Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 291118
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
518 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS MOST LOCATIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION IN KPNC WHERE MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. BREEZY WINDS TODAY WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING LATER THIS
AFTN AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE COOL DOWN BEGINS TODAY WITH HIGHS 20 TO 25 DEGREES COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY. BREEZY N TO NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY BUT WIND
SPEEDS WILL DECREASE LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH SETTLES INTO
THE REGION. THE COOLER TEMPS CONT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS CA AND AZ INTO MEXICO FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THEN A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE FA STARTING FRIDAY AFTN IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA AND SPREADING ACROSS THE FA. CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL BE
PREDOMINATE OVER THE AREA EXCEPT FOR MAYBE PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OK
WHERE WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
WINTER PRECIP WILL BE SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY BRINGING COLDER AIR TO THE AREA. WHEN/WHERE/HOW
MUCH/WHAT WINTER PRECIP WILL OCCUR IS DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF
THIS COLD AIR AT THE SFC AND THE TIMING/PATH OF THE SHORTWAVE THIS
WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING COLDER AIR ALOFT. CURRENTLY THE MODELS
DIFFER ON THESE CONDITIONS FOR THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE WITH THE GFS
THE QUICKEST WITH THE FRONT AND HAS THE PATH OF THE SHORTWAVE
FURTHER SOUTHWEST WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE BEST CHANCE FOR WINTER
PRECIP. HOWEVER... WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR LATER THIS WEEKEND. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF
NORTHERN OK. OTHERWISE... DECENT RAINFALL WILL AFFECT THE FA WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FA.

AFTER THE WEEKEND... THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  54  29  48  36 /   0   0   0  40
HOBART OK         55  30  48  35 /   0   0  10  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  58  33  50  38 /   0   0  10  40
GAGE OK           52  25  46  32 /   0   0  20  70
PONCA CITY OK     51  25  47  34 /   0   0   0  40
DURANT OK         60  36  52  38 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/25/25



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