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000
FXUS64 KOUN 012340
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
540 PM CST SUN DEC 1 2013

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS DEALING WITH FOG AND LIFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT LIFR CONDITIONS WITH FG WILL
DEVELOP AT KOKC...KOUN...AND KPNC 01-06Z. THESE CONDITIONS MAY
SPREAD WEST TO INCLUDE KLAW AND PERHAPS KSPS. CONDITIONS MAY GO
BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS MAINLY 10-15Z AT THESE SITES. EVEN KHBR AND
KCSM MAY EXPERIENCE SOME FOG AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT THE LOCATIONS MENTIONED ABOVE AFTER
15Z...THOUGH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER BEYOND 18Z NEAR
KOKC...KOUN...AND KPNC.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CST SUN DEC 1 2013/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG...SOME DENSE...EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING NEAR AND EAST OF OKLAHOMA CITY AND WICHITA FALLS. WARMER
WEATHER ALSO EXPECTED TOMORROW AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF STRONG COLD
FRONT WHICH MODELS AGREE WILL MOVE IN LATE TUESDAY. BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY...ALL OF THE CWA SHOULD BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MUCH
COLDER AIR. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING WESTERN U.S.
LONGWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
AT LEAST ONE OR TWO EPISODES OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY. GFS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AND LOOKS OVERDONE. REGARDLESS...FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT
ACCUMULATING SNOWS AND ICE WILL OCCUR OVER PARTS OF OUR CWA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT NOT HIGHLY CONFIDENT ON EXACT LOCATION
AND AMOUNT. THERE IS MODEL CONSENSUS THAT THE ICE/SNOW LINE WILL
BE CLOSE TO THE I-44 CORRIDOR...SO WE HAVE THAT GOING FOR US RIGHT
NOW. WINTER STORM OUTLOOK...UNDER THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
HEADER...HAS BEEN ISSUED.

WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH CONTINUED SWLY FLOW ABOVE DEEP COLD AIRMASS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND WITH HINTS AT WEAK WAVES EJECTING...WILL
MENTION FLURRIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT DO NOT SEE ACCUMULATIONS
AFTER FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  39  65  40  67 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         36  65  37  69 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  38  69  40  76 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           30  67  33  56 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     35  64  40  63 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         44  65  45  74 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17