Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KOUN 020724
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
224 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
GOOD MORNING... MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS... EXCEPT FOR A DECAYING MCS THAT CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER
THE LLANO ESTACADO OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS. ONLY CONCERN TODAY IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTN ACROSS FAR SWRN OK
AND WRN N TX. IN RESPONSE TO A SFC TROUGH BUILDING INTO THE
PANHANDLES THROUGH THE DAY... WAA WILL INCREASE ACROSS NRN TX/SWRN
OK AHEAD OF THE BUILDING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. MOST RECENT RUNS
OF MESOSCALE GUIDANCE... HRRR/VARIOUS WRFS... TTU/NMM/ARW... AND
THE NAM... DEVELOP SOME LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS NRN TX INTO FAR SWRN
OK. IF ANY SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP... COVERAGE WILL BE SMALL. FELT
CONFIDENT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY... GIVEN DECENT
ISENTROPIC RESPONSE. GOOD 310 AND 315K ASCENT WILL LIKELY PROVIDE
ENOUGH MID/UPPER LVL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER. NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... THE STOUT RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO
A STEADY INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES EACH DAY... WITH HIGHS WELL IN THE
80S TO LOW 90S BY THU/FRI ACROSS MOST OF THE SRN PLAINS. WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS CENTERED THROUGH TX/OK... MCS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY
EACH NIGHT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS... WITH EACH COMPLEX TRACKING E/SE
OFF THE CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS OF NE/KS... WITH A CHANCE OF
CLIPPING PORTIONS OF NRN OK POSSIBLY FRI THROUGH SUN. THE MOST
RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE SRN EXTENT
OF PRECIP INTO OK FOR FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT... BUT GIVEN THE
SETUP... ANY SUBTLE VARIATION IN THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL
HAVE AN IMPACT ON SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER...
AND HOW FAR SOUTH ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS TRACK. WITH THAT SAID... THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  84  67  86  67 /  10  10   0  10
HOBART OK         87  66  89  65 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  88  67  90  66 /  20   0   0   0
GAGE OK           87  65  89  66 /  10   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     84  68  87  69 /  10  10  10  10
DURANT OK         85  65  86  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

30/04



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.