Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 062258
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
600 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

.AVIATION..
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BACK AND
DIMINISH DURING THE FIRST HOUR OR SO OF THE FOREAST BEFORE ONCE
AGAIN INCREASING AND VEERING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE
MORNING.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 233 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS SQUARELY FOCUSED ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES MID-WEEK.

CURRENTLY... TEMPS HAVE RISEN STEADILY THROUGH THE DAY... WITH TEMPS
THROUGH 2PM IN THE LOW/MID 90S. STILL ANTICIPATE HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S BY LATE THIS AFTN. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL BUILDING OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO
TRANSPORT WARMER 850MB TEMPS OFF THE CAPROCK INTO WRN OK. AT THE
SURFACE... SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS SUPPLIED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. NOT AN OPPRESSIVE HEAT... BUT MORE OF A STIFLING HEAT... WITH
MAX HEAT INDICES MON-TUES IN THE UPPER 90S/LOWER 100S. THOSE WORKING
OR PLAYING OUTSIDE NEED TO STAY AWARE OF THE HEAT... RECOGNIZE THE
SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION... TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS... AND DRINK
PLENTY OF WATER.

RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IS ON THE WAY MID-WEEK... WITH A FRONT SLOWLY
PUSHING INTO NRN OK THROUGH NOON TUE. IN RESPONSE... SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE TUE INTO WED AS IT CONTINUES
TO DROP SOUTHWARD. THROUGH WED INTO THU... AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS
OVER THE WRN CONUS... SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
AS THE FRONT LIFTS N/NE. HAVE SOME DOUBTS AS TO THE AGGRESSIVE QPF
GENERATION OF THE MID-RANGE GUIDANCE... GFS/ECMWF... WITH WARM 850-
700MB TEMPS... THE CAP WILL LIKELY PLAY A ROLE IN DEVELOPMENT...
ESPECIALLY WHEN COMBINED WITH THE RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING OF THE
FRONT. WITH THAT SAID... SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS LIMITED... BUT
ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY EXIST WED AFTN FOR A FEW ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS... HAIL AND WIND WOULD BE THE HAZARDS. REMAINING
PRECIP CHANCES WILL EXIT E/NE THU MORNING AS THE H500 RIDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE ROCKIES.

THE H500 RIDGE WILL TAKE CONTROL BEYOND THU THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK... WITH AFTN HIGHS PUSHING BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  97  75  98 /   0   0   0  10
HOBART OK         72  99  74  99 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  99  76  98 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           70 100  72  94 /   0   0   0  20
PONCA CITY OK     74  99  75  93 /   0   0  10  30
DURANT OK         72  96  75  97 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$


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