Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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929
FXUS64 KOUN 190501
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1101 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Aviation discussion for the 06 UTC TAFs is below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Have low confidence in the TAFs.

KOKC, KOUN, and KPNC will likely experience IFR conditions before
08 UTC, then improving conditions to MVFR, though the exact
timing of improvement remains uncertain.

Confidence of MVFR/IFR conditions across western Oklahoma and
western north Texas is decreasing. Still, plan to keep MVFR
mention near KSPS and KLAW 13-17 UTC.

Conditions are forecast to be VFR at most sites after 19 UTC with
locations in western and northwestern Oklahoma as well as western
north Texas having the highest chances for VFR conditions.

IFR or lower conditions may return to KOKC, KOUN, and KPNC after
00 UTC Tuesday.

Chances for -SHRA remain low. Kept VCSH mention at KOKC, KOUN, and
KPNC around 12 UTC where confidence is moderate. TS may be
possible, but will not mention due to lower confidence
of occurrence.

Non-convective low level wind shear is possible now through
15 UTC and will be added at several sites.

A cold front will bring a wind shift to the north as well as
lighter surface winds to parts of northern Oklahoma after 12 UTC.
Not sure how far southward this front will get, but KWWR, KPNC,
and KGAG will likely be impacted by the wind shift.

MBS

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

17



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