Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 270515
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1115 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

SURFACE WINDS WILL HAVE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AT ALL SITES BY
18Z.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

UPDATE...
OVERALL THE FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART LOOKS GOOD. DID INCREASE
CLOUD COVER IN SW PARTS OF FA WHERE SOME HIGH CLOUDS HAVE/ARE
MOVING IN. TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS A LITTLE TOUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS AND MOST OF THE AREA UNDER CLEAR SKIES HAS LED TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING DROPPING TEMPS IN SOME LOCATIONS FASTER THAN
OTHERS THIS EVENING. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS FOR THIS OTHERWISE
THINGS LOOK ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
AT ALL SITES 12-17Z.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VERY WARM TEMPS ARE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
WESTERLY SFC FLOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING ALL THE WAY
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOMORROW
OVER THE PLAINS...AND THE WARM TREND WILL CONTINUE AS A RESULT.
HIGHS MAY CLIMB CLOSE TO 80 ACROSS W OK TUES AFTERNOON...AND THEN
WESTERN N TX WED AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS
PREFRONTAL DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. LOW RH AND WIND SPEEDS AROUND
15 MPH WED...COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE AVG TEMPS...WILL RESULT IN AN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN ALTHOUGH RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME THANKS TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

TEMPS WILL FINALLY COOL DOWN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. BY LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...MODELS REMAIN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH REGARDS TO AN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING THE
GULF OF CALI AND SW. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...INCREASING RAIN
AND SNOW CHANCES OVER THE REGION. FOR NOW...THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE ON SATURDAY WHEN WIDESPREAD DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE
PRESENT. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED AND SPREAD NORTHWARD A BIT. ITS
STILL UNCLEAR HOW MUCH SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE BASED ON SFC
TEMPS/WETBULBS THROUGH SUNDAY AM...BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATION APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I40 FOR THE MOMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  41  73  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         38  77  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  40  74  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           37  78  40  72 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     35  73  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         42  72  45  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17



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