Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 280225 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
925 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. ONLY CHANGES WERE TO MAKES SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER. SOME SPRINKLES STILL SEEM POSSIBLE
LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE... DRY AND COOL
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
28/00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH ANOTHER INCREASE IN MAINLY
10-15KFT CLOUDS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TERMINALS 00Z-18Z. WINDS
MAINLY LIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST WIND DOMINATING BEFORE SHIFTING TO
SOUTHEAST LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD AS WARM FRONT DEVELOPS NEAR RED
RIVER.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND... AND THE RETURN OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.

MILD... MARCH LIKE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. REMAINING UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT... WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH
SLOW TO EXIT THE NORTHEAST... ANOTHER WEAK H500 SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE
DOWN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER TROUGH.
THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN A WEAK COLD FRONT... NOT AS STRONG AS
LAST NIGHTS... CROSSING THE SRN PLAINS. IN RESPONSE... WE COULD SEE
SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OK.
HOWEVER... LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT AS PLENTIFUL AS THIS
MORNING... SO COVERAGE MAY BE LESS THAN TODAY... BUT A FEW MAY SEE
SOME DROPS ON WINDSHIELDS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE ACROSS
LOCATIONS ALONG I-35 AND NORTH AND EAST OF THE OKC METRO. TEMPS WILL
BE COOL AGAIN OVERNIGHT... WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE N/NE TO
THE MID 40S ACROSS WRN OK TO WRN N TX.

TEMPS WILL REBOUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SHORT RIDGE DEVELOPS
OVER THE SW U.S AND S/SWRLY FLOW RETURNS. TEMPS ACROSS WRN N TX AND
SWRN OK MAY BE A 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN SOME LOCATIONS BOTH
SAT AND SUN. MOISTURE RETURN WILL ALSO INCREASE AS THE RIDGE
DIMINISHES INTO MONDAY AND AN H500 SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS NM
AND NRN MEXICO INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN BY TUESDAY. THE GFS REMAINS
THE MORE BULLISH SOLUTION IN COMPARO TO THE ECMWF... BUT BOTH
DEVELOP SOME -TSRA ALONG THE ERN RED RIVER VALLEY SUN NIGHT INTO MON
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE ARKLATEX. THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
WAVE APPROACHES... WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WARM
FRONT AS IT LIFTS OUT OF NRN TX INTO OK. CONSISTENCY BETWEEN
SOLUTIONS IS OKAY... NOT GREAT... BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS THE SAME.
EXACT LOCATION OF PRECIP REMAINS THE CHALLENGE... WITH THE GFS
DEVELOPING MORE QPF... WHICH CONTINUES TO BE ITS TREND AS OF LATE.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG SRN OK/NRN TX AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH.
INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH FOR THUNDER... BUT SHEAR LOOKS
MARGINAL... 25 TO 35KTS... SO SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THE
MOMENT.

LATER IN THE WEEK... LATE WED INTO THU... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN
FROM THE NORTH... WITH ANOTHER CHANCE AT THUNDERSTORMS. AT THE
MOMENT... MOISTURE RECOVERY MAY BE SLOW DUE TO THE EXIT OF THE FIRST
SYSTEM... BUT ENOUGH MAY EXIST FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT. GUIDANCE IS IN
OKAY AGREEMENT... BUT IT IS A BIT TOO FAR OUT FOR ANY SPECIFICS.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  44  74  50  77 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         41  80  48  80 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  45  84  52  84 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           40  81  47  75 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     39  71  50  75 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         44  74  52  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/11



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