Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 230321
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1021 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.AVIATION...
6Z TAFS... LOW CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SOME
SITES OVERNIGHT THEN RAIN WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA
EARLY SATURDAY AND SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. THE
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY. THE RAIN WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS DOWN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...THOUGH A
STRAY SHOWER OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. WEAK LIFT WITHIN THE SATURATED AIRMASS WILL
LIKELY PROMOTE DRIZZLE...SO ADDED THAT TO WX GRIDS. STORMS ARE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. ADDITIONAL
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN MOVE INTO FAR
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING...AND MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY AND
INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL. SOME SEVERE WEATHER MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST
STORMS...BUT HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING REMAIN THE PRIMARY FOCUS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

AUSTIN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... LOW CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN SATURDAY MORNING AND
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY RAIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 213 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE PRESENT ROUND OF RAIN MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO GIVE AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAIN TO
THESE AREAS BEFORE LATE EVENING TODAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE,
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF THE STRONG SYNOPTIC-SCALE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE, WILL BEGIN TO BRING RAIN INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA
EARLY SATURDAY AND EXPAND AND MOVE SLOWLY WEST TO EAST OVER NEARLY
ALL OF OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECTIVE UNTIL MONDAY. A LARGE AREA
OF 4 TO 5 INCH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. THE MAJORITY OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO FALL SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WHEN RIVERS ALREADY NEAR OR IN FLOOD WILL RISE EVEN
MORE. HOWEVER, BEFORE THEN, FAIRLY STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL HELP TO
SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY, BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL
PROBABLY KEEP SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOW. MONDAY WILL BE A
TRANSITION DAY TO LESS RAIN BEFORE UNTIL ANOTHER MORE PROGRESSIVE
UPPER WAVE MOVES OVER TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAIN SINCE THE MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. A THIRD
GOOD CHANCE FOR MORE RAIN AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WILL
ARRIVE FRIDAY OR IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  57  74  63  73 /  50 100  90  80
HOBART OK         59  71  61  75 /  50 100  60  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  62  76  64  77 /  40 100  90  70
GAGE OK           58  71  58  76 /  60 100  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     57  72  63  74 /  50 100  80  70
DURANT OK         62  78  66  75 /  50  60 100  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

84/25/25



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