Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 270729
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
129 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO PRECIP/WX THROUGH 12Z...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUICK MORNING UPDATE FOR PRECIP/WX THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING.
OBSERVING RADAR TRENDS AND LIMITED REPORTS FROM MPING THIS AM...
THE NARROW LINE OF PRECIP THAT HAS DEVELOPED BETWEEN THE I-44 AND
I-35 CORRIDORS IS PRIMARILY RAIN... WITH SOME SLEET/SNOW MIXED
IN. A FEW MPING REPORTS AND RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS... AS
A WARM LAYER REMAINS PRESENT AROUND 800-850MB. SFC TEMPS REMAIN
WELL ABOVE FREEZING... SO EXPECT NO ISSUES WITH REGARDS TO TRAVEL.
07Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS THE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO FAR SERN OK...
WITH THE FREEZING LINE NEAR AN ERICK TO WATONGA TO CHEROKEE LINE
IN NWRN OK. GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR... RAP AND WRF STILL DEVELOP A
LIGHT BAND OF SNOW FROM SWRN OK INTO CENTRAL OK THROUGH SUNRISE.
ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR... A DUSTING TO A QUARTER OF AN
INCH AS SFC TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. 2 INCH
SOIL TEMPS FROM THE OKMESONET AT 115 AM ARE STILL IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S. EXPECT MINOR TO NO IMPACT ON TRAFFIC AT THIS TIME.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 914 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014/

UPDATE...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS OVERNIGHT AS RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST
CHANCES FOR -SN HAVE DECREASED SOMEWHAT ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA. ALSO INTRODUCED ISO THUNDER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OK WITH
RECENT HEAVY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS
LARGELY UNCHANGED. STILL EXPECT LIGHT SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
FROM ROUGHLY I-44 WEST THROUGH SATURDAY AM. ACCUMULATIONS IF
ANY...WILL BE QUITE LOW...THOUGH ANY SNOWBANDS THAT DEVELOP MAY
LOCALLY LEAD TO A DUSTING TO QUARTER INCH OF SNOW FROM
NORTHWESTERN THROUGH WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.
IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINOR GIVEN GROUND TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING...BUT
EXPOSED ROADS SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES MAY BECOME SLICK IN A
FEW PLACES THAT SEE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014/

AVIATION...
COLD FRONT NEAR I-44 CORRIDOR WILL CONT TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING WITH NORTH WINDS THROUGH REMAINDER OF FORECAST. A FEW
GUSTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST SITES MAY EXCEED 20KTS THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY... ESPECIALLY BY AFTN. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST THIS EVENING
AND LIGHT RAIN NEAR I-44 CORRIDOR... HOWEVER CHANCES REMAIN TOO
LOW TO MENTION IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WAVE IS LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TODAY. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS OBSERVED ON RADAR
IN THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE IS VIRGA AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE. THERE IS A BIT MORE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLES AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
AS EVIDENCED BY THE STRATUS... SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS THERE.
WILL ALSO KEEP CHANCE POPS EAST WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
DEVELOPMENT. BUT OVERALL FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW... IT DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE TOO SIGNIFICANT OF AN EVENT OVER THE AREA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND OF DECREASING POPS AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS.

THE OTHER MAIN WEATHER ISSUE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER WEATHER NEXT WEEK. THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD WITH THIS
AND DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  39  25  46  28 /  20   0   0   0
HOBART OK         40  22  46  26 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  42  26  48  31 /  20   0   0   0
GAGE OK           37  18  45  20 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     39  22  43  25 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         44  29  47  31 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/23


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