Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 092323
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
523 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Aviation discussion for the 00 UTC TAFs is below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to continue.

Light surface winds under 10 kt will vary between northwest
and southwest before 14 UTC, then increase after 14 UTC and
become northwesterly.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 307 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Primary forecast focus is on the increased Fire Weather Concerns
Tomorrow into early this coming week.

With stout troughing in place over the eastern half of the United
States, our generally dry, northwest flow regime will hold steady
into week ahead. No precipitation is in the forecast for the next
seven days.

Fire weather conditions will be our focus. Tonight, a weak surface
trough will move in from the northwest, swinging southeast through
day break, with increasing northwesterly winds through the late
morning into the afternoon; speeds will not be more than 10 to 15
mph, which is not excessive, by any stretch, for the plains.
However, the big driver of fire weather conditions is fuels.
Locations across most of western into central Oklahoma and into
western north Texas have not seen rainfall, greater than a tenth of
an inch (0.10in), for over 50 to 60 days. ERC-G values, around 50 to
60, reflect this and are indicative of very dry and cured fuels.
Combined with the warm afternoon highs, in the 60s, and breezy
winds, Elevated to Near Critical conditions are forecast for much of
western Oklahoma into western north Texas tomorrow and again on
Monday. On Monday, another weak front will push southward through
the day, with increased north winds across northern and western
Oklahoma.

Behind the front, Monday, temperatures will be a bit cooler on
Tuesday, but remaining mild, in the 50s for highs. Overall, fairly
stable temperatures with highs in the 60s and 50s depending on weak
frontal passages bringing brief cool downs through the end of the
week.

It goes without saying, fire weather concerns will persist, near
daily, given the persistent dry conditions.

Kurtz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  30  63  33  64 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         29  66  33  66 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  31  68  32  72 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           27  64  27  64 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     27  60  31  61 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         32  66  34  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

10/10/17



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