Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 290420

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1120 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

The 06Z aviation discussion follows....


The large area of SHRA/TSRA across western Oklahoma continues to
shrink very slowly. This trend is expected to continue overnight,
and little will remain by sunrise. Since there is very little
change in the overall flow and moisture pattern, we expect rather
similar convection to develop again Monday afternoon. However, the
axis of the larger mass of convection will probably be shifted
slightly farther west. That means a somewhat lower chance for
prolonged rain/storms at KGAG/KWWR and south toward KCSM and KHBR.
Elsewhere, isolated TSRA will once again pop up by mid-afternoon
and persist into the mid-evening. Expect winds to be light
easterly outside the effects of thunderstorms.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 924 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016/

Models, radar trends, satellite trends, persistence, and the
overall meteorological situation all point to higher rain chances
remaining in northwest Oklahoma overnight. As with the past
several nights, overall coverage and intensity should continue to
diminish slowly through the night.

The forecast has been updated several times this evening to
account for details of the rain pattern and its effects on
temperatures, etc. At this point, it appears to be in good shape,
but later updates may be needed if conditions change
significantly faster or slower than expected.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 622 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016/

The 00Z aviation discussion follows....

Much like yesterday, persistent SHRA/TSRA continue across
northwest Oklahoma, affecting the TAF sites of KGAG and KWWR. This
convective activity is expected to continue off and on through the
period. Elsewhere, more isolated SHRA/TSRA will be more diurnal in
nature, mostly dissipating by 02Z, and reforming around 19Z to 20Z
tomorrow. Light southeast winds will gradually turn to east
overnight into tomorrow.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 235 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016/

This afternoon is very similar to yesterday, although instability
is a bit lower, along with shower/storm coverage. Expect most of
this activity to again come to an end after sunset, but a repeat
of last night across the northwest appears possible within deeper
moisture fetch. A MCV lifting NE out of AMA may also have an
impact on persistence through tonight.

At least widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain
in the forecast for most of the week with plenty of moisture in
place and the upper low to our west only slowly moving eastward.
The lowest chances will remain across the eastern zones as the mid
to upper ridge axis tries to nudge in. However, by Wed thru
Thursday the aforementioned low will elongate and slide east
southeastward along with a weak cold front. Cloud cover and rain
chances will increase with these features so expect very
reasonable temps for the 1st of September (around 3-5 degrees
below avg).

By next weekend, the low level flow will quickly return from the
south as a long wave trough impacts the western CONUS and the
center of the mid to upper ridge axis moves very near eastern/ne
OK. Temps will likely climb back to or above avg as a result, and
rain chances will decrease for most of the region. A mid level moisture
axis should, however, in place over the western zones so kept SCHC
PoPs across this area on the western fringe of the ridge within SW
flow aloft.


Oklahoma City OK  70  90  70  90 /  10  40  30  40
Hobart OK         69  88  68  89 /  30  50  30  40
Wichita Falls TX  70  92  70  91 /  10  30  20  30
Gage OK           65  85  66  86 /  50  40  40  50
Ponca City OK     69  90  69  89 /  20  40  20  40
Durant OK         71  94  72  93 /  20  20  10  30


.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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