Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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751
FXUS64 KOUN 281143
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
643 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The 12Z aviation discussion follows....

&&

.AVIATION...
Surface low pressure, centered near the southeast corner of New
Mexico at 1130Z, will move northeast today, while an upper-level
wave advances east from Arizona and New Mexico. Low-level moisture
will increase through the day, with lowering ceilings, a few areas
of restricted visibility this morning, and some strong
thunderstorms this afternoon. There may be a few showers or
thunderstorms this morning, as well, but these would be less
intense, and have higher cloud bases. As the cyclone wraps up
over west Texas, several rounds of thunderstorms are expected
across Oklahoma and north Texas. The first will probably be the
most intense, and is likely to form into a solid line of strong
storms around 29/0200 or so, as it moves through KOKC/KOUN and
vicinity, then advances east from there. Confidence in timing of
storms/ceilings/etc. is moderate through 29/0000Z, then decreases
to low thereafter.


CmS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 349 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017/

DISCUSSION...
An upper-level shortwave trough over the western United States
will advance slowly east today, as low-level moisture is drawn
back north into Oklahoma and north Texas. Elevated warm-air
advection in advance of the trough will likely set off a few
showers and thunderstorms this morning over western Oklahoma and
adjacent parts of Texas. While there is a possibility that some
of these storms may be severe, the main risk of severe storms will
come this afternoon, evening, and into the overnight hours.
Short-range models suggest that supercell storms that form this
afternoon over southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas will
merge into a line of storms, and this line will then move east
across central and eastern Oklahoma late this evening and
overnight.

The upper-level wave will depart to the east tomorrow/tomorrow
night, but not before supporting another high chance of
thunderstorms over much of Oklahoma and possibly north Texas. A
few of these storms may be severe over the eastern half or so of
Oklahoma.

Rain chances finally end Thursday evening, only to return again
Friday evening, as another storm system advances toward the
southern Plains. Again, a few severe storms will be possible on
Saturday.

For this morning, some fog is likely across parts of Oklahoma,
mainly near a line from Woodward to Oklahoma City, but the fog
should not last more than a few hours, and only isolated areas of
dense fog are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  66  57  74  48 /  50  90  60  50
Hobart OK         62  52  72  45 /  80  70  40  40
Wichita Falls TX  71  57  76  49 /  70  80  30  30
Gage OK           58  48  62  41 /  80  80  70  50
Ponca City OK     68  59  71  46 /  20  90  70  50
Durant OK         75  63  74  52 /  20  90  70  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

30/23/23



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