Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 230344
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1044 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFs - Mostly VFR ceilings this TAF period. However, a few
sites may see MVFR ceilings Saturday morning before improving back
to VFR. Southerly gusty winds are expected again Saturday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 930 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017/

UPDATE...
No significant updates to the package tonight.

DISCUSSION...
Forecast looks in good shape as the storms in the Texas and
Oklahoma panhandles are dissipating and should remain well west of
the forecast area. The only adjustment tonight was to increase
cloud cover this evening across the west with the cirrus blowoff
from the panhandle convection.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 610 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017/

AVIATION...
0Z TAFs - VFR/MVFR, but mostly VFR, ceilings expected this TAF
period. Gusty southerly winds will return Saturday in several
locations.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 320 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The atmosphere over Oklahoma and north Texas is uncapped or
lightly-capped, with moderate instability available. However,
there is a lack of any focusing mechanism, so shower/thunderstorm
chances will remain very low into this evening. As the available
instability diminishes over the next day or so, chances will
diminish further.

Then, as a large upper-level trough shifts slowly east this
weekend, rain chances will enter far western Oklahoma early in
the weekend, then spread east Sunday night and Monday. Some
rainfall amounts, especially over our western counties, may be
fairly heavy.

There is still significant uncertainty regarding how quickly the
rain will end (midweek) from north to south. In southern Oklahoma
and north Texas, rain chances (15% or more) persist through the
end of the forecast.

Although the cold front associated with the upper trough will not
reach our forecast area until Monday, the clouds and rain
preceding the front will result in cooler daytime temperatures,
and even somewhat cooler morning low temperatures. The bigger drop
in morning lows, though, will await the arrival of the front.

CmS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  71  88  69  87 /  10   0   0   0
Hobart OK         72  89  69  86 /  10   0   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  72  91  70  90 /  10   0   0  10
Gage OK           70  87  68  79 /  10  10  10  50
Ponca City OK     72  90  69  88 /   0   0   0  10
Durant OK         70  90  70  90 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

26/25/25



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