Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KOUN 310905
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
405 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
BAND OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD S/W
TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WAS MOVING INTO PARTS OF
WESTERN OK. WILL SPREAD POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST AND NORTH FOR
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HI RES MODELS SHOW THIS PRECIP AREA
DIMINISHING BY MID MORNING AS S/W TROUGH LIFTS NEWD AND THUS WILL
LIMIT POPS TO THE MORNING. MAIN S/W TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING
INTO NW OK LATER TONIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE FA BUT SOME ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD INTO
FAR NRN OK AND WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW PRECIP CHANCES THERE.

SURFACE FRONT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO NRN OK BEFORE STALLING ON
MONDAY. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE MONDAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT WITH BETTER CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET INTERACTS
WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AGAIN BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN
OVER NORTHERN OK WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.

SOME PRECIP MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY BUT DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS RESIDUAL SURFACE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH
AND UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD. DRY AND VERY WARM WEATHER
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AS AREA REMAINS UNDER
INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGE.

MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE TOWARD THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEW ECMWF MORE
AGRESSIVE WITH FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION WHILE GFS KEEPS MORE
RIDGING ALOFT AND FRONT FARTHER NORTH. FOR NOW WILL NOT MAKE BIG
CHANGES AND LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES TO NRN PARTS OF THE FA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  96  75  97  74 /  10  10  10  20
HOBART OK         99  74  99  75 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  99  77 100  76 /   0  10  10   0
GAGE OK           98  72  93  68 /  20  20  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     96  76  96  70 /  10  20  20  50
DURANT OK         94  74  96  75 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/02



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.