Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 182246
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
545 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
SHOULD CONT TO SEE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT
WITH A GRADUAL LOWERING OF THE CEILINGS. COULD SEE CEILINGS
APPROACHING MVFR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE LIFTS
NORTH OUT OF TX. WILL KEEP CEILINGS IN THE 3 TO 4 KFT RANGE FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20KTS ACROSS NORTHWEST
BY LATE MORNING. WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF FORECAST
FOR NOW AS CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES TIME TO TIME
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TONIGHT... INCREASED POPS TO FIFTEEN PERCENT ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
DUE TO RAINFALL AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. IN ADDITION... 850MB
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS SUGGEST LOW CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... LEADING TO LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THAT REGION BEING INCREASED BY A FEW DEGREES. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER OVER NORTH EASTERN COUNTIES DUE TO MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN NEW MEXICO.

SUNDAY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SPRINKLES OR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
LINGERED CLOSE TO THE UPPER LOW NEAR I-35 AND POINTS EAST. DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE FROM THE LACK OF MOISTURE. HIGHS AND
SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER COMPARED TO TODAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
FORM OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA FROM INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD
OF A MID/UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THUS...KEPT LOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN CHANCES IN THESE AREAS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...KEPT A DRY FORECAST
DURING THIS TIME FRAME DUE TO WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...THOUGH SOME
MODELS HINT AT SOME POSSIBLE LIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF
THE AREA. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY ARE FORECAST.
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA NEAR A WEAK FRONT...AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS
INCREASE INTO THE 50S TO PERHAPS LOWER 60S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS
A MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION.
FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ROUGHLY IN THE 75TH TO 95TH
PERCENTILE...SO HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK SHEAR.

/MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  49  76  55  81 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         49  77  55  82 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  53  78  56  83 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK           44  78  50  81 /  20  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     45  75  53  80 /  10  10  30  20
DURANT OK         51  74  53  80 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17


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