Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 260344
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1045 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.AVIATION...
WILL CONT WITH VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST. A SMALL COMPLEX OF STORMS
IN SOUTHERN KANSAS WILL DRIFT SOUTH TOWARD NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...
BUT FOR NOW WILL NOT MENTIONIN THE TAFS AS EXPECT STORMS TO
DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO THE STATE.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

.UPDATE...
UPDATED PRECIP/WX...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS S/SWRN KS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD
S/SE... INCHING EVER CLOSER TO THE OK/KS BORDER. RADAR TRENDS AND
IR SAT REVEAL A SMALL COMPLEX DEVELOPING ALONG A NARROW REGION OF
H850 CONVERGENCE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. AN OVERALL SLOW EVOLUTION... FROM SPARSE OBS IN KS... IT
APPEARS CURRENT CONVECTION IS FEEDING ON A MINOR COLD POOL AND
POSSIBLY TAPPING INTO THE MODEST DEVELOPING LLJ. HRRR HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT... ALBEIT BULLISH WITH CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER... WITH CURRENT RADAR AND SAT TRENDS AND QPF DEVELOPMENT
FROM THE NAM/GFS AND SEVERAL FLAVORS OF THE HIRES WRF... EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO REACH PORTIONS OF NRN OK. IN RESPONSE... INCREASED
PRECIP CHANCES ACCORDINGLY.

ONE OR TWO STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS CONVECTION MOVES INTO
NRN OK EARLY SUN MORNING. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR APPEAR SUPPORTIVE
OF SMALL HAIL... POSSIBLY NICKEL SIZED. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONT THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTN AND THEN DRIFT SOUTH TOWARD NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA IN THE 03-06Z
TIMEFRAME. CHANCES HOWEVER REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS
POINT.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE HEAT IS ON.

EXTENDED THE HEAT ADVISORY EAST OF HIGHWAY 81 FOR SUNDAY AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY.

BETWEEN 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 2 AM TONIGHT...A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM AND/OR MOVE INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCES NORTH OF A GAGE TO WOODWARD TO MEDFORD
LINE. IF STORMS OCCUR...WHICH IS A BIG IF...DUE TO STRONG CAPPING
AND LITTLE FORCING FOR LIFT...THEY COULD PRODUCE STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HOT AND SUNNY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED.
ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY. THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY STORM AND RAIN
FORMATION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONT MAY BRING
SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AS WELL AS LOW CHANCES FOR
RAIN. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL APPEARS UNLIKELY.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  98  73  99 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         76 102  75 102 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  76 100  75 101 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           74 100  73 101 /  20  10  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     77  98  76  99 /  20  10  10   0
DURANT OK         75  98  76  99 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ007-008-012-
     013-018>020-024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/30



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