Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 221707
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1205 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

.AVIATION...
MVFR ceilings are expected to dissipate late this afternoon as upper
low continues to pull east and with loss of daytime heating. Gusty
north winds will also diminish around 00Z with light north winds
overnight into Sunday morning.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017/

.DISCUSSION...
Aviation discussion for the 12 UTC TAFs is below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Overall, improving conditions are expected at all sites. Have high
confidence all sites will be VFR after 23 UTC.

Ceilings will generally be MVFR at most sites before 18 UTC, then
generally VFR afterward.

Gusty north surface winds will form at all sites by 15 UTC, then
diminish 22-01 UTC.

Added VCSH at KPNC before 14 UTC due to moderate confidence of
occurrence. Additional isolated SHRA may form and impact a few
sites north of KLTS-KOUN 18-01 UTC. Did not mention due to sparse
coverage/low confidence of occurrence.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 358 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The main concerns are frost potential tonight then possible
active weather with severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall by
the end of next week.

Today, cool and breezy conditions will occur. Think cloud cover
will slowly decrease west to east during the day. Kept low
chances for light rain showers today mainly in parts of north
central Oklahoma, northeast of a Cherokee to Enid to Perry line
where slightly deeper moisture is forecast. The latest HRRR model
runs even suggested that isolated light showers may form this
afternoon nearly anywhere north of I-40 where afternoon MUCAPE
values are forecast to be 50-200 J/kg. The bottom line is that most
places should stay dry today. Used a model blend of guidance
highs today, generally around 15 degrees below average for this
time of year.

Tonight, mostly clear conditions and decreasing surface winds with a
surface ridge of high pressure building into the area should
allow for good radiational cooling and rather chilly conditions.
Added patchy frost mention in parts of western and northern
Oklahoma where lows are forecast to be 33-36F. Was not confident
enough to issue a Frost Advisory for these locations at this time,
but will closely monitor. Preferred the cooler side of guidance
lows tonight.

Sunday will be sunny and warmer than today with light surface
winds. Highs should remain about 5 degrees below average.

Sunday night through Tuesday, dry weather with a warming trend and
increasing surface winds can be expected. Low level moisture will
increase as well. There may be a considerable surface temperature
gradient across the area on Tuesday due to a nearby front. South
of the front and west of a dryline in western north Texas on
Tuesday, highs may soar into the 90s. East of the dryline and
south of the front on Tuesday, surface dewpoints may climb into
the 60s.

Tuesday night into early Wednesday, kept low chances for showers
and storms, mainly across northern Oklahoma, though confidence is
rather low as capping may be too strong. If storms were to
develop, a few could be strong to severe with large hail as the
main hazard.

Late Wednesday through Friday, more active weather with severe
thunderstorms, heavy rain, and localized flooding seems likely
sometime and somewhere across Oklahoma and western north Texas
during this time frame, though the exact timing and details
remain uncertain. The latest 00 UTC ECMWF/GEM models suggested
that Thursday may be the main impactful day, while the 00 UTC GFS
model suggested Friday would be most impactful. For now, kept rain
chances both days.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  57  40  69  45 /  10  10   0   0
Hobart OK         61  38  70  44 /  10   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  62  42  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           59  34  70  49 /  10  10   0   0
Ponca City OK     57  37  70  45 /  20  10   0   0
Durant OK         60  43  71  46 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

10/17/17



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