Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KOUN 191036
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
436 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE AND INTO WESTERN OK...AND ACROSS N TX
INTO SOUTHEASTERN OK. HAVE ADJUST POPS SLIGHTLY DOWN ACROSS THE
SOUTH AS MOST OF THIS PRECIP WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER...AND INCREASED THEM OVER WESTERN OK/TX BORDER BEFORE 18Z.
AFTER THIS TIME...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVER CENTRAL
OK AND MID LEVEL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE WILL FOLLOW ENDING MOST PRECIP
CHCS ACROSS THE REGION.

STILL EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
ACROSS WESTERN OK AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN N TX. STRATUS WILL ALSO
LINGER ALONG AND EAST OF I35 THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. FOG WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING ALONG AND WEST OF I35 AS WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. THE NEXT MID TO UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY...BUT RAIN IS NOT
ANTICIPATED RIGHT NOW WITH ONLY WEAK ASSOCIATED LIFT AND DRY MID
TO UPPER LEVELS PRESENT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS EXTREME N/NE
OK EARLY MONDAY AM.

THERE IS FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE FIRST COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE MON THROUGH EARLY TUES AM AS A STOUT
VORT MAX DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
PRESENT ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS MONDAY EVE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT ONLY
FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SCHCS RIGHT NOW. MUCH DRIER BL
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AND THE STRATUS WILL FINALLY END.
CHRISTMAS DAY APPEARS VERY WARM AND DRY RIGHT NOW FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW OK AND WESTERN N TX...AS DEEP
WESTERLY/SW FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES NEAR AHEAD
OF A MID TO UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WILL
KEEP SCHC RAIN/SNOW POPS IN FOR CHRISTMAS NIGHT/EARLY FRI AM
ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH AS THE VORT MAX APPROACHES THAT AREA AND
A MODIFIED ARTIC AIRMASS DIVES SOUTH. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
EXTREMELY LOW RIGHT NOW REGARDING THIS SCENARIO WITH DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH AND TIMING
OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  44  36  50  39 /  20   0   0  10
HOBART OK         44  35  50  39 /  20   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  46  39  52  40 /  20   0   0   0
GAGE OK           44  30  51  37 /  20   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     42  34  49  38 /  10   0   0  10
DURANT OK         47  40  51  38 /  40  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/03



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.