Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 272013
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
313 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL REMAIN HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING POTENTIAL...AND SEVERE STORM CHANCES.

AN AREA OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PERSISTED NOW FOR
SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL AT TIMES. THIS HAS LEAD TO SOME FLOODING
CONCERNS OVER GARVIN AND PONTOTOC COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

FROM NOW THROUGH TONIGHT...WATER VAPOR DEPICTS A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE CLOSING IN ON THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND SW KS. THIS
HAS RECENTLY LED TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR
A DRYLINE/BOUNDARY INTERSECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TX PANHANDLE.
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA AS SURFACE
HEATING CONTINUES TO ERODE THE WEAK CAPPING INVERSION. STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL THE MAIN
CONCERN. AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD AND THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE
CONDUCIVE TO STORM ROTATION...A TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL ALSO PROMOTE A THREAT OF
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. WHILE MANY HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW
THESE STORMS DISSIPATING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AN INTENSIFYING
LOW LEVEL JET WOULD POINT TO STORM MAINTENANCE WELL AFTER
DARK...AND EXPECT AN EASTWARD MOVING COMPLEX/CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY
DEVELOP TONIGHT...GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE FLOOD
THREAT MAY INCREASE MARKEDLY IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT...AS
TRAINING STORM CORES DUMP HEAVY RAINS OVER THE SAME AREAS.

STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURS
MORNING...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING. A MORE
PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER ACROSS OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON. WITH ADEQUATE SHEAR AND HIGH INSTABILITY...EXPECT A
SEVERE THREAT ONCE AGAIN. STORMS MAY MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE
EASTWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING STORM COMPLEX...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
AGAIN...STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A SLOW
MOVING FRONT APPROACHES AND EVENTUALLY MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...AND MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE WIND SHEAR...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL PERSIST...ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING. WITH THIS...OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FROM TONIGHT ON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE SOMEWHAT SPOTTY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH A MORE
PRONOUNCED/WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ALL IN ALL...WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH
AMOUNTS MAY LOCALLY EXCEED 5 TO 6 INCHES. THIS CERTAINLY WONT HELP
THE EXISTING RIVER FLOODING CONDITIONS...AND WILL LIKELY PROMOTE
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING.

ONCE THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER...SOMETIME
SUNDAY...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN...BRINGING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES
AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. MID LEVEL RIDGING MAY ATTEMPT TO BUILD INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG RANGE MODELS
PROVIDE LITTLE CONFIDENCE ON THE LONGER TERM WEATHER PICTURE.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  81  66  80 /  40  50  60  50
HOBART OK         65  82  65  79 /  50  50  60  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  66  84  67  82 /  40  40  60  50
GAGE OK           63  82  62  80 /  50  50  50  50
PONCA CITY OK     66  80  69  80 /  50  50  50  60
DURANT OK         67  83  69  81 /  30  40  60  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

06/84



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