Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 211140
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
640 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY EXPECTED.

REMOVED BR MENTION THROUGH 16Z TODAY AS CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE
HAS DECREASED.

COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING
WIND AS IT MOVES NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY. THINK THE FRONT WILL
REACH KCSM-KOKC 14-15Z...KLAW 15-17Z...AND KSPS 16-19Z. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE 22-02Z.

ISO-SCT SHRA WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT...THUS ADDED/KEPT VCSH
MENTION AT MOST SITES. CONFIDENCE OF TS REMAINS TOO LOW TO
MENTION. IF SHRA DIRECTLY AFFECTS A GIVEN SITE...BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM...ESPECIALLY TODAY...
REMAINS THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE OF THE DAY.

LATEST RADAR INDICATED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA STATE LINE
NEAR A COLD FRONT. THINK DEVELOPMENT WILL SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL
DOWN SLIGHTLY ALLOWING FOR THE WEAKENING OF A MID LEVEL CAP.

GENERALLY WENT 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR STORMS TODAY. BASED ON
MODEL OUTPUT...ESPECIALLY THE HRRR/RAP13...AND LATEST RADAR
TRENDS...WENT WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE NEAR I-40 EARLY THIS
MORNING AND FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS FOR THE REST OF TODAY. MANY
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY...HOWEVER THOSE THAT GET WET MAY EXPERIENCE
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A QUICK HALF INCH TO
INCH OF RAINFALL. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW...UNDER 15 MPH...AND
GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. LACK OF SHEAR AND LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT ALLOW FOR STRONG OR SEVERE
STORMS TODAY.

KEPT PATCHY FOG MENTION ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST OF A WAURIKA TO HOLDENVILLE LINE THROUGH 10
AM THIS MORNING WHERE VISIBILITIES MAY BE LESS THAN 1 MILE IN A
FEW LOCATIONS. WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED.

CLOUDS AND NEARBY RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN TODAY ACROSS
MOST AREAS NORTH OF THE RED RIVER...THUS LOWERED HIGHS A BIT.
THINK HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE KANSAS OKLAHOMA
STATE LINE TO AROUND 90 NEAR THE RED RIVER. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S.

TONIGHT...DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS
COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR A COOLER NIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA. SLIGHTLY PREFERRED THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE LOWS AS
SURFACE WINDS MAY STAY UP SLIGHTLY AS WELL AS SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MAY LIMIT COOLING A BIT. REGARDLESS...MOST LOCATIONS WILL
DROP INTO THE 50S. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER NEAR THE
RED RIVER...MAINLY THIS EVENING.

MONDAY WILL BE A DRY...COOLER...AND LESS HUMID DAY. HIGHS WILL
BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
INCREASED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES. KEPT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA. DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...DID NOT MENTION
THUNDER. ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT AND NOT
WIDESPREAD. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS ON TUESDAY MAY BE A BIT
TRICKY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA...BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND STORMS MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS RATHER
LOW...SO DID NOT CHANGE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. RAIN CHANCES MAY
DECREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL APPEARS UNLIKELY DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  86  58  81  59 /  30  10   0  10
HOBART OK         85  59  81  57 /  30  20  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  90  62  85  58 /  20  20  10  10
GAGE OK           83  54  80  56 /  20  10  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     83  51  79  56 /  20   0   0  10
DURANT OK         90  61  82  56 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/17/17



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