Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
FXUS64 KOUN 252327 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
627 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016
.AVIATION...26/00z TAF Issuance...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period.
Scattered to Broken mid to high clouds will persist into the
evening and overnight. Increasing cloud cover, Broken to Overcast,
mid level ceilings are expected to develop after midnight as a
frontal boundary approaches from the northwest. There is a chance
of showers and thunderstorms with this activity early Wednesday
morning, near day break, which may impact KPNC. South and
southwest winds will increase ahead of the frontal boundary,
shifting to the north behind the front late in the period.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 329 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016/
A shortwave trough aloft will bring a chance of
showers/thunderstorms to about the northeast half of Oklahoma late
tonight into early Wednesday. Instability, convective inhibition,
and vertical wind shear do not appear to come together to support
much in the way of strong/severe storms, although we can`t rule
out some strong/marginally severe storms tomorrow afternoon over
the eastern 1/3 of Oklahoma. The afternoon convection will be
highly dependent on what happens earlier in the day.
After this system moves away Wednesday evening, a ridge aloft
will build over the region...much like a summer weather pattern.
No meaningful change to this pattern occurs until at least the
early part of next week.
A surface trough to our northwest will generate enough of a
pressure gradient on Friday to cause elevated fire weather
concerns over much of northwestern Oklahoma, given the expected
dry and warm conditions that afternoon.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 78 63 80 58 / 0 10 40 10
Hobart OK 79 64 81 56 / 0 10 10 10
Wichita Falls TX 80 63 84 59 / 0 10 10 10
Gage OK 80 60 80 47 / 0 10 0 0
Ponca City OK 80 65 77 52 / 0 40 50 0
Durant OK 80 61 81 61 / 0 10 20 20