693
FXUS64 KOUN 071823
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
123 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 122 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

- Severe storms possible Tuesday afternoon/evening.

- Low to moderate rain/thunderstorm chances continue through at
  least mid-week.

- Hot and humid conditions later this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 122 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Another day, more scattered showers and storms in the south and
southeast. Again, these should mainly be diurnally driven, but may
linger into the early evening and even some signal for
redevelopment overnight. And has been the case, there is some
potential for convection developing this afternoon over the High
Plains to make a run for northwest Oklahoma. The signal in the
models is not as strong as in some recent nights but still enough
to keep some storm chances in the forecast.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 122 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

All of the operational synoptic model runs and most of the CAMs
(the HRRR being an exception) point to the signal of storms
developing Tuesday afternoon and moving south during the late
afternoon and evening, perhaps in the form of a storm complex. But
the NBM POPs for Tuesday evening are at the low extreme of the
guidance envelope and seem to be very much underdoing the storm
potential for Tuesday evening/night. Have nudged POPs toward
CONSMOS. If the signal continues to be consistent with the
development of a storm complex, the POPs for Tuesday afternoon and
evening would likely need to be increased in later forecast runs.
Instability of 2000-3000 J/kg is expected tomorrow giving the
potential of strong to severe thunderstorms, especially for
strong winds, and SPC has upgraded much of the area to a slight
risk for a large part of the area for this severe potential. The
storms will generally move south ahead of a shortwave in the
northwest flow aloft and storm chances will decrease after
midnight. Some rain chances will linger again on Wednesday in the
southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Northwest flow continues into late week with MCS chances resuming
Thursday night. Temperatures are expected to be in the 90s Thursday
and Friday, including some heat indices near 105 in southeast parts
of the forecast area.

Current models show a cold front approaching Friday night (though
the strength of this system is subject to some synoptic
uncertainty). This will bring a brief cooldown and (you guessed it)
more rain chances.

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Generally, outside of any thunderstorms, unrestricted ceilings
are visibilities are expected.

MVFR stratus at KSPS is expected to become VFR within the next
hour. Elsewhere, scattered cumulus clouds generally around 3,000
to 5,000 ft are expected this afternoon. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected across southeast Oklahoma (KDUA), which
may result in brief reduction in visibility and gusty winds.
PROB30 was included at KDUA to account for this.

Additional thunderstorms are possible tonight into the day
tomorrow, but the chance is too low to include in the TAFs. There
is a higher chance of showers/storms just beyond the current TAF
period.

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  72  91  71  93 /  10  20  40  10
Hobart OK         71  94  70  97 /  20  10  30   0
Wichita Falls TX  73  94  72  96 /  10  20  20  10
Gage OK           68  93  68  96 /  30  20  10   0
Ponca City OK     70  91  70  92 /  10  30  30  10
Durant OK         74  92  73  93 /  30  50  30  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...10