Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 230228 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
928 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

Storms developed west of the fa late this afternoon/evening. Some
of this activity has very slowly moved towards western parts of
the fa. Radar showing area of storms that would affect parts of
southwest OK and western north TX is trying to develop into an
mcs. As the llj increases this area of activity could be
maintained and move across parts of the area overnight into
Monday morning. What path it will take is still a question with
models showing it traveling NE, E, or SE. Current thoughts are
that the NE track is not out of the question but is the least
likely. Severe storms will be possible with large hail and strong
wind gusts the main concerns, with wind being a bigger concern if
the area can develop into an mcs. Made some adjustments to POP/WX
grids to show these thoughts. Also raised low temperatures a few
degrees due to moist airmass with dewpoints in the mid 60s to
around 70 with drier air not expected and cloudy skies. All
updates out soon.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 645 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/

23/00Z TAF discussion follows.

VFR conditions should prevail first several hours of forecast
although scattered TSRA may begin to affect western Oklahoma
terminals after 02z. Mention of TSRA will be confined to western
Oklahoma and KSPS terminals this forecast cycle as confidence
relatively low for impacts over central Oklahoma. MVFR conditions
will be common after 06Z through 18Z with some IFR possible
west central Oklahoma due to lower stratus development. Gusty
south/southeast winds will prevail.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 209 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/

Oklahoma and the southern plains are now under the influence of
the large upper trough over the western U.S. this influence will
continue through at least Friday. The first minor wave, well
ahead of this storm, is expected to cross the southern Texas
panhandle early Monday. In addition to the slow eastward movement
of thunderstorms over the texas panhandle tonight, this feature
is the reason for relatively higher pops across southwest Oklahoma
and adjacent parts of Texas early Monday. the dry line will be a
player Monday afternoon over the central Texas panhandle and again
Tuesday probably closer to the western Oklahoma border. Severe
weather in moderate shear and high buoyancy is expected to
initiate near the dry line both days. Mesoscale boundaries that
result from this will provide smaller-scale focus in the near
term. By Thursday the upper trough approaches Oklahoma and shear
increases. It still appears that Thursday is the most likely day
for widespread severe weather in the southern plains. This system
is finally expected to lift northeast of Oklahoma on Friday;
however, latest model runs indicate part of the trough could
linger into Saturday, but with weaker flow aloft.


Oklahoma City OK  67  79  66  82 /  40  40  30  20
Hobart OK         68  82  67  88 /  70  20  40  40
Wichita Falls TX  69  83  67  87 /  80  40  40  20
Gage OK           67  86  65  91 /  30  30  30  20
Ponca City OK     66  79  67  83 /  30  30  30  30
Durant OK         67  81  68  83 /  50  40  30  30


.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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