Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 260827
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
327 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Main concerns continue to be with regards to severe weather/fire
weather today and severe weather and heavy rain potential mid-
week.

As one system exits another approaches the southern Plains
from the west. This next compact system will move out across the
area late today and tonight. Wavelength between last one and this
one is not long and that is going to limit time for moisture
return to the area. Currently, 60 dewpoints are confined for near
the Texas gulf coast with dewpoints in the 40s well south into
southern Texas. Models have maintained that mid 50s to near 60
dewpoints will make it back into the area ahead of the main wave
later today. Current thinking is isolated to widely scattered
storms will develop along and east of the dryline, that will take
shape across western Oklahoma southward into western north texas,
by mid-afternoon, as insolation/convergence and forcing overcome
capping inversion in place. Some of the high-res convective models
suggest best location/timing would be near hwy 81 from I-40 south
between 4 and 5 pm.

Although wind fields will be favorable for rotating storms and
likely supercell thunderstorms, somewhat limited moisture return
will keep LCL heights rather high, limiting overall tornado
potential. Not to say that a tornado or two could not occur, but
large hail and some damaging winds gusts look to be the main
threats.

As the storm system moves across the Plains tonight, storms will
likely become more numerous, mainly across eastern Oklahoma. There
will be some lingering storm chances across north central and
southeast parts of the area through the night. However severe
chances will likely diminish through the late evening and
overnight period.

Another concern will be fire weather, to the west of the dryline
this afternoon across southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas.
Dry air will work into that part of the area to the west of the
dryline, allowing afternoon RH levels to drop well below 20
percent. Models appear to continue to underestimate surface winds
and with deeper mixing will likely see gusty southwest winds
develop into the area as well. Will issue a Red Flag Warning for
parts of southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas this afternoon
into early evening.

Monday should be dry and cooler as surface high pressure settles
south over the area.

By Tuesday another large storm system will be dropping into the
southern Rockies. As it does it will close off and then move
slowly east into the Plains Wednesday and Thursday. This will
provide the area will an extended period of much needed rain.
Models have shown a trend in developing instability farther north
with this system, so severe weather is a possibility, but still
think main impacts will be with heavy rainfall. Some locations by
Thursday could pick up 2 to 3 inches of rain.

Another dry period is then expected Friday into Saturday before
another large, closed low approaches by late in the weekend.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  77  52  70  48 /  40  30   0   0
Hobart OK         78  50  71  48 /  10  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  82  51  75  51 /  20   0   0   0
Gage OK           75  44  71  45 /  20  30   0   0
Ponca City OK     71  50  67  45 /  40  60  10   0
Durant OK         79  59  75  51 /  30  50   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for OKZ021-033-034-036-037.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for TXZ083>089.

&&

$$

23/30



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