Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
FXUS64 KOUN 271149
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
649 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
The October 27, 2016 12 UTC TAF discussion follows...
LIFR to VLIFR flight conditions are expected to continue through
mid-morning at KOKC/KOUN/KHBR. KCSM/KLAW/KSPS are expected to be
on the periphery of the lowest visibilities; however at least
MVFR to IFR conditions are expected at these terminals. Flight
conditions are expected to significantly improve by mid to late
morning with all sites becoming VFR by 17Z.
Light and variable winds this morning will become predominantly
east to southeast by this afternoon. Winds are expected to remain
light (<12 knots) through the TAF period.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 329 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016/
Patchy dense fog has developed in vicinity of a remnant surface
boundary this morning. Many surface stations are at or near
saturation. High-resolution models indicate the fog should
continue to expand south and west the next few hours and will
dissipate later this morning between 15-16Z.
Otherwise, unseasonably warm weather will continue for the next
several days with high temperatures running at least 10F above
average. The warmest and windiest days over the next week appear
to be Saturday and Monday with temperatures around 15F above
average. Both days will feature an amplified low-level thermal
ridge with gusty south to southwest winds. Opted to increase both
temperatures/wind speeds above blended guidance on both days.
Consequently, elevated fire weather conditions will be present on
Monday could be near or at record highs for some locations; both
the GFS and ECMWF prog a southeast to northwest 850 mb temperature
gradient with values from 18-25C (19.1C is the OUN sounding
climatology record for 00Z Nov 1).
By mid-week, global deterministic and ensemble models indicate a
pattern change with a transition to southwest flow aloft.
Consequently, rain chances will begin to increase as early as
Tuesday night into Wednesday due to increasing warm air
advection/isentropic ascent. A shortwave trough embedded within
the southwest flow may approach by late Wednesday into Thursday
with an appreciable chance of showers/storms and cooler
temperatures (perhaps closer to climatology). However, no
significant cold air intrusions are seen in the foreseeable
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 80 61 83 61 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 81 60 86 60 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 82 63 86 61 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 83 58 88 60 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 78 59 85 63 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 83 61 85 61 / 0 0 0 0
OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for OKZ007-008-
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for TXZ085-086-