Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 251955
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
255 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Stratus on the back side of the low continues to slowly erode from
west to east this afternoon. Skies will generally clear by sunset
and winds will calm. However, dewpoints should remain mostly in
the 40s so do not expect very cold conditions. Lows should fall
into the upper 30s to upper 40s from north to south respectively
by tomorrow morning.

Severe storm chances appear fairly likely for tomorrow afternoon
and evening across central, northern, and eastern OK. Moisture
return will commence late tonight through tomorrow morning from
the Hill Country northward into western north TX. By late
afternoon, dewpoints will likely climb to near 60 for a few
locations near the Red River. The timing of the mid to upper low
will be advantageous for deep convective development somewhere
near or just west of the I35 corridor during the late afternoon
and early evening hours as instability peaks. Steep mid level
lapse rates will also be present during this time and could
support hail over the size of golf balls. However, it`s still
unclear how much instability/low level moisture will return in
time. Storm coverage also appears questionable based on moisture
profiles, with the highest chances east of I35 after sunset.
Lowered PoPs slightly to reflect this. In addition to large hail
and damaging winds, tornadoes may be possible given largely curved
hodographs, but again the limiting factor will be LCL heights/low
level moisture.

Most of the storms should exit our region to the east after ~ 09Z
tomorrow night as the mid to upper trough moves into NE OK, along
with mid to upper moisture. The next chance of storms will arrive
Tues night with the approach of a closed low. A few strong to
severe storms will be possible with this feature and accompanying
surface low near SW OK/W N TX Tue, and then again Wed across SE
OK. Widespread rainfall should develop through Wed, with QPF
amounts perhaps exceeding 2-3 inches for a few locations. After
Wed night, things will quiet down and temps will return to near
normal through the end of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  45  77  52  69 /   0  30  40  10
Hobart OK         46  79  49  71 /   0  10  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  48  85  51  74 /   0  10  10   0
Gage OK           43  76  43  70 /   0  20  20   0
Ponca City OK     41  74  50  66 /   0  40  70  10
Durant OK         49  80  57  74 /   0  40  60  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

26/03



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