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...MAINLY TO
INCREASE THEM OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

DISCUSSION...
RAIN WILL GET HEAVIER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LATEST RADARS INDICATED RAIN DEVELOPING...SLOWLY INCREASING
IN INTENSITY AND EXPANDING IN COVERAGE OVER SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THINK THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
RAINFALL RATES WILL REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS AND AS THE AIR MOISTENS. DUE TO THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY...LITTLE...IF ANY...THUNDER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT.

THE HEAVIEST RAIN STILL APPEARS TO BE IN THE 4 AM TO 4 PM TIME
FRAME IN MOST AREAS. CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN FINE SHAPE
AND WILL NOT ALTER.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  76  65  78 /  90  90  90  30
HOBART OK         66  83  66  81 / 100  70  70  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  88  68  83 /  70  30  60  20
GAGE OK           64  74  62  81 / 100  90  50  20
PONCA CITY OK     69  72  64  80 /  60  90  50  20
DURANT OK         72  81  66  78 /  40  50  90  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR OKZ004>007-
     009>012-014>019-022>025-027>029-040.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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