479
FXUS64 KOUN 071733
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1233 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1226 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

- Low to moderate rain/thunderstorm chances continue through at
  least mid-week.

- Hot and humid conditions later this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Most of the storms moving through central Oklahoma have dissipated.
Meanwhile, a corridor of higher shear (30 kts effective bulk shear)
and instability (SBCAPE of 2000 joules) along the western OK / TX
border is allowing storms to persist southward a bit longer and
farther there. Main hazard will be a low risk for downburst winds
and localized flash flooding from slow moving storms.

Another round of storms coming off the high plains is expected to
approach northwest Oklahoma overnight toward dawn, though by this
time it should be on a weakening trend. The instability axis runs
along or just west of the OK / TX border, suggesting the complex
will turn southward through our western counties. Again, damaging
winds and localized flooding will be the main concerns if storms can
maintain any strength.

Widely scattered showers and storms are expected again along I-35
this afternoon, where PWATs are greater. Some CAMs also suggest a
few isolated storms forming along another moisture axis running
through northwest Oklahoma during the afternoon. Otherwise another
partly cloud day with temperatures at or just below normal.

Northwest flow will bring another chance for a decaying MCS to
approach northwest Oklahoma overnight.

Day

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

A shortwave is expected to move through on Tuesday along with a
surface boundary, enhancing rain chances across the area. We`ve got
a marginal risk across most of our forecast area for severe storms
with damaging winds as the primary hazard.

As this wave pushes out some of the moisture, we should see a break
from these widely scattered diurnal showers on Wednesday. Mostly
clear skies will also allow us to warm up into the low to mid 90s.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Northwest flow continues into late week with MCS chances resuming
Thursday night. Temperatures are expected to be in the 90s Thursday
and Friday, including some heat indices near 105 in southeast parts
of the forecast area.

Current models show a cold front approaching Friday night (though
the strength of this system is subject to some synoptic
uncertainty). This will bring a brief cooldown and (you guessed it)
more rain chances.

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Generally, outside of any thunderstorms, unrestricted ceilings
are visibilities are expected.

MVFR stratus at KSPS is expected to become VFR within the next
hour. Elsewhere, scattered cumulus clouds generally around 3,000
to 5,000 ft are expected this afternoon. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected across southeast Oklahoma (KDUA), which
may result in brief reduction in visibility and gusty winds.
PROB30 was included at KDUA to account for this.

Additional thunderstorms are possible tonight into the day
tomorrow, but the chance is too low to include in the TAFs. There
is a higher chance of showers/storms just beyond the current TAF
period.

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  88  72  91  71 /  20  10  20  40
Hobart OK         92  71  94  70 /  20  20  10  30
Wichita Falls TX  90  73  94  72 /  20  10  20  20
Gage OK           91  68  93  68 /  20  30  20  10
Ponca City OK     90  70  91  70 /  20  10  30  30
Durant OK         91  74  92  73 /  40  30  50  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...10