Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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340
FXUS64 KOUN 201057
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
557 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

...Aviation Discussion...

&&

.AVIATION...

For the 12z TAFs:

Some convection has formed across western north Texas and far
southwest Oklahoma early this morning within a band of mid-level
moisture and weak ascent. This convection should decrease by mid
morning but could approach CSM/SPS/HBR. Otherwise isolated
thunderstorms will form this afternoon as destabilization occurs,
but the probability of any airport being impacted is quite low.
Light southwesterly winds will prevail, and should back to
southeasterly late in the day.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 336 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms are becoming more numerous near
Childress early this morning within a zone of subtle mid level
WAA. Expect these to continue to drift eastward and impact our SW
zone through about 12Z or so before finally weakening. Later
today, this slug of mid level moisture will move over central and
NE OK along with a cold pocket around 500 mb. Expect isolated
diurnal convection here. Isolated to widely scattered activity
will also be possible further west within deeper moisture plume. A
few strong storms, similar to yesterday, capable of damaging wind
gusts will be possible. Dewpoints will only drop a few degrees
across the west today with similar temps to yesterday for most
locations, and dewpoints in the mid 70s out east. Another heat
advisory has been hoisted for locations along and east of I35.

Very little has changed with the forecast over the next couple of
days. Isolated to widely scattered moist convection will be
possible over northern and western OK. The highest chances, before
the front arrives Tue, will be over northern OK Mon-early Tue with
a mid level shortwave trough. The highly anticipated cold front is
then expected to dive south Tue-early Wed. With convection
expected Tue morning over northern OK favored faster solutions
with the front and more progressive PoPs through Wed. Strong to
severe storms will accompany the front Tue. This will include the
threat of hail. Precip may linger near the Red River Wed, but
should come to an end for most of the area Thu. Precip chances
will then return by next weekend as the mid to upper ridge moves
back over the SW and NW flow impacts the Southern Plains. Several
shortwave troughs are depicted and will likely result in some
heavy rainfall impacting the region next weekend. PoPs will likely
be increased if this pattern is still anticipated by tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  95  74  93  74 /  10   0  10  10
Hobart OK         97  75  95  75 /  20  10   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  97  75  95  75 /  10   0   0   0
Gage OK           96  73  93  71 /  20  20  20  30
Ponca City OK     97  75  94  74 /  20  20  20  20
Durant OK         98  75  92  73 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ007-008-012-013-019-020-025-026-029>032-042-043-047-
     048-052.

TX...None.
&&

$$

12/03/01



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