Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 011541
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1041 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE SLOWLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
SHOWING UP ON RADARS OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND MAY MOVE INTO
FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

GENERALLY...WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE PROGRESSING MORE OR LESS AS
FORECAST...AND NO UPDATES ARE CURRENTLY PLANNED FOR THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
01/12Z TAF DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO YIELD TO MVFR CONDITIONS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AFTER 15Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO STAY ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL END ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING WITH
REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WILL
INCLUDE PROB30 ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE OF DIRECT
IMPACTS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY IN FORECAST PERIOD WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND STAY IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM FOUR-CORNERS REGION INTO
CENTRAL PLAINS PROGD TO SHEAR OUT AND MOVE PROGRESSIVELY OVER AND
NORTH OF OKLAHOMA THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. EVEN THOUGH
MODELS ARE HANDLING THE MID-UPPER PATTERN SIMILARLY...DIFFERENCES
IN LOCATION/STRENGTH OF ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONES AND MOISTURE
YIELDS QUITE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH REGARDS TO LIGHT RAIN
POTENTIAL. BEST MOISTURE AND PROXIMITY TO H85-H70 BAROCLINIC ZONE
EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR MORE ORGANIZED RAIN ACTIVITY OVER THE RED
RIVER VALLEY AND AREAS SOUTH TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
BEFORE THEN...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO TROUGH AXIS.

WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AND CLEARING SKIES LATE TONIGHT AND CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TUESDAY MORNING...LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF OKLAHOMA. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FROST POTENTIAL
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA TUESDAY MORNING. SLOW
RETURN OF MOISTURE OVER THE COMING WEEK WHICH WILL AFFECT POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG-SEVERE STORMS NEXT WEEKEND. LARGE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE
WILL LIKELY BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING SATURDAY AND
LASTING INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK WITH SEASONABLY RICH
MOISTURE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  46  64  44 /  20  30  10   0
HOBART OK         62  44  66  42 /  30  30  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  48  67  45 /  20  30  10   0
GAGE OK           57  40  64  39 /  40  30  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     63  44  64  41 /  20  30  10   0
DURANT OK         72  52  66  47 /   0  50  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/23



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