Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 060933
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
333 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Latest surface observations indicate a cold front oriented
northeast to southwest across the forecast area early this
morning. This cold front is progressing southward and will move
through the entire area by mid morning. Gusty northerly winds will
occur for a few hours immediately behind the front. Ahead of the
cold front, low level moisture has been sufficient for low stratus
and fog. Some locations have briefly dropped to one quarter mile
but widespread dense fog has not occurred and is not expected.
Forecast soundings from RAP and NAM suggest enough depth to low
level moisture later this morning for some drizzle across mainly
western north Texas.

Temperatures will be cooler today. Most locations will reach the
mid to upper 40s for highs. The much colder arctic air mass is
now flowing into the northern Great Plains and will continue to
move south behind a second stronger cold front. The shortwave
trough seen in water vapor over the Pacific Northwest will help
force this second cold surge/front southward into our area as it
moves east. Models have come into agreement on when this will
occur. Midday to early afternoon in the north and overspreading
the rest of the forecast area by evening. Several locations across
the north will see high temperatures early in the day with falling
temperatures during the afternoon. All locations should be at or
below freezing by around midnight and much of northern Oklahoma
and portions of central Oklahoma are not expected to rise above
freezing on Thursday. Minimum wind chill values will approach zero
across northwest Oklahoma both Thursday morning and Friday
morning.

Modest ascent and some moisture may be enough for light snow or
snow flurries across north central and northeast Oklahoma late
Wednesday. Low probabilities of precipitation exist across the far
eastern portion of the area Wednesday evening also. Precipitation
type will be difficult. First of all, the amount of
moisture/saturation in Bufkit soundings is marginal at best for
measurable precipitation. Secondly, the depth of the moisture for
at least part of the time is not sufficient for ice introduction
and snow growth, so a period of light rain/drizzle or freezing
rain/drizzle is possible since saturation is not seen within the
dendritic growth zone. We will need to watch trends closely and
will refine the precipitation type forecast based on a more
thorough analysis of the top down method as the event nears.
Either way, amounts are light and impacts are not expected.

Medium range guidance differs on the degree and timing of warmer
southwesterly flow by Saturday. There are synoptic scale
differences with regard to amplitude of upper flow pattern and
timing of embedded shortwave troughs. GFS is more amplified with
one shortwave that will cross through Sunday night and this would
support a better chance of rain showers in the far southeast where
moisture is expected to be marginal but sufficient. Into early
next week, near normal temperatures and dry conditions are
expected since the upper flow pattern is shown in guidance to not
be very perturbed albeit quite progressive.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  46  30  43  19 /   0   0  10  10
Hobart OK         44  31  44  19 /   0   0  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  49  35  50  23 /   0   0  10  10
Gage OK           42  27  35  12 /   0   0  10   0
Ponca City OK     45  28  36  16 /   0   0  20  10
Durant OK         51  38  51  26 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

17/12



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