Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 261737
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1237 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
There is quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the aviation
forecasts. In general, mainly VFR conditions are expected. But
there will be scattered thunderstorms and some potential for MVFR
(and even locally IFR) ceilings early Wednesday morning. As far as
the thunderstorms, in this pattern it is a challenge to key on
certain times or locations to bring the chances up high enough to
warrant an inclusion of a tempo or prob30 group. The highest storm
chances will be across central and southwestern Oklahoma and into
north Texas (KOKC, KOUN, KLAW, KSPS). Lower ceilings will be
possible Wednesday morning, especially in areas that received
heavy rainfall this morning (KOKC, KOUN) or any areas that happen
to receive heavy rainfall today or tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1029 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016/

UPDATE...
Updated POPs and QPF to match radar trends.

DISCUSSION...
Convection is already redeveloping over parts of central Oklahoma
and western north Texas. This activity is expected to continue and
spread into parts of southern Oklahoma through this afternoon.
Heavy rainfall with the potential for flooding remains the biggest
threat with these storms.

Day

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 646 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Aviation discussion for the 12 UTC TAFs is below.

AVIATION...
Big changes were made to several TAF sites now through 19 UTC.

MVFR/IFR conditions with some BR are expected to impact locations
near KOKC, KOUN, KPNC, KCSM, and KHBR through at least 19 UTC, and
may last beyond 23 UTC. The worst conditions with brief LIFR
conditions possible will be near KOKC, KOUN, KCSM, and KHBR
before 15 UTC. KLAW, KWWR, and KGAG may be affected as well, but
chances are low that these lower conditions will occur at these
sites. All locations will be MVFR at worst by 18 UTC, and
confidence is rather high that all sites away from TSRA will be
VFR by 01 UTC.

ISO-SCT TSRA will form across the area, mainly after 21 UTC east
of KEND-KHBR. Added VCTS mention for 3 hours at some locations.
Variable gusty winds and brief MVFR or lower conditions are
possible with TSRA.

Additional MVFR/IFR conditions with BR may form after 06 UTC
across the area, but were not mentioned due to low confidence of
occurrence.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 243 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Rain chances and heavy rainfall potential for the next several
days are the main concerns.

For now, will not issue any Flash Flood Watches as any flooding
should remain small scale in nature. Also, have low confidence on
where heavy rainfall and flood flood occur during the next few
days.

This morning, will keep the highest rain chances 30-40% over
southern Oklahoma and north Texas. As of 230 am this morning,
isolated to widespread showers and thunderstorms were from near
Hollis and Altus OK to Norman. Overall, these showers and storms
were weakening as they were drifting south. This activity has
pushed an outflow boundary into far southern Oklahoma which may
trigger new showers and storms in a moist airmass. Locally heavy
rainfall of a few inches and small scale flooding are possible
with this activity, which may weaken throughout the morning as the
low level jet weakens.

This afternoon and evening, additional isolated to scattered
showers will form across the area. Pinpointing exactly where and
when remains tricky. Kept the highest rain chances 40-50% east of
a Wichita Falls to Ponca City line where highest precipitable
water values are forecast, generally 1.8-2.2", not far from the
maximum climatology values for this time of year. Locally heavy
rainfall of a few inches and flooding are possible with slow
moving storms during this time frame. Some locations, especially
in northwestern Oklahoma, will remain dry. Due to weak shear,
storms will remain pulse and fairly unorganized in nature. Severe
potential remains low, though a damaging wind gust or two near 60
mph cannot completely be ruled out.

As for highs today, believe cloud cover and abundant moisture will
keep them down. Preferred the lower model guidance numbers which
keeps highs below 90 degrees in parts of central and northern
Oklahoma. However, it will be very humid, especially since rain
occurred last evening, and actual surface dewpoints may be higher
than models depict, possibly in the mid to upper 70s across the
eastern two thirds of Oklahoma.

Wednesday appears to be very similar to today. More storms with
locally heavy rainfall and flooding mainly near and southeast of
I-44 are possible. Temperatures will remain slightly below average
for this time of year, though it will be more humid than average
with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s.

Thursday, slightly drier air may move into the area and allow for
slightly lower rain chances as well as hotter temperatures. There
is still a chance for some strong storms with locally heavy
rainfall and gusty winds. Temperatures may return to closer to
average for this time of year. Humid conditions can be expected.

Thursday night through Sunday, a few organized complexes of
thunderstorms may affect the area, mainly across the northeastern
half of Oklahoma as the mid/upper northwest flow strengthens.
Timing of these complexes remain uncertain. Generally went 20-40%
rain chances during this time frame. Some strong to severe storms
may be possible with damaging winds along with additional heavy
rainfall and localized flooding. Temperatures are forecast to be
near average, though confidence is very low as complexes of storms
can significantly alter the nearby environment.

Sunday night into early next week, drier and hotter weather may
occur, though confidence is low.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  89  73  91  72 /  60  40  40  30
Hobart OK         93  74  94  72 /  30  30  20  20
Wichita Falls TX  94  76  95  75 /  50  40  40  30
Gage OK           91  70  93  69 /  20  10  20  20
Ponca City OK     87  72  91  72 /  40  30  30  30
Durant OK         93  74  92  74 /  40  40  50  30

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/01



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