Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 191733
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1233 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AROUND 03Z. STORM CHANCES WILL
BE GREATER AT KSPS...WHERE TEMPO GROUP HAS BEEN ADDED.
ELSEWHERE...CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A STRAY STORM...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS MUCH TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT
AND REMAIN SOUTHERLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... VFR/LOW VFR CEILINGS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH WED
MORNING. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER... BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KSPS WITH CHANCES
TOO LOW AT THE OTHER TAF SITES FOR MENTION ATTM. STRONG VARIABLE
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING DOWN AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTO PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE THROUGH PART OF THE MORNING HOURS. THE
SHOWERS/STORMS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND OK PANHANDLE SEEM TO BE
DIMINISHING AND ARE EXPECTED TO END BEFORE MOVING INTO NORTHWEST
PARTS OF THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE... THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS INTO
SOUTHERN AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AS A DISTURBANCE IN TEXAS AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE APPROACH AND MOVE INTO PARTS OF THE FA TODAY.

ISOLATED ACTIVITY CAN NOT BE RULED OUT FOR WEDNESDAY SINCE MOISTURE
WILL STILL BE IN THE AREA AND THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
STILL BE TRYING TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE REGION. HOWEVER...
CHANCES/COVERAGE ARE LOW AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW. MODELS SHOW SOUTHWEST FLOW GETTING ESTABLISHED LATER THIS WEEK
WITH MOST OF THE RAIN STAYING TO THE WEST AND NW OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER... IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME OF THE CONVECTION
MAY CLIP FAR NW PARTS OF THE FA.

MODELS SHOW A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH AND MAY MOVE INTO
PARTS OF THE FA LATE THIS WEEKEND AND/OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD
BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHWEST PARTS
OF THE FA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  97  74  98 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         73  98  73 100 /  20  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75 100  75 100 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           72  96  73  99 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     74  98  75  98 /  10  10  10  10
DURANT OK         74  96  74  97 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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