Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 221141

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
541 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017



.AVIATION... /For the 12z TAFs/
Rain is currently being observed at northern TAF sites (WWR, GAG,
and PNC). As the deep closed low departs, this band of rain will
diminish/shift east. A brief period of light rain may occur early
this morning at OKC and OUN. MVFR to IFR ceilings are being
observed at all TAF sites except LAW and SPS, and IFR stratus will
likely reach both of those sites within an hour or two. Stratus
should clear out of GAG and WWD shortly. Gusty northwest winds
will persist into the afternoon. Otherwise, once the stratus moves
east later this morning all sites will return to VFR conditions.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 313 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017/

Latest IR image and radar mosaic show a well-defined band of
showers extending from far northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas
westward arcing down into the Texas Panhandle. This is coincident
with frontogenesis in the 850-700 mb layer and deformation zone on
the northern side of a closed low. The surface reflection of the
low was located over southwest Oklahoma elongated to the northeast
roughly along the I-44 corridor. To its northwest, surface winds
have strengthened with northwesterly gusts around 30 mph. A tight
pressure gradient will support northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph
with gusts to around 35 mph through mid afternoon across much of
the area. Winds will decrease by late afternoon.

Once precipitation moves out late this morning, dry conditions
will persist through the end of the forecast period. A progressive
but amplified upper flow pattern is expected into next week. A
period of mean ridging early next week will result in a warm up
from near or slightly above average temperatures expected
tomorrow. Monday, western sections may approach or reach 70
degrees, and as downslope southwesterly winds increase Tuesday
ahead of an approaching longwave trough, roughly the southeast
half of the area will reach at least the upper 60s if not lower
70s. As the trough moves east, cooler temperatures near mid-late
January normals will arrive.

Tuesday should have the most impactful weather of the next several
days. Medium range models are in decent agreement with a
deepening surface low tracking east across the central Plains and
a tight pressure gradient across our area. Diabatic heating/mixing
during the afternoon beneath an intense mid level jet (700 mb
speed max around 70 knots) could result in gusts exceeding
advisory criteria. We will need to monitor the evolution/timing
of this scenario since latest models seem to have strongest mid-
level winds a little further east than previously during peak
heating Tuesday. Also, if cirrus is thicker than currently
anticipated that may limit mixing some. Fire weather is also a
concern Tuesday (see Fire Weather section below).


Northwesterly winds will increase through the morning and peak
around midday to early afternoon at up to around 20 mph before
surface pressure gradient relaxes late today. Cooler temperatures
and relative humidity values will limit fire weather concerns.

A more significant fire weather threat is expected to develop
Tuesday. The alignment of the low level thermal ridge and mid-
level wind max are in question given some minor consistency issues
with timing in the models. Nevertheless, 20 foot winds exceeding
20 mph during peak heading/mixing seem likely. Furthermore, RH
values could fall below 20 percent in portions of western north
Texas and western Oklahoma. This is where the possibility of
critical fire weather conditions is greatest. Elevated to near
critical conditions may develop across much of the rest of the
forecast area.



Oklahoma City OK  57  33  62  42 /  50   0   0   0
Hobart OK         59  32  65  40 /  30   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  61  35  67  43 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           56  27  68  40 /  20   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     55  29  59  40 /  60   0   0   0
Durant OK         59  37  62  45 /  20   0   0   0




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