Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 020523 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1123 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED PRECIP/WX AND TEMPS... ONCE AGAIN...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HAD TO FIX TEMPS ACROSS NWRN OK... CLOUDS BUILDING IN ACROSS NWRN
OK HAVE ALLOWED FOR MORE INSOLATION THIS EVENING... KEEPING TEMPS
IN THE LOWER 30S/UPPER 20S THROUGH 11PM. ADJUSTED FOR THIS TREND
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS... AND MUCH LIKE THE PREVIOUS UPDATE...
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT.

WATCHING RADAR TRENDS... THE HRRR HAS COME IN MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
PRECIP ACROSS NRN TX... NOT SURE HOW MUCH STOCK TO PUT IN THIS AT
THE MOMENT SINCE ITS TRACK RECORD WITH WEAK FORCING IS NOT ALL
THAT GREAT. HOWEVER... GETTING BETTER ECHOS ON KFWS IN NORTH TX...
WITH DRIZZLE REPORTED AT A FEW SITES NORTH OF THE METROPLEX.
DECIDED TO BUMP UP POPS A SKOSH ACROSS TEXOMA... MAY HAVE BEEN A
LITTLE TOO BULISH EARLIER THIS EVENING. KEPT PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE
DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
OVERALL...WILL NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
TAFS.

GENERALLY BELIEVE VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR VFR CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY WORSEN TO MVFR AT ALL LOCATIONS BY 01Z...
AND PERHAPS IFR SOUTH OF KCSM-KSWO AFTER 01Z.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

UPDATE...
ADJUSTED PRECIP/WX AND TEMPS...

DISCUSSION...
JUST A QUICK UPDATE TONIGHT... PULLED BACK CHANCES FOR RA/DZ EARLY
THIS EVENING AND FZRA/FZDZ OVERNIGHT ACROSS SRN OK/TEXOMA AND WRN
N TX. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE FROM THE RAP/HRRR HAVE TRIMMED BACK
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP... HOLDING THEM S/SE OF THE RED RIVER.
FROM EARLY RADAR TRENDS... THIS SOLUTION SEEMS PROBABLE. AS FOR
PRECIP TYPE... HAD TO REIN IN TEMPS THIS EVENING AS EARLIER
FORECAST WAS DROPPING THEM TOO FAST. WHERE PRECIP CHANCES
EXIST... TEMPS WILL HOVER AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. THEREFORE...
CONTINUED WITH LIGHT RA/DZ CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. KEPT
FOG CHANCES GOING OVERNIGHT... BUT DROPPED TO PATCHY AS N/NE WINDS
ACROSS NRN OK DON`T ALWAYS BODE WELL FOR WIDESPREAD FOG
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER... WITH THAT SAID... WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE ON THE GROUND... PATCHES OF LIGHT FOG ARE
LIKELY OVERNIGHT.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WITH THIS ISSUANCE...WE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY NEW WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES. HOWEVER...A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED
TO HIGHLIGHT AREAS THAT COULD SEE VERY LIGHT FREEZING PRECIP. NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION ONE MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA WHERE FREEZING DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP. THERE ARE ALREADY TRAVEL ISSUES ACROSS THE
REGION...AND THIS WILL BE COMPOUNDED LATE TONIGHT AS SLUSHY/WET
UNTREATED ROADWAYS AND WALKWAYS REFREEZE. ADDITIONAL IMPACTS FROM
ANY LIGHT PRECIP IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE SHORT IN DURATION AND
NOT EXPECTED TO ADD MUCH TO REFREEZING ISSUE. ALL SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE NOT VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH ANY DENSE FOG/FREEZING FOG
ISSUES BUT WE WILL GO AHEAD AND MENTION FOG IN THE FORECAST.

TURN OVER TO NON-FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP LATE TOMORROW MORNING FOR
A WHILE...AT LEAST UNTIL NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES LATE
TUESDAY. TRENDS OF MODELS STILL SHOW POSSIBILITY OF MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BEFORE ENDING AS
SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS EXPECTED. PRIOR TO THIS
TRANSITION THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW STORMS MAINLY OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. NO SEVERE WEATHER CURRENTLY
EXPECTED.

THEREAFTER...MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  33  26  39  37 /  30  10  10  30
HOBART OK         34  25  36  35 /  20  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  36  29  39  37 /  30  20  10  40
GAGE OK           33  22  38  37 /  30  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     32  22  40  37 /  20  10  10  30
DURANT OK         37  32  42  40 /  40  30  30  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/99


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