Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 241736

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1236 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

The 18Z aviation discussion follows....


A very similar weather setup to yesterday is in place again today.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form late this afternoon
and this evening roughly northwest of a line from KLTS to KSWO.
The greatest probability of storms is across far northwest
Oklahoma, including KGAG and KWWR. Storms should diminish toward
midnight, but low chances for showers/storms will continue into
tomorrow morning...again, much like today. A weak front will drift
southeast into Oklahoma on Thursday. This will cause more erratic
winds in northern Oklahoma, and a general weakening of speeds
across the entire area. It will also provide somewhat of a focus
for additional storm development, mainly after 18Z tomorrow.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 941 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016/

Adjusted precipitation chances this morning, increased chances for
northwestern Oklahoma late this afternoon.

A frontal boundary remains stalled across The Panhandles into
southwestern and central Kansas, and is expected to remain fairly
stationary through the day, in response to the positioning of the
western trough and the east/southeast ridge. Influenced from the
low level jet overnight/this morning, some decent convection
continues to wane across southern Kansas, with scattered showers
lingering over the Panhandles and far northwestern Oklahoma.

This afternoon, expect an increase of low level convergence along
the boundary as the 500mb short wave makes a push across
northeastern New Mexico. Deep layer shear values are decent for
August, 25 to 35 kts, influenced by increasing mid-level winds
ahead of the short wave. Along with MLCAPE values around 1000-1500
J/kg, a few strong to severe storms will be possible. The primary
concern will be damaging wind gusts and quarter sized hail,
conditions are similar to yesterday.

Will need to keep a close eye on rainfall rates, especially
localized heavy rainfall in far west central Oklahoma, north of
Elk City, where over 3 inches of rain fell last night. Any
additional rainfall could exacerbate into minor flood concerns.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 631 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016/

The August 24, 2016 12 UTC TAF discussion is below.

Generally expect VFR conditions at most terminals through the TAF
period. The exception will be with moderate to heavy showers and
thunderstorms that could briefly reduce visibility to MVFR or IFR

Showers are expected to be in vicinity of KGAG and KWWR this
morning, but are not expected to restrict flight conditions.
Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon
into the evening across northwest Oklahoma, which could impact KGAG
and KWWR. Some strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty/erratic
winds are possible. The probability for showers/storms to impact
KCSM/KHBR/KPNC is less (though not zero), so opted to not include
in these TAFs for now.

Otherwise, gusty south to south-southwest winds are expected at all
terminals through this afternoon.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 335 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016/

Seasonably anomalous southwest flow aloft (>3 standardized
anomaly at 500 mb) will continue unsettled weather, primarily
across western/northern Oklahoma and western north Texas through
Thursday. Ascent from shortwave troughs/vorticity maxima embedded
within the flow will result in persistent chances of showers and
thunderstorms. The chance of showers/storms decreases
substantially for locations farther southeast (i.e.,
central/southeast Oklahoma) where the flow weakens.

An effective cold front/boundary may enter northwest Oklahoma
Thursday; which may enhance the chance of convection. However,
southward propagation of the front will be relatively
slow/convectively driven as the associated shortwave trough lifts
northeastward toward the Great Lakes.

Effective bulk shear (>30 knots) and instability (MLCAPE >1500
J/kg) will be sufficient for strong to severe thunderstorms--
perhaps with transient supercellular characteristics--late
afternoon into the evening both today and Thursday.

By Friday, mid-level flow will weaken (reducing the potential for
severe storms); however, deeper moisture and embedded lobes of
enhanced vorticity are progged to rotate around the mid-level
ridge centered across the southeast United States. This will
increase the chance of showers/storms across the eastern half of
Oklahoma, perhaps even into Saturday.

General mid-level weakness/lowered heights across the central
Plains will maintain shower/storm chances through early next

Temperatures will continue to be near average through the forecast



Oklahoma City OK  93  72  92  69 /  10  10  20  20
Hobart OK         91  70  92  67 /  20  20  20  20
Wichita Falls TX  94  71  95  70 /  10  10  10  10
Gage OK           89  66  85  63 /  60  60  50  50
Ponca City OK     93  72  90  68 /  20  40  50  50
Durant OK         93  72  94  72 /   0   0  10  10


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