Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 221909
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
209 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Oklahoma and the southern plains are now under the influence of
the large upper trough over the western U.S. this influence will
continue through at least Friday. The first minor wave, well
ahead of this storm, is expected to cross the southern Texas
panhandle early Monday. In addition to the slow eastward movement
of thunderstorms over the texas panhandle tonight, this feature
is the reason for relatively higher pops across southwest Oklahoma
and adjacent parts of Texas early Monday. the dry line will be a
player Monday afternoon over the central Texas panhandle and again
Tuesday probably closer to the western Oklahoma border. Severe
weather in moderate shear and high buoyancy is expected to
initiate near the dry line both days. Mesoscale boundaries that
result from this will provide smaller-scale focus in the near
term. By Thursday the upper trough approaches Oklahoma and shear
increases. It still appears that Thursday is the most likely day
for widespread severe weather in the southern plains. This system
is finally expected to lift northeast of Oklahoma on Friday;
however, latest model runs indicate part of the trough could
linger into Saturday, but with weaker flow aloft.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  65  79  66  82 /  30  40  30  20
Hobart OK         66  82  67  88 /  40  20  40  40
Wichita Falls TX  67  83  67  87 /  50  40  40  20
Gage OK           65  86  65  91 /  40  30  30  20
Ponca City OK     65  79  67  83 /  20  30  30  30
Durant OK         66  81  68  83 /  20  40  30  30

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

14/09



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