Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 091846
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
146 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE REGION IN BETWEEN AN
UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
OVERHEAD WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW PROGGED TO SET UP EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT
HIGHS TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 TODAY. YESTERDAY`S VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN EXTENSIVE SMOKE PLUME STRETCHING
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADIAN FIRES INTO THE DAKOTAS. IF THICK
ENOUGH...THIS COULD LIMIT TEMPS TODAY AS WELL BUT THAT IS TOUGH TO
DETERMINE AT THIS POINT. THE RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP DO
INDICATE AN AREA OF PCPN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A QUICK MOVING IMPULSE DROPPING
THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN
CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK THIS AFTERNOON AND
SO THINK SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS COULD DEVELOP
OVER OUR WESTERN CWA AS EARLY AS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
NOSE OF MODEST LLVL JET SHIFTS EASTWARD.

A BIT OF A BREAK IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
WHILE STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION BRINGS JULY MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
REGION. ELONGATED SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS OF WYOMING AND COLORADO WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT
AHEAD OF IT. BEST CHANCES FOR TSTMS WILL AGAIN BE NOCTURNAL AS THE
NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LLVL JET ADVECTS EAST. THIS COMBINED WITH
STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD AID IN ELEVATED TSTMS
ACROSS THE CWA. THE SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DRIFT INTO THE
CNTRL PLAINS FRIDAY...PLACING A BOUNDARY ACROSS THE KS/NEB BORDER
BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

ROUNDS OF NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
A SERIES OF WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES DRIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
IT IS HARD TO RULE OUT ANY ONE PARTICULAR PERIOD SO HAVE LEFT SMALL
POPS IN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE
CONTINUOUS ACTIVITY. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY/TUESDAY BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONE AREA THAT MAY HAVE MVFR CEILINGS IS
THE KLNK AREA SHRA AND TSRA IS POSSIBLE IN KLNK AFTER 00Z AND
WOULD BE IN THE STRONGER CELLS. SMOKE PLUME FROM FIRES IN CANADA
ARE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY IN NEBRASKA
AND IOWA. ASIDE FROM SLIGHTLY HAZY SKY CONDITIONS...THIS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON VISIBILITIES.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...SMITH



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