Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 200350
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1050 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Hot dome of high pressure aloft remains centered over the Central
Plains with strong zonal flow over the Northern plains. An MCS
continues to move southeast across southwest Minnesota this
afternoon. Otherwise, a slow moving front extends east across
eastern South Dakota from low pressure centered over southwestern
South Dakota. The ongoing MCS has complicated the surface pattern
slightly, but as the low continues to slowly sink south, convection
continues to bubble over south central SD. Some eluted severe
thunderstorms look possible given moderate instability and
30-40kts of 0-6km bulk shear. Should this activity continue
east/southeast as CAMs suggest, a couple of our northern counties
could see isolated thunderstorms through the evening hours with
hail and damaging winds the primary hazards.

Otherwise hot and humid conditions continue with surface dewpoints
well into the 70s and temperatures topping out in the 90s. Models
have been under-forecasting late afternoon/early evening
dewpoints as of late and so have adjusted forecast for next few
days accordingly. Heat advisory/excessive heat headlines will
continue as is through Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

By Saturday the ridge will flatten out and cool temps down slightly.
Model blends do give us a few hit and miss chances for low pops with
best chance most likely late Sat night into Sun across southeastern
Nebraska. Otherwise upper ridge looks like it will build back into
the area next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Earlier intense storms over north-central NE have since weakened
with additional, more recent development along the MO River south
of KSUX. Short-range model guidance continues to indicate a band
of thunderstorms developing across northeast NE and west-central
IA overnight, though confidence in this scenario is diminishing.
As such, will not mention any thunder in the KOFK TAF. Plan-view
VAD data indicate the strengthening of a southwesterly LLJ from
south-central NE into central IA with LLWS likely impacting KOMA
and KLNK overnight. Otherwise, prevailing VFR conditions are
expected.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Friday for NEZ034-044-045-
     050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for NEZ011-012-015>018-
     030>033-042-043.

IA...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Friday for IAZ055-069-079-
     080-090-091.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for IAZ043-056.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kern
LONG TERM...Kern
AVIATION...Mead



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