Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 181927
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
227 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Cold front still working its way across south-central and
southeast Oklahoma this afternoon. Chances for scattered to
numerous post=frontal storms will increase this evening and
especially overnight near and just north of this front, primarily
across south-central and southeast Oklahoma, as height falls and
associated erosion of mid-level cap occurs. Large hail will be
possible with steep lapse rates and 20 to 30 knots of shear. Heavy
rain could also become an issue near the Red River of southeast
Oklahoma where models are more persistent on storm formation.

Our cool down will not last long as temperatures expected to rise
to and above seasonal averages by Tuesday. With southwest U.S. upper
ridge attempting to build into Southern Plains ahead of next upper
trough, likely to see 100s again across western Oklahoma and
western north Texas by the end of the week.

Models beginning to show some consistency on frontal timing late
in the week with strong cold front potential late Friday and
Saturday. Still some question on amount/potential of tropical
moisture associated with Gulf system to interact with this front,
but given approaching high amplitude trough, tropical system will
likley be kicked eastward before it can get up this far north.
Regardless, next chance for organized rain and hopefully more
widespread activity appears on tap for the first part of next
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  62  87  66  92 /  10   0   0  10
Hobart OK         62  89  66  94 /  10   0   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  67  88  69  93 /  20  10  10  10
Gage OK           59  87  63  93 /   0   0   0  10
Ponca City OK     61  85  63  91 /   0   0   0  10
Durant OK         68  87  68  92 /  60  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

06/11



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