Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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927
FXUS64 KOUN 241708 AAA
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1208 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.AVIATION...24/18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
Besides some brief breaks in clouds this morning, most sites will
remain BKN to OVC MVFR through much, if not all, of the period.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon across
portions of western and northern Oklahoma. Fairly confident in
impacts to KGAG/KWWR/KPNC late this afternoon and evening to
ceilings and vis from thunderstorms. Storms will move eastward
through the evening, with enough confidence for TEMPOS at
KOKC/KOUN.

Kurtz

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 628 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The 12Z aviation discussion follows....

AVIATION...
A large cluster of thunderstorms over central/northern Kansas will
advance southeast today, possibly affecting KPNC during the
afternoon or early evening. Another area of scattered
strong/severe storms will develop late in the afternoon near the
western border of Oklahoma. These storms may affect all TAF sites
in the western half of Oklahoma between 2300Z and about 0500Z.
Timing of these storms is very uncertain, as are the specific
expected locations. Ceilings will be highly variable this morning,
and probably again overnight tonight, varying between 1000 feet
and unlimited. Significant visibility restrictions are unlikely
outside thunderstorms.

CmS

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 355 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
An MCV over Caddo County early this morning will continue to move
east, and associated convection just to its south is expected to
weaken as the morning progresses. Although showers/thunderstorms
could form at almost any time today, it appears that the greatest
chances will be associated once again with dryline convection this
afternoon along the western border of Oklahoma. Additional storms
may form in north-central Oklahoma if outflow from the Kansas MCS
can make it that far south this afternoon or evening.

Chances for showers/thunderstorms will continue throughout the
forecast period, with only a few brief breaks. It is difficult to
accurately time shortwave troughs in the mid/upper flow, so the
confidence in the timing of the rain/storm chances is not
particularly high.

One of the stronger waves appears to pass over Oklahoma on
Thursday, although some models suggest that a second, equally
strong wave, will arrive on Friday. Depending on what actually
happens, it appears that Thursday and Friday could be days of
rather widespread storminess.

That should be followed by a relatively quiet Friday evening and
Saturday, before storm chances resume, and continue through early
next week.

We have elected to retain the Flood Watch unaltered because of the
risk of locally heavy rainfall with any storms that form over the
next day or so. The watch may be able to be canceled early if
storms fail to produce excessive rainfall this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  68  87  71  84 /  50  20  10  50
Hobart OK         69  91  69  87 /  40  10  10  50
Wichita Falls TX  72  90  72  86 /  20  20  10  60
Gage OK           63  94  62  89 /  40  10  10  30
Ponca City OK     69  89  71  86 /  60  20  10  40
Durant OK         70  84  71  81 /  30  10  20  50

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for OKZ021>023-027-033>039-
     044-045.

TX...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

09/04



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