Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 311153 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
653 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.AVIATION...
31/12Z TAFS...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED MAINLY KPNC THROUGH 17Z...AND
MAY SPREAD INTO KWWR/KGAG AND KOKC/KOUN SITS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING ALONG/IMMEDIATELY BEHIND REINFORCING COLD FRONT. AS DRIER
AIR MOVES IN AND MIXING OCCURS CLOUDS SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF
TERMINALS WITH SCT/FEW CLOUDS EXPECTED AFTER 17Z. GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE SEEN OVER ALL BUT FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TERMINALS
MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY 22-00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
EXPANDED FREEZING WARNING TO COVER ALL BUT A FEW OF OUR WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES. LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS NOT ALL THAT
CLEAR CUT WITH WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO DROP OFF COMPLETELY EXCEPT
FOR NORTH-CENTRAL THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WINDS WILL ACTUALLY
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT ACROSS FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. ANOTHER FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY PROGD TO DRIFT OVER THE REGION.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW THICK AND PERSISTENT THEY WILL BE SO WILL
GO WITH A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO LOW TEMP FORECAST ON MINS TONIGHT
WHICH ONLY CHANGES PREVIOUS FORECAST BY A FEW DEGREES. GREATEST
DECREASE IN TEMP FORECAST WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO SURFACE RIDGE AXIS AND DRIER AIR.
HARD FREEZE WILL BE LIKELY FROM AROUND PONCA CITY AND ENID...DOWN
THROUGH STILLWATER AND AREAS EAST OF OKC.

MODEST WARM-UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS FLOW RESPONDS TO INCOMING
LONGWAVE TROUGH. RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK WHERE NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. DAY 7
AND BEYOND MAY NEED POPS ADDED IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE WITH
ENERGY CUTTING OFF OVER NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  57  29  58  40 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         59  31  59  42 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  32  62  42 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           56  29  59  41 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     53  24  56  41 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         63  30  58  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ004>048-
     050>052.

TX...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ085-086-
     089-090.

&&

$$

06/99/11



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