Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 171749
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1249 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.AVIATION...
ALL TERMINALS WILL REMAIN UNDER VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOW CONFIDENCE THAT ISOLATED -TSRA CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE COULD AFFECT TERMINAL KSPS, SO WILL MONITOR AND AMEND
THAT TERMINAL IF NECESSARY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...LIGHT FOG PERHAPS LOW CLOUDS MAY IMPACT
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH 14Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE
AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN IMPACT
FROM ODILE WILL BE MIDDAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

MEANWHILE...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF TWO AREAS. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO FORM THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS AND MISSOURI WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTED
AS FAR SOUTH AS GRANT/KAY COUNTIES. BETTER WAA AND FLOW SHOULD
KEEP MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA TODAY.
WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FOR
SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL BE CLOSER TO BETTER MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO WILL KEEP LOW
POPS ACROSS THIS AREA.

RAISED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA ON
FRIDAY AS GFS/EC ARE SIMILAR IN TRACKING REMNANTS NEAR TEXAS/OK
PANHANDLES BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS DIVERGE ON HOW
QUICKLY THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE EC IS SLOWER WHILE THE GFS IN MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CHANCES
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.

ANOTHER SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BECOME CUTOFF FROM THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES THIS WEEKEND...MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
STORMS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  89  69  89  69 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         90  69  89  68 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  90  71  90  69 /  20  20  30  10
GAGE OK           91  65  90  66 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     89  67  89  69 /  10  20  20  10
DURANT OK         89  70  88  69 /  20  20  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/03/67


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