Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 112341
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
541 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

.AVIATION...
TAFS 1200/1224...
A northwest to north wind will prevail over the next
18-24 hours with VFR conditions.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 331 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Fire weather continues to be the primary forecast focus.

Winds remain elevated across northwestern Oklahoma, with sustained
winds between 15 and 20 gusting to 25 mph. No need to rehash the
additional fire weather conditions, the Red Flag Warning will
continue through remainder of the afternoon hours for northern
Oklahoma.

Behind the frontal passage, Tuesday morning lows will dip just below
freezing across portions of western to northern Oklahoma. With a
broad, weak, surface high spread from the Edwards Plateau to the
southern plains will result in weaker winds, so fire weather
concerns will remain elevated, but not Near Critical, like today.
However, ERC-G values remain near the 90th percentile across a large
portion of the area, so obviously fuels are cured for ignition and
burning is highly discouraged. Several burn bans are in effect for
counties in Oklahoma, check with your city or county for information.

For the remainder of the week, precipitation chances remain nil, as
dry and mild conditions are expected to persist through the weekend.
A weak surface trough will move through the area on Wednesday with
an increase in temperatures ahead of it`s arrival through the
afternoon. This will bring another day of near critical fire weather
conditions across western north Texas into far southwestern
Oklahoma. Similar to Tuesday, behind the front, Thursday will be
cooler. Friday, a surface ridge will linger, with mostly calm winds
and slightly warmer afternoon highs.

A stronger front, still dry, is expected to move in from the
northwest Saturday. Southwest winds will gradually increase, ahead
of it, late Friday and overnight, with warmer temperatures, highs in
the 70s in western north Texas and southwestern Oklahoma, for highs.
Long range guidance is in decent agreement with this approaching
short wave and surface trough. The increase in winds, temperatures,
and persistent drought conditions, near critical to critical fire
weather conditions will develop across western north Texas and far
southwestern Oklahoma Saturday Afternoon.

Long range solutions begin to deviate from late Saturday into
Sunday, with the strength of the 500mb trough traversing the central
United States the issue. Either way, high pressure and dry
conditions will follow Sunday into early next week. Temperature
trends will stay similar, with highs bouncing from the 50s to the
60s Sunday into next Monday.

Kurtz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  33  53  34  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         30  57  31  67 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  33  57  34  70 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           26  59  29  66 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     28  52  32  63 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         35  55  36  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for OKZ004>020.

TX...None.
&&

$$



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