000
FXUS63 KOAX 110451
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1151 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHWEST STATES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAIN STATES BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS...LEE SIDE
SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM EASTERN
WYOMING ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS/WESTERN
MISSOURI BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DRAG A SHARP COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY...ALONG WITH A LIKELY CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A QUICK MOVING MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION. PCPN SHOULD SPREAD SOUTH INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AFTER 12Z...WITH PCPN TYPE PRIMARILY AS RAIN
WITH SOME SNOW MIXING IN BY LATE MORNING AND EVENTUALLY CHANGING
OVER TO LIGHT SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. PCPN WILL SPREAD SOUTH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS RAIN...MIXING WITH AND CHANGING OVER TO
LIGHT SNOW AFTER 00Z FOR MOST OF THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES DROP
BEHIND THE FRONT. WE ARE EXPECTING MOST OF THIS PCPN TO FALL AS
RAIN...WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS UNDER A 0.5" BY
THE TIME THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT TUESDAY EVENING. THE OTHER ISSUE
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SFC WINDS REACHING
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT GREATLY
INCREASES BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL GO AHEAD AND
ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA FOR THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STRONG 850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND FAVORABLE MIXING WINDS SHOULD HELP REBOUND TEMPS INTO
THE 60S ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS 12Z MODELS
SHOW CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED FLOW AND A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION. SOME LOW POPS REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE FIRST EXPECTED WAVE BUT DRY THEREAFTER DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY SEEN IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THE SECOND WAVE.
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST GUIDANCE MAINTAINING
CURRENT FORECAST TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

VFR CONDITIONS UNDER BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
DROP SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE
NORTH AND INCREASING TO 20 TO 30KT BEHIND THE FRONT. THOSE STRONG
NORTH WINDS SHOULD HIT KOFK BY 15Z...THEN KOMA AND KLNK BY 17Z.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT BY A FEW
HOURS...WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS A FEW HOURS
LATER. SO EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 18Z AND IFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z LASTING INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ050-065-066-
     068-078-088>093.

IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DERGAN