Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 181647
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1147 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

...Update...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
We just sent an update to continue the trend that the overnight
shift started and lowered the precipitation probabilities further
across portions of northwestern into central Oklahoma. Overnight
convection resulted in a fairly significant meso high centered
just north of Cheyenne on our 12z surface hand analysis has been
deleterious to thermodynamic environment across northwest
Oklahoma. Significant convective overturning had occurred and a
drier boundary layer is in place (i.e., some mid-upper 50 degree
dew points earlier this morning that has slowly recovered). The
scenario that we talked about yesterday for this afternoon looks
unlikely to materialize. Less convergence along the western extend
of southeastward moving weak cold front and mid-level height
rises/QG vector divergence is also working against our chances.

Further south, convection is ongoing associated with a band of
mid-level moisture across north Texas. This should become
increasingly surface based and expand northeastward into our
south-central and southeast counties later today. We`ll also need
to watch trends in the observations for 1.) potential isolated
development further north near remnant convective boundaries,
generally east of I-35, and 2.) development across north-central
and northeast Oklahoma with a weak cold front that could approach
late this evening or overnight.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 543 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to slowly dissipate across
NW OK early this morning. Most of the lightning has moved away
from WWR/GAG so will only include VCTS with predominate -RA.
Currently think the showers/storms west of CSM will begin to turn
more easterly and northeasterly missing the terminal to the north
so did not include any TSRA there for now. It`s unclear how many
storms, if any, will develop this afternoon but late tonight
confidence was high enough for a PROB30 at PNC. Some temporary
MVFR cigs are still expected to impact OUN/OKC early this morning
for a brief amount of time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  90  73  95  73 /  30  10  10  10
Hobart OK         93  73  97  74 /  20  10  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  93  74  97  75 /  20  10  10  10
Gage OK           92  70  95  72 /  60  10  20  20
Ponca City OK     92  72  94  73 /  30  30  10  20
Durant OK         90  75  95  75 /  30  30  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

25/12


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