Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
FXUS64 KOUN 222301
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
601 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017
Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.
VFR will apply through the forecast period. Expect wind speeds to
decrease near and after sunset this evening. Directions will
remain mainly from the north. Skies will clear before the next
TAFs are issued.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 243 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017/
Main concerns continue to be with potential for some patchy frost
across northern/western Oklahoma tonight and severe thunderstorms
and heavy rain by the end of the week.
Skies are expected to clear quickly this evening and north winds
will diminish. This will allow already cool temperatures to fall
quickly into the 40s, on their way into the 30s across parts of
western/northern Oklahoma. Some patchy frost is possible in these
areas overnight, especially in protected, low lying areas. Do not
anticipate an advisory at this time.
With abundant sunshine, temperatures will respond back into the
upper 60s and lower 70s Sunday. Warming trend continues Monday as
breezy south winds develop ahead of a shortwave trough that will
move through the central and northern Plains.
A broader trough will develop through the central Rockies into
the Plains Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. As this occurs a surface
area of low pressure will deepen in the high plains with dryline
into western Oklahoma and western north Texas. Precip chances
remain minimal Tuesday, however during the day on Tuesday
temperatures will climb into the 90s across parts of southwest
Oklahoma and western north Texas, while farther north, where a
cold front will enter northern Oklahoma temperatures may not climb
out of the 70s. In addition, cloud cover will increase as precip
chances return by late Tuesday night and Wednesday. As instability
will remain somewhat limited, do not anticipate any severe
weather, but a few storms will be possible, mainly across northern
into eastern Oklahoma.
A more active period looks to be setting up by late in the week.
However still quite a bit of uncertainty remains as models
continue to differ on timing of waves, location of surface
features as well as other details that will come more into focus
as we get closer. It does appear some severe weather is likely to
occur as well as the potential for additional heavy rainfall.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 40 70 45 75 / 10 0 0 0
Hobart OK 38 70 46 79 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 42 72 45 81 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 34 70 49 84 / 10 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 37 70 45 77 / 10 0 0 0
Durant OK 43 71 45 78 / 0 0 0 0