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000
FXUS64 KOUN 171738
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1238 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAK WAVE ALOFT...COMBINED WITH LOTS OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE...WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SOME -RA TO THE SW 1/2 OR SO OF
OK AND ADJACENT PARTS OF N TX THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE CLOUDS
WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY LOWER INTO LOW MVFR OR
HIGH IFR LEVELS DURING THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM KSPS TO KLTS.
WINDS WILL TURN GENERALLY TO NE DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE THEY
ARE NOT ALREADY NE...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT TO SE OVERNIGHT OR
TOMORROW MORNING. SPEEDS GENERALLY WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...
RAIN HAS BEEN PAINFULLY SLOW TO MOVE/BUILD SWD THIS MORNING...BUT
IS GRADUALLY WORKING INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. THIS TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH LIGHT RAIN MOVING INTO
MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY MID AFTERNOON.
WHILE THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY. A FEW
LOCATIONS FROM NORTHWESTERN THROUGH WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MAY SEE
BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER INCH...BUT THIS IS NO DROUGHT
BUSTER. WITH THIS TREND IN MIND...HAVE MODIFIED AFTERNOON POPS TO
DECREASE RAIN CHCS ALONG/EAST OF I-35...AND SHOW A SLOWER
TRANSLATION. ALSO OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND MAKE UPDATES TO HRLY
TEMPS...DEWPOINTS AND WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TROUGH THE DAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST. RAIN CHCS
WILL INCREASE FIRST NEAR WWR AND GAG THIS MORNING...AND THEN OVER
MOST OF THE OTHER TERMINALS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. TSRA IS NOT
EXPECTED...AND VISBYS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 4 MILES. HOWEVER...MVFR
CIGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH THE RAIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...WEAK SFC COLD FRONT IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTH AND IS LOCATED FROM NEAR STILLWATER WSW TO NEAR
CHEYENNE. 800-700 MB DEFORMATION ZONE IS APPARENT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KS RIGHT NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH AS UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS WILL BE ONE AREA OF LIFT/FOCUS FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. THE OTHER WILL ACCOMPANY THE VORT MAX AND MID LEVEL
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS W/SW OK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THE SFC FRONT DRAGS SOUTHWARD. THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL LIKELY TAKE
PLACE FROM AROUND 18-21Z NEAR SW OK. COULD SEE CLOSE TO 0.5 INCH
SOMEWHERE OUT WEST...BUT AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL BELOW
THIS FOR THE REST OF THE FA TODAY. DRIZZLE MAY CONTINUE NEAR
WESTERN N TX DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SUBTLE ISENTROPIC
ASCENT CONTINUES THERE. RAIN CHCS WILL COME TO AN END FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING REPLACES THE PASSING
TROUGH. HIGHS WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 70S FRI AFTERNOON...WHICH
IS AVG.

SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY NICE DAY AS WELL WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVG...BUT SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AS A LEE LOW
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW TRAVERSING THE
SOUTHWEST. MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATE AN INITIAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE AND INTO NORTH
CENTRAL OK AROUND 00Z SUN. DO NOT EXPECT POPS WITH THIS FEATURE
CONSIDERING MOISTURE PROFILES AND CAPPED ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER...THE SECOND WAVE ON ITS HEELS WILL RESULT IN POPS
STARTING OUT WEST AND SPREADING EAST DURING EASTER SUNDAY MORNING.
FINALLY...THE MAIN WAVE WILL PASS OVER CENTRAL OK DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY FROM WEST TO EAST. WILL
KEEP HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS GOING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. STILL
EXPECT SOME STRONG TO PERHAPS A FEW SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP...BUT
THESE SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ANTICIPATED. HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT.
THUNDER/RAIN CHANCES SHIFT EASTWARD WITH THE TROUGH MONDAY...BUT
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING MOIST CONVECTION ACROSS THE SE WHERE
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE.

THE PATTERN THEN SHIFTS TO RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS NEXT WEEK AHEAD
OF A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE NPAC. TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TUES-THURS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY RETURN
AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FEATURE AS IT NEARS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES WED. HAVE INTRODUCED ISOLATED THUNDER FOR WED
AFT/EVE OUT WEST NEAR A POSSIBLE DRYLINE...BUT WILL KEEP THURS DRY
FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  47  73  53 /  40  30  10  10
HOBART OK         57  46  73  52 /  60  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  64  52  76  55 /  50  30  10  10
GAGE OK           51  39  73  54 /  60  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     56  41  73  51 /  30  10  10  10
DURANT OK         65  52  74  53 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/23/23