Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 281732
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1232 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING ACROSS W OK...AS TSRA
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM ARRIVE FROM THE W. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE COMING N FROM TX WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS AND
TSRA OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING TO MOST OF N TX AND OK. A
WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO S OK TOMORROW MORNING...WITH
LOW CLOUDS AROUND IT...AND TSRA OCCURRING MAINLY TO THE NW OF IT.
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING THIS EVENING IN THE FAR
W...AND OVERNIGHT ELSEWHERE...CONTINUING INTO TOMORROW. AREAS S OF
THE WARM FRONT...WHICH MAY NOT INCLUDE ANY TAF SITES BEFORE 18Z
TOMORROW...SHOULD SEE CLEARING...FOLLOWED BY NEW TSRA DEVELOPMENT
LATER IN THE DAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW FOR MOST
OF THESE FEATURES...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR GOOD WEATHER
THIS AFTERNOON.

CMS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1104 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

UPDATE...
DECREASED RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. INCREASED HIGHS TODAY SLIGHTLY
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.

DISCUSSION...
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL MAY OCCUR TONIGHT.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATED LITTLE CLOUD COVER OVER
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THUS...THINK HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST DUE TO GOOD HEATING IN A
DRY AIRMASS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
PANHANDLES MAY MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOM AND FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AS EARLY AS 7 PM THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN HAZARD THIS EVENING...THOUGH
THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY WILL STAY OVER THE PANHANDLES. BASED ON
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE...STORM COVERAGE BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT MAY
BE LIMITED. THUS...DECREASED RAIN CHANCES A BIT THIS EVENING.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN NORTH TEXAS AND/OR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND MOVE
NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THESE ELEVATED STORMS
MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALLS AS WELL.

PRODUCTS WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE MOISTURE REMAINS LURKING IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS
AND WILL BEGIN SPREADING NORTH AGAIN TODAY. THE MAIN PUSH OF
MOISTURE WILL BE INTO THE SOUTHWEST ZONES AND INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AS SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE
DEEPENING CYCLONE OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO. STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS BOTH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE IN THE
UPSLOPE REGIME AND THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE... AND ALSO
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS NEAR THE WARM FRONT. PRECIP FROM BOTH AREAS
WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES
OVER THE FRONTAL ZONE.

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER AGAIN TOMORROW...
ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL OF INTENSITY IS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THE PASSAGE OF A FIRST WAVE. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MAY STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
EVEN IN THE MORNING. PRECIP COVERAGES DECREASES FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY... BUT ANOTHER STRONG WAVE APPROACHES THE 100TH
MERIDIAN AROUND 00Z TOMORROW. THE MAIN QUESTIONS ARE... HOW MUCH
RECOVERY AND DESTABILIZATION WILL THERE BE AFTER THE EARLY
STORMS... WHERE WILL THE WARM FRONT BE LOCATED... AND HOW
WIDESPREAD WILL BE ANY POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT. THERMODYNAMIC AND
SHEAR PROFILES FROM THE NAM AND TO SOME EXTEND THE GFS POINT TO A
POTENT COMBINATION OF SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS... BUT THIS IS
STILL HIGHLY CONDITIONAL ON THE ANSWERS TO THE QUESTIONS ABOVE.
WILL INCLUDE THE MENTION OF SEVERE IN THE ZONES /BOTH THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING/... BUT THE SPECIFIC
POTENTIAL FOR WHAT TO EXPECT IN SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW IS NOT
COMPLETELY APPARENT YET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  78  57  76  53 /   0  60  70  50
HOBART OK         78  58  79  49 /  10  70  70  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  61  84  53 /   0  60  60  20
GAGE OK           72  52  70  44 /  20  70  70  40
PONCA CITY OK     73  55  74  53 /   0  50  70  70
DURANT OK         85  62  78  61 /   0  60  80  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/23/23


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