Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 012259
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
600 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING THIS AFTN AND EVENING AND CONT THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY IMMPACT A FEW SITES THIS
EVENING... AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR AT SPS. OTHERWISE
CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW BEYOND THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS TO MENTION.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

.DISCUSSION...
A DISORGANIZED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAYBE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...TO MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
MONDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...THEN ANOTHER WAVE ALOFT WILL ARRIVE
ON TUESDAY. THIS WAVE IS CURRENTLY ON THE SASKATCHEWAN/ALBERTA
BORDER...AND WILL MOVE ALMOST STRAIGHT SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ITS INFLUENCE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS AS
IT PASSES OVER OKLAHOMA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH
RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE...WE DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.

GENERALLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK TO
SOUTHERLY. AN OMEGA BLOCK WILL BE IN PLACE FROM MID- TO LATE-
WEEK...WHICH WILL SLOW THE ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH MEAGER MOISTURE RETURN...AND
RELATIVELY LITTLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED...THE RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE RATHER SUBDUED NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS IN FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS
THAT CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE TO FROST OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT COME TOGETHER...SO NO FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  46  64  44  71 /  30   0   0  10
HOBART OK         45  66  42  71 /  20   0   0  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  48  67  45  72 /  30  10   0  20
GAGE OK           40  65  40  71 /  30   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     43  63  41  71 /  30  10   0  10
DURANT OK         51  67  47  72 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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