Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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657
FXUS64 KOUN 140343
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
943 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Have made minor adjustments to temperature, rainfall/ice
accumulation, and related elements to account for the latest
observations and short-range guidance. No changes have been made
to the Warning/Advisory configuration.

The HRRR seems to be doing quite well with rainfall forecasts. As
such, it appears that the greatest rainfall in central Oklahoma
will occur around/after sunrise tomorrow, with only light amounts
overnight. Heaviest rainfall overnight and early Saturday should
occur along the wet- bulb freezing line, which will move very
little overnight, roughly from Wichita Falls to Ada to
Holdenville.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 559 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
Freezing rain and rain will persist through Saturday over most of
Oklahoma and northern Texas. IFR conditions become common.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 332 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Freezing rain and ice accumulations continue to be the questions
this forecast.

Small area of freezing rain in north central OK this afternoon
will continue to lift NE out of the area. Radars show another area
of precipitation moving into the area from Texas. This
precipitation will move into areas where temperatures are at or
near freezing leading to another round of icy weather.

Temperatures are expected to remain fairly steady tonight so areas
that are at or below freezing right now will likely remain that
way tonight. Models show another round of heavier precipitation
late tonight into Saturday morning across portions of central OK.
Where exactly this area of heavier freezing rain sets up will have
an impact on ice accumulations overnight into the morning. Right
now, the models are showing this area along or near the I-40
corridor which includes the OKC metro area. With this in mind, the
Ice Storm Warning has been extended southward and some adjustments
were made to the freezing rain advisories. Models then show
another round of heavier precipitation affecting NW/N portions of
the fa Saturday afternoon and night.

The freezing line is still expected to begin to slowly shift
northward Saturday and Saturday night so even though precipitation
chances will continue Saturday some locations will only experience
a cold rain instead of freezing rain. How soon and how quickly the
freezing line lifts could have an affect on how much ice
accumulation occurs in a location. The good news is that once
temperatures go above freezing this weekend, they will likely
remain above freezing except for maybe parts of N OK. Temperatures
are expected to warm to above freezing everywhere on Sunday.
Models show the upper low moving across the region Sunday into
Monday leading to fairly widespread rain showers and some
thunderstorms. A few strong to severe storms may also be possible
in parts of southern OK and north TX Sunday night into Monday. The
precipitation is expected to finally end on Monday. After Monday
the forecast remains dry with near or above average temperatures
next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  28  35  34  50 /  70  80  70  60
Hobart OK         27  35  34  49 /  60  80  60  80
Wichita Falls TX  30  42  40  59 /  70  70  40  80
Gage OK           25  31  29  39 /  40  90  80  80
Ponca City OK     28  33  31  46 /  50  80  80  50
Durant OK         35  47  45  62 /  50  40  30  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Ice Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Sunday for OKZ004>020.

     Freezing Rain Advisory until midnight CST tonight for OKZ032-039-
     042-044-045.

     Freezing Rain Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for OKZ031-037-
     040.

     Ice Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Saturday for OKZ021>030.

     Freezing Rain Advisory until 6 PM CST Saturday for OKZ033>036-
     038.

TX...Freezing Rain Advisory until midnight CST tonight for TXZ086>090.

     Freezing Rain Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for TXZ083>085.

&&

$$

23/09



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