Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 171121 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
621 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.AVIATION...
17/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25KT RANGE THIS MORNING AS MIXING
COMMENCES AND THEN SUBSIDE 23-00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. COLD FRONT IS
LOCATED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AT THIS TYPING
AND SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH THE DAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE 10-15 DEG F COOLER THAN THOSE
SEEN ON THURSDAY. INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND EASTERLY
WINDS SATURDAY WILL KEEP TEMPS EVEN COOLER...BELOW AVERAGE AT MOST
SPOTS UNTIL SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN SUNDAY AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT.
THIS SECOND FRONT WILL PASS OVER REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INITIAL AIRMASS. NORTHEAST AND EASTERLY FLOW
MID-LATE WEEK SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS NEAR AVERAGE.

AS FAR AS POPS GO...WE WILL LEAVE MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN OUT OF
FORECAST LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE ARE SIGNALS FROM GFS AND
WRF THAT WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND PERHAPS ISOLATED STORMS
NEAR FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH POPS REMOVED IN PREVIOUS
PACKAGE WILL NOT REINTRODUCE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. WILL HOWEVER
KEEP POPS IN FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY EVEN THOUGH MEDIUM RANGE DPROG/DT LEAVES MUCH TO BE
DESIRED WITH RESPECT TO SPLIT FLOW EVOLUTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  78  51  70  48 /   0   0   0  10
HOBART OK         78  49  72  48 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  82  53  75  51 /   0   0   0  10
GAGE OK           74  44  69  46 /   0   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     74  46  67  46 /   0   0   0  10
DURANT OK         83  54  73  51 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/99/11


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