Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 201633
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1133 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

.UPDATE...
Updated hourly temperature and dew point forecast through 00Z
today to fit current observation tends.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Temperatures are running 4-7F degrees warmer than
24 hours ago across northwest Oklahoma. Yesterday, there was
quite a bit of cirrus from decaying thunderstorms to the north
that reduced solar insolation. In addition, 850 mb temperatures
are progged to be around 2C warmer than yesterday and the airmass
is drier (dew points are 1-4F lower than yesterday). Therefore,
anticipate these locations to reach at least 100F today.
Elsewhere, expect temperatures be a slightly warmer than yesterday
as well.

Otherwise, there is still the potential for a few isolated
showers/storms across southeast Oklahoma this afternoon as we
approach convective temperature and MLCIN erodes.

Mahale

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 519 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016/

AVIATION...
2012/2112 TAFS...
VFR conditions and a south wind will prevail through 12z
Thursday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 321 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A mid and upper level ridge, centered over Oklahoma, will
be the main weather feature over the next several days. Daytime
high temperatures will increase a degree or two through
Friday/Saturday as evapotranspiration has less of an influence on
temperature. Surface winds will likely maintain a southwest
component longer Thursday and Friday...which will aid in higher
temperatures.

Heat index values yesterday reach around 105 across parts of
south central and southeast Oklahoma. Similar values are expected
by this afternoon, so the advisory will be expanded farther south
into southern Oklahoma. The advisory will be in effect for today.

A shortwave trough will move across the western part of the
Northern Tier Friday into Saturday. An associated frontal system
will push a cold front into Kansas by late in the weekend. Widely
scattered showers and storms may develop along the front
therefore, slight/chance pops seem reasonable for the northern and
central part of the forecast area for Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  96  75  99  77 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         97  77 100  77 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  98  77 100  77 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           98  74 101  75 /   0   0  10   0
Ponca City OK     99  75 101  76 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         97  75  99  76 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ007-008-012-013-
     019-020-026-030>032-042-043-047-048-051-052.

TX...None.
&&

$$

10/26


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