Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 312001
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
301 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WITH THE RIDGE OFF TO THE WEST...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS
PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FORCING IS WEAK AND SHORT
TERM MODELS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CONVECTION...MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THE DETAILS ON WHEN AND WHERE WE WILL SEE
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

MOST OF WHAT IS GOING ON THIS AFTERNOON SEEMS TO BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...SO EXPECT THIS SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET. HOWEVER...A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
THE PANHANDLES...SO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES MAY CONTINUE TO SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT.

LOW POPS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...UNTIL THE RIDGE MOVES BACK OVER
US. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
COME BACK UP NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY NEAR 100
AGAIN BY MID WEEK.

MAD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  90  71  91 /  20  20  20  20
HOBART OK         72  89  71  94 /  30  40  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  94  73  96 /  30  20  20  10
GAGE OK           70  86  68  92 /  30  40  30  10
PONCA CITY OK     71  91  72  92 /  10  10  20  20
DURANT OK         72  96  73  96 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/14


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