Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 181721
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1221 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND DECREASE SLIGHTLY
TONIGHT. A STRAY STORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF
KGAG-KCSM-KLAW-KDFW BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

DID NOT MENTION SHRA/TSRA DUE TO LOW COVERAGE AND LOW CHANCES OF
DIRECTLY IMPACTING A TAF SITE.

WINDS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KSPS...BUT SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE THE FORECAST CHALLENGES
OF THE DAY.

SOME CHANGES WERE MADE TO TODAY/S FORECAST MAINLY TO DECREASE
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES NORTHEAST OF A HOBART TO
WAURIKA LINE. LATEST MODEL PERFORMANCE IN SIMULATING ONGOING
WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS IS RATHER
POOR. THUS...HAVE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE WITH TODAY/S FORECAST AND
LEANED ON CONCEPTUAL MODELS/EXPERIENCE.

SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS NEAR GUTHRIE AND PERRY AS OF 4 AM CONTINUES
TO PUSH SOUTH AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE EAST SIDE OF THE OKLAHOMA
CITY METRO AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BRINGING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THIS CLUSTER HAS
NOT WEAKENED AND IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER...IT COULD REACH THE RED
RIVER NEAR AND EAST OF I-35 BY 8 AM...THOUGH TRENDS SUGGEST THIS
CLUSTER COULD DISSIPATE. THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW WITH THIS
CLUSTER. THESE STORMS WERE GENERATED IN NEBRASKA YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOVED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ADDED RAIN CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CLUSTER.

ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
BEHIND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND SHOULD PUSH
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING...BRINGING LOCALIZED
DOWNPOURS. THUS...INCREASED RAIN CHANCES IN THESE AREAS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE.

THIS AFTERNOON...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SHOWERS AND STORMS
LINGERED NEAR A MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR NEAR AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNING/S CONVECTION...PERHAPS OVER
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA OR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE HOTTEST
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. STRONG WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS. KEPT RAIN CHANCES LOW
DUE TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE VERY TRICKY. LATEST MAV/METMOS NUMBERS
ARE PROBABLY WAY TOO HIGH OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NOT
ACCOUNTING FOR LOW LEVEL COOL AIR FROM CONVECTION LAST NIGHT...
THUS WENT SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THEM...ESPECIALLY WITH MORNING
CLOUD COVER AND NEARBY RAIN. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SEVERAL
LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA DID NOT GET OUT OF THE 80S. TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
ESPECIALLY WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE MOST SUN IS EXPECTED.

TONIGHT...KEPT LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS OVER FAR NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA AS A SIMILAR SCENARIO MAY OCCUR COMPARED TO THIS MORNING
WITH STORMS DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND TRYING TO PUSH
SOUTH...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DRY AND HOT WEATHER IS FORECAST. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT STORMS ON THESE DAYS...BUT CHANCES REMAIN TOO
LOW TO MENTION...BELOW 15 PERCENT. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT A
FRONT MAY APPROACH THE AREA TOWARDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  98  74  97 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         72  99  72 100 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  74 100  75 101 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK           70  99  71  99 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     73  97  74  98 /  20  10  10  10
DURANT OK         73  96  73  96 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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