Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 021141
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
641 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH...ESPECIALLY
NEAR OKC/OUN. THE AFTERNOON TAFS MAY INCLUDE A MENTION OF THESE
GUSTS BUT WILL LEAVE THEM OUT FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES
REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST STORMS. THERE ARE STILL
MANY UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE DURATION OF THE STORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND TSRA MAY NEED TO BE REINTRODUCED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH AT PNC BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
LATE THIS MORNING...WITH MOST OTHER TERMINALS EXPERIENCING
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. CURRENTLY...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT ESE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
ANOTHER AREA OF ELEVATED MOIST CONVECTION HAS ALSO JUST DEVELOPED
ALONG AN INSTABILITY AXIS SE OF THE OKC METRO. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE...BUT A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY MANAGE TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO WESTERN OK AND
SE/S OK.

LATER TODAY A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL OK. DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THIS FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR. THE
TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN OK...AND THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL OK.
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND
30 TO 35 KT AND MLCAPE ~1500-2000 J/KG. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS...BUT LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ~7 C/KM. THE STORMS MAY MERGE INTO A SMALL COMPLEX
LATER TONIGHT ACROSS E CENTRAL OK AND MOVE INTO SE OK DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SW OK AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AND DRIFT EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE OK. A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY ON THE 4TH OF JULY AS ANOTHER...AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL...MID
TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPACTS THE REGION SATURDAY AM. RAIN
CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THIS WAVE FOR MOST
OF THE AREA...BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY ACROSS THE NE/E ZONES AS A WEAKER MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLIPS THESE ZONES. THE SAME STORY WILL
APPLY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EAST.

THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO NUDGE ITS WAY BACK OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WEST TEXAS MONDAY RESULTING IN WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR MOST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER A COLD
FRONT MOVING DOWN THE PLAINS AND INTO SW KS/NW OK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL THEN INCREASE WITH THIS FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPANDING
SOUTHWARD INTO AT LEAST CENTRAL OK TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FINALLY...BY
MIDWEEK...THE RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LIMIT ANY LOW POPS TO THE FAR NE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  92  71  88  70 /  40  70  40  50
HOBART OK         93  71  93  70 /  40  50  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  95  75  91  73 /  20  30  50  50
GAGE OK           92  66  89  67 /  50  30  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     91  70  89  68 /  30  30  30  30
DURANT OK         92  73  87  72 /  20  50  70  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/03/03


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