Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
FXUS64 KOUN 181143
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
643 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017
Aviation discussion for the 12 UTC TAFs is below.
VFR conditions are expected for the most part. Went more
optimistic at all TAF sites.
Brief MVFR conditions are possible over parts of western Oklahoma
before 18 UTC, but confidence of occurrence remains too low to
mention. KSPS may experience brief IFR or MVFR conditions before
18 UTC. Kept a TEMPO for IFR conditions and BR 12-15 UTC, though
confidence is not the greatest.
Additional patches of IFR or MVFR conditions may form after 06 UTC
Sunday. Did not mention due to low confidence of occurrence.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 423 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017/
The main concern is dealing with wildfire potential on Sunday and
Today, another warm day can be expected under partly to mostly
sunny skies. More clouds are expected during the morning hours
mainly over southern and western Oklahoma and western north
Texas. Some patchy fog could occur early this morning across
southern Oklahoma and western north Texas, but did not mention due
to low confidence of occurrence. Went towards the warm side of
guidance highs thinking temperatures will be similar to yesterday
in most locations, ranging from the mid 70s in northern Oklahoma
to the mid 80s in western north Texas.
Sunday will be windy and warmer. Surface wind gusts may be 40 to
45 mph in parts of western and northern Oklahoma Sunday afternoon
and a Wind Advisory may be necessary. Similar to today, went with
the warm side of guidance highs thinking that abundant sun will
occur. Some places in far western Oklahoma should reach the 90s.
On Monday, another warm to hot day can be expected. A weak dry
cold front will move into the area and likely stall during the
afternoon hours just northwest of I-44. Increased highs several
degrees south of the front as downsloping southwesterly surface
winds should boost temperatures well into the 80s, if not 90s,
which will not be far at all from daily records for this time
Monday night through Wednesday night, cooler conditions are
expected as the cold front surges south, though temperatures
should still be slightly above average for this time of year. Kept
low chances for storms during this time frame, mainly east of
I-35, but capping may not allow for any storm development. If
storms form, a few could be strong with hail as the main concern.
Thursday through Friday, a strong storm system is forecast to
move across the Southern Plains. Exact impacts and timing of this
system remain uncertain. Strong and gusty surface winds and above
average temperatures seem to be likely with this system. Most
latest models depicted a slightly slower solution, bringing the
main impacts late Thursday into Friday. Strong to severe
thunderstorms as well as increased wildfire potential may be
possible during this time frame.
Critical wildfire conditions appear likely on Sunday across
parts of western Oklahoma and far western north Texas due to very
warm, dry, and windy conditions. Went ahead and issued a Fire
Weather Watch as confidence is growing that critical fire weather
conditions will occur. Forecast surface dewpoints and resulting
surface humidity remain somewhat uncertain. Regardless, dry
vegetation, ERC values around the 70th percentile, strong winds,
and unusually warm air will support the ignition and rapid spread
of wildfires Sunday afternoon and early evening.
Elevated to near critical fire conditions may occur again on
Monday due to very warm, dry, and breezy conditions. Surface winds
will be lighter than Sunday. However, surface humidity values may
be lower, and surface temperatures may be warmer than Sunday south
of a weak dry cold front across central and southern Oklahoma and
Critical wildfire conditions may return next Thursday and Friday
due to dry, very warm, and windy conditions, especially in
western Oklahoma and western north Texas.
Daily record highs on Sunday and Monday be in jeopardy. Here are
Sunday March 19...97F set in 1907
Monday March 20...92F set in 1907
Sunday March 19...94F set in 1976
Monday March 20...92F set in 1978
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 79 60 86 62 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 81 60 89 60 / 10 10 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 84 61 89 61 / 10 10 0 0
Gage OK 75 57 93 52 / 0 10 0 0
Ponca City OK 73 57 88 60 / 0 10 0 0
Durant OK 81 61 84 61 / 10 10 0 0
OK...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening