Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 210354 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1055 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.AVIATION...
21/06Z TAFS...WEAK COLD FRONT OVER SRN KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH OVERNIGHT. GENLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST AREAS
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH NRN OK. WILL LIMIT VCTS TO NRN OK SITES AS CONFIDENCE
IN ACTIVITY CONTINUING FARTHER SOUTH REMAINS LOW. WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SRN OK/N TX
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

.UPDATE...
PRECIP FOR SW PARTS OF THE FA ARE PROBABLY MOSTLY DONE FOR THE
NIGHT. HOWEVER... ANOTHER SHOWER OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
SO HAVE KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN FAR SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL KANSAS COULD MOVE INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE CWA TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH. HAVE SPREAD LOW POPS A
LITTLE MORE SOUTH FOR TONIGHT AS IT SEEMS THAT THE CURRENT
ACTIVITY IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN MODELS ARE PREDICTING. SOME LIGHT
PATCHY FOR IS ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
PUT A MENTION IN WX GRIDS FOR MAINLY SOUTHEAST/SOUTH CENTRAL OK
AND PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS. FOG DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN OTHER AREAS BUT COULD
GET INTERRUPTED BY VEERING WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT... CLOUDS... OR
RAIN. UPDATES OUT SOON.

MAXWELL
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH KS EARLY THIS EVE WILL MOVE INTO NRN
OK LATER TONIGHT. COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES INTO NRN OK AND WILL INCLUDE IN THOSE TAFS. WILL LIMIT TSRA TO
NRN SITES DUE TO MORE UNCERTAINTY OF STORMS MAKING IT FARTHER SOUTH
BEFORE DIMINISHING. BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS MOIST AND WINDS FAIRLY
LIGHT  AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO MORE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE
CENTRAL/SOUTH TOWARD SUNRISE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WELL WE CONT TO WATCH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM PRODUCE
PRECIP TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST THIS AFTN. ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND
HOWEVER WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO SEE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT CLOSER TO REMNANT LOW AND ACROSS THE NORTH AS SFC COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA.

THIS FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY WITH A MINIMAL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY AFTN NEAR THE RED
RIVER. OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTH IN THE FRONTS WAKE
ALLOWING FOR SOME COOLER NIGHT AND LESS MUGGY DAYS. AT LEAST FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THEN STALL OVER
THE PLAINS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. SOME DIFFERENCES IN ITS EVOLUTION...
BUT SHOULD PROVIDE AT LEAST SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIP ACROSS
MAINLY PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  88  59  81 /  20  20  10  10
HOBART OK         68  89  61  82 /  10  20  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  91  64  85 /  10  30  20  10
GAGE OK           64  84  57  81 /  20  20  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     66  84  55  79 /  30  20  10   0
DURANT OK         70  91  64  82 /  10  30  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/02


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