Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 262149
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
349 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN KICKS OFF LATE TONIGHT... WITH SNOW MOVING
IN FRIDAY MORNING AND WINTRY AND WET WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK S/SE ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS INTO NRN NM/PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT. A WEAK WAVE... IT IS
NOT CARRYING TOO MUCH SOURCE MOISTURE WITH IT AND WITH SFC/BL WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION OUT OF THE N/NE... AND THE MID-LEVEL S/SW WINDS...
MOISTENING OF PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
INCREASING MID-LEVEL ASCENT THROUGH FRI AM. WITH THIS IN MIND...
INITIAL ONSET OF SNOW FRI AM WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL AROUND 6AM FOR
FAR WRN OK/WRN N TX. SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING
AS STOUT ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONTINUES ACROSS SRN/SWRN OK AND WRN N
TX. EXPECT ONE OR TWO SNOW BANDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY/TEXOMA BUT HOW WIDE... WHERE... AND WHAT TIME...REMAIN THE
BIG QUESTION MARKS. EXPECT SNOW CHANCES WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE EASTWARD
THROUGH NOON... WITH LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE AFTN. OVERALL... FORCING ALOFT STILL
APPEARS WEAKER THROUGH THE AFTN... SO IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL. AS FOR AMOUNTS... 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS FAR
WESTERN AND SRN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION... WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG THE WRN OK/NRN TX RED RIVER
VALLEY REGION. EXPECT A DUSTING TO AROUND AN INCH FOR LOCATIONS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN OKLAHOMA.

FRIDAY NIGHT... LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRY CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AS THE
INITIAL WAVE LIFTS E/NE. AT THE SAME TIME... SFC/BL FLOW WILL BEGIN
TO VEER TO THE S/SE... ALONG WITH AN INCREASING WARM NOSE BETWEEN
APPROXIMATELY 900 TO 800MB. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WINTRY MIX
DEVELOPING ACROSS TEXOMA/SRN OK EARLY... SLEET/FZRA... WITH LIGHT
SNOW LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NRN OK. THE TRANSITION LINE WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AS THE WARM NOSE INCREASES
ACROSS THE REGION. A TRANSITION TO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LATE AFTN ACROSS WRN N TX AND FAR SRN OK.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RAISE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY... WITH RAIN
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF OK/WRN N TX AND A RA/FZRA MIX
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF OK. BY SUNDAY AFTN ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL
RAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS
FZRA CHANCES RETURN ACROSS NRN OK THROUGH THE MORNING AND RAIN IN
THE AFTN. NO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED... WITH LITTLE TO NO ICE
ACCUMULATIONS.

ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY... AS THE WRN TROUGH FINALLY
BEGINS TO ADVANCE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ON TUESDAY WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS WELL ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SRN OK IN THE AFTN AND TEMPS IN THE 60S. BY NEXT THU... IT LOOKS
LIKE ANOTHER FRONT COMES IN... WITH A POSSIBLY RETURN TO WINTER LIKE
WEATHER.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  16  27  19  33 /   0  50  30  50
HOBART OK         16  24  18  31 /   0  80  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  20  26  23  34 /   0  90  70  50
GAGE OK           11  22  14  31 /  20  60  40  50
PONCA CITY OK     11  26  17  32 /   0  20  20  70
DURANT OK         20  28  24  35 /   0  60  70  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR OKZ009-
     014>016-021>023-027-033>036-038-040-041.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR OKZ037-039-044>046-050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR OKZ047-048-051-052.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR TXZ083.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR TXZ084>090.

&&

$$


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