Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 310332
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1032 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS MAY OCCUR IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA UNTIL MID-
DAY SUNDAY; OTHERWISE MVFR CONDITIONS AND DECREASING WINDS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 915 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. AS SFC
TEMPERATURES COOL...AND SFC HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD...EXPECT AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WHERE GROUND MOISTURE REMAINS
RELATIVELY HIGH IN THE WAKE OF RECENT RAINS. WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT LOW LYING AREAS AND RIVER BEDS MAY SEE
PATCHY DENSE FOG. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS FURTHER
EAST. WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FALL INTO THE
50S MOST PLACES...AND A FEW 40 DEGREE LOWS WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA BY EARLY SUNDAY.

AUSTIN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
NORTH WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING. OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS
WILL OCCUR SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE CEILINGS DISSIPATE MID-DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 216 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN CONTINUES TO DECREASE AND MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. THE RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO END BY LATE AFTN. MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH SHIFTING EAST
OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND
THE BACK SIDE WHICH MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS. HOWEVER... WITH
THE DRIER AIRMASS THAT HAS MOVED INTO THE FA... THINK THIS WILL BE A
LITTLE BIT MORE DIFFICULT SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND.

MODELS SHOW THAT THE TROUGH BECOMES A CLOSED LOW THAT LINGERS OVER
THE SE U.S. DESPITE RIDGING DEVELOPING BEHIND THE LOW ANY OTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW MAY CAUSE A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WHEN THE UPPER
LOW IS CLOSER TO THE REGION. HOWEVER... IDENTIFYING WHEN AND IF
THESE DISTURBANCES OCCUR IS DIFFICULT SO WITH THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK... FOR NOW. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT IF DO GET SOME RAIN... IT WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD AND CAUSE THE
KIND OF PROBLEMS WE HAVE HAD OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.

MODELS SHOW RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE
ECMWF MAINTAINS THE RIDGING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WHICH MEANS VERY
LITTLE RAIN CHANCE THROUGH THE WEEK. THE GFS DOES SHOW A SHORTWAVE
BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE A LITTLE BIT AND MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
LATE NEXT WEEK. IF THIS HAPPENS... SOME SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. DESPITE THE GFS
SOLUTION... WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  75  58  79 /   0   0   0  10
HOBART OK         53  78  59  81 /   0   0  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  79  60  83 /   0   0  10  10
GAGE OK           47  77  59  83 /   0   0  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     54  75  56  78 /   0   0   0  10
DURANT OK         58  76  60  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/09/09


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