Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 241621
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1121 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Adjusted precipitation chances through noon...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to
develop through noon across the western half of Oklahoma and
western north Texas. Dewpoints are how should I say, fun, lower
70s across the majority of the region. KOUN 24/12z sounding came
back with a pwat of 1.62in, which is over the 90 percentile for
this time of year. Forcing for ascent remains well focused along
a steep isentropic response along the leading edge of the deep
500mb trough over the Rockies and ahead of the frontal boundary.
Obviously, moisture return through the boundary layer and low
levels is more than sufficient and showers and thunderstorms will
continue to gradually increase in coverage through the afternoon
hours. MLCAPE values are stout this morning, with SPC mesoanalysis
indicating values near 1000 to 2000 J/kg in some locations.
However, deep layer shear is less than impressive ahead of the
front, only 15 to 25 kts presently. This combo and weak low level
lapse rates, the risk for severe storms remains marginal, isolated
strong wind gusts would be the greatest concern through the
afternoon.

Locally heavy rainfall remains our greatest concern at this time.
However, morning discussion on the operations floor, consensus
remains that a flood watch will not likely be necessary. Rainfall
rates will likely be steady, with the heaviest rainfall occuring
this evening and overnight into Sunday. The majority of the
region, can handle the 1 to 3 inches of rainfall expected over
this time period fairly well. However, there`s always a caveat
isn`t there, locally heavy rain due to training precipitation
could result in minor flooding and potentially flash flooding in
some locations.

Kurtz

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 606 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016/

AVIATION...
Widely scattered showers and a few storms have formed this
morning in the Panhandles. A few showers may brush northwestern
Oklahoma this morning. Elsewhere, some low clouds with MVFR
ceilings will be possible. A few showers may also form.

By early afternoon, scattered thunderstorms should develop and
become more numerous through the afternoon. Storm chances will
be somewhat higher in western Oklahoma with increasing chances in
central Oklahoma during the late afternoon and evening.

Additional storms will form later tonight in northern Oklahoma
as a cold front moves across the area.

The stronger storms this afternoon and evening may lower
visibility to IFR and ceilings to MVFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 315 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Part of a strong western trough/low will move across the northern
Rockies and Plains today. Strong enough flow over the Intermountain
region will result in a cutoff low near northern Mexico by late
weekend. Meanwhile, the trough moving across the northern Plains
will continue east into the Great Lakes region. This will help
push a cold front across Oklahoma and north Texas. As this occurs,
widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms will develop.

Before the front enters northern Oklahoma tonight, scattered showers
and thunderstorms should develop, especially across the western
1/3rd or 1/2 of Oklahoma (afternoon/early evening). Although
current PW values are not as high compared with the last month or
so, some of the storms will produce locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds.

Rain and storm chances will gradually end, starting in northern
Oklahoma Sunday afternoon. By Sunday evening/early Monday better
rain and storm chances should be limited to the southern third of
Oklahoma and northern Texas.

By Tuesday, most areas will be dry with near to slightly below
average temperatures.  Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase
slightly Thursday into Friday as a trough skirts the area.
Western and northern Oklahoma will have the best chance for rain
with this feature.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  85  69  75  57 /  60  90  80  30
Hobart OK         84  68  73  57 /  70  80  70  30
Wichita Falls TX  87  70  78  59 /  60  80  90  60
Gage OK           83  62  74  51 /  60  60  30  10
Ponca City OK     85  68  74  54 /  60  90  80  20
Durant OK         90  72  85  63 /  30  50  60  40

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

04/30



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