Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
000
FXUS64 KOUN 130349
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1049 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024
Key Messages:
-Critical to extreme fire weather conditions are expected across
western Oklahoma and north Texas for warm, dry, and windy
conditions.
-Low probability (10 to 20%) of severe thunderstorms along and
east of I-35 with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts.
Meteorological Details: A mid-level trough with a speed max is
forecast to lift into the Southern Plains with strengthening
surface cyclogenesis in southwest Kansas. In response, the low-
level thermal ridge (LLTR) across west Texas today will advance
eastward with a sharpening dryline into western Oklahoma and
western north Texas.
West of the dryline, deep, vertical mixing to ~600 mb will result
in wind gusts to near 50 mph and relative humidity values falling
to around 15% or lower. The combination of low relative humidity
and windy conditions will result in critical to extreme fire
weather conditions near the 100th meridian. ERC-G values across
northwest Oklahoma will range from the 50th to 75th percentile in
a heavy fine fuel loading environment, which will provide a
volatile fire environment.
As a result of both the extreme weather conditions and volatile
fuels, the Fire Weather Watch was upgraded to a Red Flag Warning
where confidence is highest for the overlap of weather and fuels.
There is more uncertainty farther east, as it will depend on how
far east the dryline advances (hence, we kept that area in a Fire
Weather Watch).
East of the dryline (which will be close to I-35), there is a
conditional threat for showers and thunderstorms. The conditional
threat will be dependent if there is sufficient moisture and
ascent to break the cap. Convective-allowing models indicate the
probability is quite low at this time; however, forecast soundings
indicate the environment will be favorable for severe
thunderstorms, including supercells, if thunderstorms develop
(MLCAPE ~2000 J/kg and effective bulk shear ~50 knots).
Significant, generally zonal cloud layer shear at ~75 knots
will provide an environment capable of large hail (potentially
significant).
Mahale
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024
By Thursday afternoon, a trailing cold front will advance into
northwest Oklahoma. As the cold front approaches southeast
Oklahoma, showers and thunderstorms are likely Thursday night.
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible with MLCAPE of at
least 2500 J/kg and effective bulk shear ~40 knots. A cooler air
mass will advect southward in the wake of the cold front with high
temperatures only in the 50s and 60s deg F on Friday.
There will be additional chances of showers and thunderstorms at
least across southern Oklahoma and north Texas through Saturday as
subtle shortwave troughs lift into the Southern Plains. In
addition, temperatures through the extended period look to remain
cool (~60s deg F) with a persistent trough across the Great Lakes
region.
Mahale
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1047 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024
The probability of LIFR cigs is decreasing across the area,
although there is still a low chance (~15%) of this occurring.
Otherwise, expect mostly brief IFR cigs across central and west
central OK after ~11Z. Wind speeds will remain fairly light
tonight, but increase again after 15Z from the south. Some gusts
will exceed 25 kt.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 55 80 57 77 / 0 10 10 20
Hobart OK 50 81 48 75 / 0 0 0 10
Wichita Falls TX 58 85 57 80 / 0 0 0 30
Gage OK 43 80 41 70 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 48 80 54 76 / 0 10 10 10
Durant OK 59 78 63 80 / 0 10 20 70
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ004-005-
009>011-014-015-021-033-034.
Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for OKZ006-016-017-022-023-035>038-044.
TX...Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ083-084-
087.
Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for TXZ085-086-088-089.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...03