Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 291735
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1235 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS NEAR KPNC THROUGH
22Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.

MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BR MAY OCCUR IN A FEW LOCATIONS MAINLY EAST
OF KAVK-KLAW 07-14Z. KPNC HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE
WHERE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WITH BR MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER...DID NOT
MENTION AS CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE REMAINS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING. OTHERWISE...HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO THIN WHILE SOME LOW CLOUDS MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
29/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
MVFR FOG WILL BE SEEN MAINLY AROUND KPNC EARLY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINALS.
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. AS
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS OVER THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM NEAR ELK CITY TO PONCA CITY AT
THIS TYPING. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY THEN MIX BACK NORTH OF REGION SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS
SHOULD BE NEAR AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

BEGINNING THIS EVENING...FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP FREE WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. ECM HAS COME
MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...KEEPING UPPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. IF THERE IS SOME RETROGRADING WE COULD SEE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OR A FEW STORMS EAST OF I-35 MID TO LATE
WEEK. WITH CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE...WE WILL STAY WITH THE
BLENDED INITIALIZATIONS AND KEEP FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  67  91  68  95 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         66  95  68  98 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  98  72  99 /  10  10   0   0
GAGE OK           62  93  65  97 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     65  89  68  92 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  96 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17/17


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