Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 212329

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
629 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

The 00Z aviation discussion follows....


As a departing upper-level wave sets off more thunderstorms across
south-central and southeast Oklahoma this evening, our TAF sites
will remain west of this action. However, a few showers will still
be possible, particularly northeast of KAVK-KEND-KOKC-KSNL this
evening, and again tomorrow afternoon. These showers may briefly
cause visibilities to drop below 3 miles at times. Otherwise,
expect brisk and gusty north winds across the region as a cooler
airmass advances into Oklahoma and north Texas. The low clouds
that currently cover most of Oklahoma and parts of north Texas
will begin to break up this evening, but most of these breaks will
be quite temporary. There will be a general trend toward more
breaks and gradually increasing ceiling heights as the morning
progresses on Saturday, and this trend will continue into the
afternoon. By late afternoon, most of the region should have
ceilings in the VFR range, or no ceiling at all. Winds will begin
to diminish toward the end of this forecast period (23/0000Z).


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 238 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017/

Scattered showers and some storms will continue to develop and
move across portions of the fa the rest of this afternoon and
evening. A few strong to severe storms still remain possible along
with some locally heavy rain with any storms. The rain has ended
for far western portions of the fa and that trend is expected to
slowly continue from west to east through this evening. With
several inches of rain in some areas earlier today and ongoing
flooding issues, any additional heavy rain could cause/exacerbate
flooding conditions in those areas. Also monitoring to see the
response of rivers and creeks as the water runs off so will leave
the Flood Watch as is for now but could cancel part of the watch
over the next hour or so if trends continue in some areas.

Saturday will probably feel chilly for some with gusty north winds
and highs expected to only climb into the 50s and 60s. A cold
night is expected Saturday night with lows in the mid to upper 30s
possible across the NW third or so of the fa. Frost may also be
possible in this area due to these low temperatures combined with
fairly light winds and clear skies.

Southerly winds will return to the area Sunday. Temperatures will
also warm up again early next week. Models show a weak shortwave
moving across the Central U.S. Tuesday which will bring a low
chance for showers and thunderstorms to northern parts of the area
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Models then diverge late next week
as to timing, path, and strength of an upper trough that would
affect the area. The ECMWF shows the bulk of the showers/storms
would affect the area Thursday while the GFS would show the most
widespread/strongest activity not occuring until Friday.


Oklahoma City OK  45  58  40  69 /  20  10   0   0
Hobart OK         43  61  38  70 /  10   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  46  64  42  72 /  20  10   0   0
Gage OK           39  60  37  70 /  10   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     44  57  37  70 /  50  10   0   0
Durant OK         51  60  44  71 /  80  10   0   0


OK...Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for OKZ018>020-024>026-



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