Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 170259 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
859 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
INCREASED SKY COVER TONIGHT. ADDED SPRINKLE MENTION IN SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS 4 TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY. INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES NEAR THE RED RIVER EAST OF WICHITA FALLS WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA.

BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA...INCREASED CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...THINK TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER
STEADY FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.

ADDED SPRINKLE MENTION TO THE LOCATIONS MENTIONED IN THE
UPDATE LINE AS LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND HRRR SUGGESTED THIS
DEVELOPMENT. ATMOSPHERIC SOUNDINGS AND GROUND TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING SUPPORT ALL LIQUID IN THESE LOCATIONS.

PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A ENID TO
GUTHRIE TO CHANDLER WILL BE NEAR OF JUST BELOW FREEZING...
29 TO 33 DEGREES...THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF PRECIPITATION
WERE TO GET THIS FAR NORTH...A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF MAINLY LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND/OR LIGHT SLEET COULD OCCUR. CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SCENARIO REMAINS LOW...ESPECIALLY MOST MODEL RUNS INCLUDING THE
00Z NAM DEPICTING THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WELL SOUTH OF THESE
LOCATIONS. THUS...DID NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME. EVEN IF THIS
WINTRY MIX OCCURRED...TRAVEL IMPACTS WOULD BE VERY UNLIKELY DUE TO
WARMER ROAD SURFACE TEMPERATURES FROM RECENT WARM TEMPERATURES.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN WED MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WED AFTN WITH
MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS BEING KOKC/KOUN/KLAW/KSPS AND POINTS
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER... THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED
ENOUGH THAT WILL LEAVE A MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WILL BEGIN POURING INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT. WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AND AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.
SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. KEPT A MENTION OF SNOW ACROSS
NORTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
ANY FROZEN PRECIP IS LOW. RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE MORE LIKELY.

THE MAIN TROUGH APPROACHES FRIDAY...BRINGING RAIN CHANCES TO
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRIER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...KEEPING THE MOISTURE FARTHER SOUTH. BROUGHT
POPS DOWN ACCORDINGLY.

BY THE WEEKEND...ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA. MODELS ARE
STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT...SHOWING ANOTHER TROUGH
COMING THROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THOUGH...AS OF YET...THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE DRY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLY COOL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP IN THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

MAD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  32  42  37  48 /  10  50  50  30
HOBART OK         34  42  36  48 /  10  50  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  37  44  40  55 /  10  60  30  10
GAGE OK           31  43  33  43 /  10  30  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     28  40  33  42 /  10  40  60  30
DURANT OK         33  44  39  52 /   0  70  70  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/25


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