Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 222339 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
539 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS IN THE 00Z TAFS... FINALLY. AN EXCEPTION MAY
BE OVER FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY
MORNING AS SOME MVFR VSBY/CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE... MOST LIKELY AT
KSPS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR
TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW WEAK ECHOES ARE SHOWING UP ON AREA RADARS. MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY EVENING...ALTHOUGH A
FEW SMALL PATCHES OF DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

AN AREA OF MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ACCOMPANY A MID-LEVEL
WAVE ACROSS OUR TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT OF
RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN...EXCEPT POSSIBLY ALONG THE NORTHERN
FRINGE...WHERE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW MAY OCCUR EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER GLOB OF MOISTURE
IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. MINIMAL
LIFT IS EXPECTED IN THIS PART OF THE STORM SYSTEM...SO ONLY VERY
LIGHT ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWEST. A MIX OF LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW MAY EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW...ENHANCED BY COLD
AIR ADVECTION. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TOMORROW...DEPENDING
ON THE WIND GUIDANCE TRENDS.

CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE WINDY...WARM...AND DRY. IF CURRENT MODEL
GUIDANCE IS ANYWHERE CLOSE TO CORRECT...A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE
NECESSARY...AND A HIGH WIND WATCH/WARNING MAY NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED. MOST MODELS SHOW 30-50 KT WINDS BETWEEN 850 MB AND THE
LOWEST LAYER ABOVE THE SURFACE.

A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE DROP IN
TEMPERATURES. THE WEEKEND IS CURRENTLY BEYOND THE RANGE OF
COHERENT MODEL FORECASTS. THEY DIVERGE QUITE SERIOUSLY AROUND
SATURDAY...SO THE WEEKEND FORECAST IS CURRENTLY A MIX OF GUIDANCE
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  37  48  33  43 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         36  48  31  46 /  10  10  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  40  51  34  48 /  20  20  10   0
GAGE OK           32  42  28  45 /  10  20  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     34  46  33  41 /  10  10  20  10
DURANT OK         42  51  36  45 /  20  50  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/01


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