Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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287
FXUS64 KOUN 192035
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
235 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Cloud cover across central and southwest OK continues to erode
this afternoon. As destabilization continues, and height falls
associated with the mid to upper trough commence, this afternoon
isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop. There is good agreement between both CAM and
deterministic solutions of initiation occuring near western N TX
and SW OK before 00Z. Coverage should increase rapidly during the
evening hours as the mid level trough and jet approach. Before
then, if storms can remain sfc based as the LLJ increases, there
will be a low tornado threat. Hail will also be possible,
although marginal mid level lapse rates will likely limit the
potential. Late tonight, the storms should begin to merge and
become quasi linear near the I35 corridor presenting a marginal
severe wind gust threat. Flash flooding will also be possible
through the overnight hours with record PWATs around 1.5 in
expected across central OK. Most of the activity will exit our
eastern zones before 18Z Mon, although some precip will linger
across SE OK.

A warming trend is still anticipated through the week under the
influence of a mid to upper shortwave ridge. By Thursday, strong
downslope winds accompanying a mid to upper shortwave trough could
support high temps in the low to upper 80s across much of the
area. A cold front will then follow for Fri dropping temps back to
near normal values by the weekend. The next chance of precip may
arrive near the end of the weekend into early next week as another
mid to upper trough, with moisture this time, arrives.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  57  74  43  73 /  80  10   0   0
Hobart OK         52  73  38  74 /  40  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  56  74  44  75 /  50  10   0   0
Gage OK           47  70  34  78 /  10  10   0   0
Ponca City OK     58  73  42  74 /  70  10   0   0
Durant OK         60  69  49  75 /  80  50  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

04/03



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