Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 242321
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
620 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.AVIATION...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO DECREASE QUICKLY AT
ONSET OF FORECAST WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 20KTS AND GUSTS OVER 30KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS TO CONT WITH ONLY PATCHES OF CIRRUS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT THEM TO QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH DECOUPLING TONIGHT AS A SFC
HIGH MOVES INTO SE OK. EXPECT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 40S AND 50S
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 30S PRESENT.
WINDS WILL THEN RETURN FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS A
LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS.

THE MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNFICANT SEVERE WX EVENT SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. BY
SATURDAY MORNING...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE SOCAL AND
WESTERN AZ BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. A DRYLINE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE WESTERN OK BORDER
BY SATURDAY AFT/EVE. DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD MOIST CONVECTION
BEFORE 00Z SUN WITH VERY LITTLE FORCING AND A HIGH CIN ENVIRONMENT
LIKELY IN PLACE. HOWEVER...MODELS HINT AT AN INITIAL SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS NEAR OR JUST
AFTER 00Z WHERE CI WILL BE POSSIBLE. IF STORMS DO INITIATE
HERE...AND MOVE NE...DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS THEY MAY
BECOME THE MOST DANGEROUS AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR QUICKLY INCREASES
SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WITH THE ONSET OF A SUBSTANTIAL LLJ. THINK
00-06Z MAY BE THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME FOR TORNADOES SOUTH OF I40
AND WEST OF I35. THEN...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS VERY
POSSIBLE OVER THE REST OF OK DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY
WITH RAPID HEIGHT FALLS AND SURGING DRYLINE IMPACTING THE AREA.
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE SUNDAY.

TIMING IS OF COURSE A BIG CONCERN REGARDING THE FORECAST...BUT
THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL BE A NOCTURNAL
EVENT. MOST OF THE SEVERE WEATHER WILL END BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING
AND EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DRYLINE MOVES INTO EASTERN OK.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE EXTREME
EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY AFT/EVE. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPS ALL THE
WAY INTO THE 60S AND 70S BY TUES. THESE BELOW AVG TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WED IF NOT THURS AS A BROAD DEEP CLOSED
LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  49  84  60  87 /   0   0  10  10
HOBART OK         49  86  61  89 /   0  10   0  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  52  86  61  88 /   0   0   0  40
GAGE OK           47  86  61  90 /   0  10   0  20
PONCA CITY OK     46  84  60  89 /   0   0  10  10
DURANT OK         51  83  56  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/03


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