Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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621
FXUS64 KOUN 181644 AAB
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1144 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.AVIATION...
18/18Z TAFs. VFR conditions will prevail through forecast cycle.
Gusty south winds will weaken and back this evening, then return
to more south-southwest after 12Z and increase again. Cirrus will
increase through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 631 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAFs.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail with only some high clouds moving in.
Winds will become gusty from the south today in many areas, then
relax this evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 352 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The main story will continue to be the storm chances this
weekend. A lead shortwave forecast to move into the southern
Plains Thursday night may get the party started a little earlier,
so have added POPs Thursday night southwest ahead of this
shortwave. Some storms will remain possible with this wave on
Friday, especially in the southwest. Additional storms may develop
Friday afternoon in northwestern/western Oklahoma with another
shortwave pivoting into the southern and central high plains. But
the models are not as consistent with the timing and placement of
this wave, so there is more uncertainty here. If a more consistent
signal for storms develops, will have to watch for the
possibility of some isolated severe storms northwest late Friday
afternoon and evening with NAM forecasting 2000 J/kg of CAPE and
25-30 knots of 1 km shear in western Oklahoma.

Storms will become more widespread Saturday as a longwave trough
moves from the western U.S. toward the Great Plains and a cold
front moves through the area. This front will move into an
atmosphere where strong moisture advection has occurred. By
Saturday, surface dewpoints will be at or above the 95th
percentile for late October (per local climatology) and
precipitable water values will be above the 90th percentile for
this time of year (per SPC/UNR/WRH climatologies). Storms will
continue to spread south and east with the progression of the
front and likely exit the area Sunday morning. Agree with
highlighted area of SPC Day 4 outlook for some severe potential.
There will also be the potential of locally heavy rainfall with
the climatologically high moisture content.

Temperatures will be seasonably warm ahead of the front and near
or below average behind the front.  .26.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  79  52  77  59 /   0   0   0  10
Hobart OK         80  53  77  61 /   0   0   0  20
Wichita Falls TX  81  52  80  62 /   0   0   0  20
Gage OK           84  51  79  59 /   0   0   0  10
Ponca City OK     80  50  78  58 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         78  51  80  58 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

11/23



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