Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 132040
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
340 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Primary forecast focus is on increasing rain and thunderstorm
chances associated with the passage of a cold front tomorrow
afternoon and overnight.

Currently, the suspect cold front has actually drifted southward
into far northwestern Oklahoma, stalling out near Woodward. Through
the evening, expect this boundary will lift slowly back north of the
OK/KS border in response to a weak impulse, visible on WV, lifting
across Iowa towards Lake Michigan late this evening. Late tonight,
there is a low chance of some scattered showers developing
along/near the boundary as it retreats northward after Midnight. Low
level moisture is sufficient, dew points in the 60s, and will hold
overnight into the early morning. Forcing will be driven primarily
by a strong low level jet, 30 to 40 kts, out of the south, but it
will veer through day break. Additionally, a decent 850mb
temperature gradient will exist, enhancing ascent. However, above
the boundary layer, the low levels remain dry due to veer of the
LLJ. Decent mid-level moisture is enough to support elevated
showers/thunder.

Saturday morning, scattered showers and thunder will likely linger
across far northwestern Oklahoma into southern Kansas. The remainder
of Oklahoma will remain dry through noon before the front begins to
push south/southeast towards US Highway 412 through the afternoon
hours. With abundant sunshine and continued warm air advection
through the day across the region, surface temperatures will reach
the upper 80s to lower 90s ahead of the surface trough. Combined
with dew points in the mid 60s, MLCAPE values will focus nearing
2000 J/Kg ahead of the boundary, a few strong to severe storms, with
a wind and hail concern, are possible. As Mr. Picca mentioned in his
SPC Day One Outlook, the veered profiles through the low-levels will
more than likely temper any concern for tornadoes in Oklahoma. Into
the evening, the front will begin to accelerate south, with
increasing convection along the boundary with strong wind gusts
becoming the concern as it surges toward the Red River through
early Sunday Morning.

So, overall, the greatest severe concern will be in northern
Oklahoma through the late afternoon and evening. However, this will
be dependent on the influence from overnight showers/convection,
cloud cover, remnant outflow, etc. Elevated convection is primarily
expected, with a hail and wind concern.

Sunday, wide swing in temperatures behind the frontal passage, with
northwest flow dominating. Highs will top out in the 60s, making for
a fairly pleasant fall day. For the remainder of the forecast, well
through next week, expect dry conditions, with a steady warming
trend topping out with highs in the 70s each day from Tuesday
through the end of the week.

Kurtz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  69  89  52  64 /   0   0  90  10
Hobart OK         69  87  51  66 /   0   0  90  10
Wichita Falls TX  68  90  56  68 /   0   0  80  20
Gage OK           63  85  44  64 /  30  50  50   0
Ponca City OK     65  88  50  64 /  10  40  90  10
Durant OK         70  89  58  67 /   0   0  70  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

25/04



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