Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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739
FXUS64 KOUN 270247 AAA
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
947 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.UPDATE...
adjusted rain chances tonight...mainly to increase them in
western oklahoma...and decrease them near and east of i-35.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
severe thunderstorms with heavy rainfall will continue tonight
mainly over western oklahoma and western north texas. severe
threat is much lower near and east of i-35 tonight.

latest radars indicated two main clusters of severe storms...
one near woodward and cheyenne...and another near frederick
and vernon. these storms will continue to push east for
the next several hours...but will move into a more capped
and more stable airmass with lower instability across
the central third of oklahoma. overall...think these storms
will weaken over the next few hours.

still think large hail...damaging winds...and very heavy rainfall
are the main hazards with these storms for the next few hours in
western oklahoma and western north texas. tornado risk appears to
be fairly low and only confined to western oklahoma and western
north texas.

products will be updated shortly.

mbs

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 645 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Aviation discussion for the 00z TAFs is below.

AVIATION...
Have very low confidence in the TAFs. Overall...think VFR
conditions will occur.

Some MVFR conditions are likely to occur across the area...mainly
07-16z...but not sure exactly where and when.

Isolated to numerous TSRA will occur across Oklahoma and north
Texas for the next 24 hours. Determining exactly where and when
this activity occurs remain uncertain. Kept VCTS and TEMPO TSRA
mention at sites in western Oklahoma and western north Texas
through 06z where confidence of storms is higher.

Non-convective low level wind shear may form 01-13z across parts
of the area...but did not mention due to low confidence of
occurrence.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 343 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...
With the exception of far northwest Oklahoma, most of the western
third of Oklahoma and adjacent area of northern Texas are clear
to partly cloudy. Weak height falls will overspread the
Panhandles late this afternoon and evening in advance of a trough
over Colorado/New Mexico. At least widely scattered thunderstorms
should develop along and near a dryline in extreme western
Oklahoma/far eastern Texas panhandle. Extreme instability and deep
layer shear will result in supercells capable of producing very
large hail...damaging RFD winds and perhaps tornadoes. With better
forcing compared with the past few days...storms should become
scattered perhaps widespread during the evening and overnight. By
late evening and overnight the main severe weather risk will be
damaging winds and hail.

Most model suggest storms will be ongoing across at least south
central and southeast Oklahoma Friday morning. There should be enough
recovery by Friday afternoon, to see widely scattered severe
storms.

Weak shortwave ridging Friday night through Saturday may provide
a lull in thunderstorm activity as the holiday weekend begins.

Thunderstorm chances will return by Sunday and last through at
least mid week. The overall flow Sunday into Monday will be rather
weak...but moderate to high instability may result in severe
thunderstorms each day.

A weak cold front may move across the Southern Plains Tuesday
into Tuesday night. This may bring some brief relief from rather
high humidity currently in place.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  66  82  63  86 /  50  40  20  10
Hobart OK         64  91  60  88 /  70  10  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  65  90  62  89 /  50  40  10  10
Gage OK           60  86  55  87 /  80  20  10  10
Ponca City OK     67  82  63  84 /  50  40  40  10
Durant OK         68  80  67  86 /  40  70  50  20

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

17/17



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