Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 152352
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
552 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
Stratus will move north across central Oklahoma from Texas during
the day Thursday reaching OKC area after midday. Winds will become
light southeast Thursday morning except stronger in northwestern
Oklahoma through the day.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 340 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The cold front has cleared the area with the clouds lingering
across the southern part of the area. The clouds are expected to
start spreading north again tonight as winds just above the
surface starting coming back around to southerly. The surface
winds do become southerly as well Thursday. This return to
southerly flow will bring low-level moisture back into the area
quickly with associated stratus development and at least a low
chance of some drizzle or light rain. Areas of stratus will
persist across at least portions of the forecast area through
Friday, which will complicate the temperature forecast for Friday.
Warm temperatures above the surface will spread into the area with
the elevated mixed layer and give a rather strong inversion with
the moist layer underneath. The potential depth of this moist
layer may make it a challenge for the stratus to dissipate quickly
on Friday (especially east), but as soon as the stratus
dissipates in an area, the temperature will quickly rise mixing
underneath this inversion. Have leaned more pessimistic toward
cloud erosion Friday in the east, so forecast temperatures are a
bit lower than previous forecast, but will be watching the
forecast trends. With the warm temperatures west where stratus
will erode sooner, fire weather concerns will be elevated in the
west on Friday. Minimum RH values are expected to be at or below
20 percent in the far west Friday afternoon.

The next cold front moves through Friday night bringing forecast
temperatures closer to average. Medium range models diverge as
early as Tuesday so confidence is not as high in the later
periods. ECMWF would suggest a southern stream wave approaching
Texas/Oklahoma Tuesday while GFS and Canadian show west-northwest
flow aloft. Will include some low POPs south on Tuesday with the
ECMWF solution.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  41  60  56  77 /   0  10  10   0
Hobart OK         40  65  53  81 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  49  63  56  82 /   0  10   0   0
Gage OK           35  66  50  83 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     36  63  53  76 /   0   0  10  10
Durant OK         52  63  59  75 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

03/09/09



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