Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 201040
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
540 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.AVIATION...
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND BECOME GUSTY BY LATE
MORNING. GUSTS ABOVE 20KTS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN OK. COULD SEE
A VERY BRIEF TIME OF IFR CEILINGS DEVELOP RIGHT AROUND BEGINNING OF
FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND MAY MENTION AT GAG/WWR
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
FORECAST PERIOD.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
WELL ITS BACK TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TODAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
BRINGING MUCH WARMER TEMPS AND ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR RAIN.

WILL KEEP LOW POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT AS STORMS ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS MAY MAKE A RUN TOWARD THE AREA. OTHERWISE WILL
HAVE TO WAIT ON S/W TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TUES NIGHT INTO WED. AS
THIS OCCURS A SFC FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. ECMWF
CONT TO TRY AND BREAK OFF A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE TROUGH AND
SWING IT BACK SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AROUND THE RIDGE THROUGH OK.
THIS MAY ALLOW THE FRONT TO MAKE SOME ADDITIONAL SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS INTO THE BODY OF THE STATE... RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP AND PERHAPS A DAY OF SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS.

VERY WARM TEMPS CONT AT LEAST INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.
MODELS DO HOWEVER CONT TO DEPICT ANOTHER STRONG SFC FRONT MOVING
INTO THE AREA SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN
AND A COOL DOWN AND THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST.
ALTHOUGH PROBABLY NOT AS SIGNIFICANT A COOL DOWN AS THE ONE WE
JUST EXPERIENCED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  91  71  96  73 /  10  10  10   0
HOBART OK         94  72  98  73 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  94  74  98  75 /  10  10  10   0
GAGE OK           97  71  99  71 /  10  10   0  20
PONCA CITY OK     90  72  96  74 /  10  10   0  10
DURANT OK         91  70  97  74 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/30


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