Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 171732

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1132 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

The 18Z aviation discussion follows....


A few mid/high-level clouds will circulate around an upper-level
low today, mainly over the eastern half of Oklahoma. Low-level
southerly winds will bring increasing moisture, which is expected
to bring low clouds, drizzle, and fog to much of Oklahoma and
north Texas overnight into Saturday morning. The confidence in
specific timing and details of heights/visiblities is fairly low,
but there is high confidence that MVFR to IFR conditions will
occur sometime between 18/0800Z and 18/1600Z near/east of KSPS-
KLTS-KCSM-KEND. Conditions should begin to improve around 1600Z,
and VFR conditions should return in the afternoon to at least the
western parts of Oklahoma, and the KSPS area.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1043 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017/

Updated cloud cover forecast through 00Z. Added mention of
sprinkles across southeast Oklahoma.

Ascent ahead of a closed mid/upper-level low has result in
abundant mid-level cloud cover across southeast Oklahoma this
morning. There have even been some mid-level echoes detected by

Based on progged isentropic charts, would expect cloud cover to
continue expand northward today. Therefore, increased cloud cover
from near I-35 eastward through this afternoon. The latest
convective-allowing models also suggest that sprinkles or perhaps
a few showers are possible across far southeast Oklahoma this
afternoon. Otherwise, no significant changes were made to the


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 525 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017/

VFR conditions today will give way to the development of MFVR and
perhaps IFR conditions late tonight as moisture pools northward into
the area. Have introduced both low clouds and fog at all sites
except GAG/WWR after 9Z.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017/

Main concerns will continue to be with regards to storm system early
next week and its impacts.

For today, most locations will be a few degrees warmer the yesterday
as south/southwesterly low level flow cont. Otherwise, will watch
approaching closed low, currently over southwest Texas. This low
will initially not have a lot of moisture to work with, but could
produce some mid/high clouds across the area today. As we go through
tonight into early Saturday, sufficient low level moisture will
return that we could see some patchy drizzle or even a few showers
across portions of central into southern/southeastern Oklahoma. This
is already well represented in the grids and will maintain.

This low will shift east of the area by late Saturday with a much
stronger storm system approaching the southern Plains by Sunday.
Expect to see some activity as early as Sunday morning across
southwest part of Oklahoma and western north Texas. Showers and
thunderstorms expected to become widespread by late Sunday into
Monday, providing another much needed rain event. As far as severe
weather, instability will be rather limited with this system and
severe storms appear unlikely.

This storm then looks to develop a closed low just to our east and
southeast, but should be far enough removed to keep any lingering
precip just to our east. Another warm, dry period into the middle of
the week before another storm system moves into the plains by late
in the week with perhaps another chance of rain and thunderstorms.


Oklahoma City OK  70  49  67  50 /   0   0  10   0
Hobart OK         69  46  68  47 /   0   0  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  72  50  72  51 /   0   0  10   0
Gage OK           71  40  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     71  47  68  50 /   0   0  10   0
Durant OK         70  53  68  53 /  10  10  20   0




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