Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 270855
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
355 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(today through Friday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

QPF variance amongst the models is making fcst over the next
several days problematic at best. Part of the problem is timing
differences with respect to embedded impulses in NW flow aloft in
conjunction with no significant thermal advection to hang your hat
on. Given this...seems best approach is to base fcst on solution
means.

88D radar mosaic this morning showing line of convection over cntrl
Neb darting SEWD and should be crossing into the wrn CWA periphery
any time now. The last several runs of HRRR/RAP13 indicate any pcpn
activity over the CWA should be at a close sometime around
12z...so will gear morning POPS as such. Later this evening...area
of convection may fire along/south I-80 along leading edge of weak
sfc bndry migrating south. Post-frontal pcpn may be possible as
well within regime of steep mid-lyr lapse rates/weak mid lyr
ageostrophic lift...with destabilization being aided somewhat
further by passing weak impusle. On Thursday...pcpn chances look
somewhat remote given drier air mass will be building in from the
north. Thursday night/Friday...pcpn chances increase from SW-NE in
response to another passing shortwave trof. It appears per latest
GFS/ECM/CMC the brunt of activity will be found west of the CWA.
For Friday night...am content to just go with token small POPS as
QPF fields are all over the place.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Continuing pcpn on Saturday/Saturday night will finally push to the
east on Sunday in response to a low amplitude upper ridge
approaching from the west. Dry conditions then the rest of the
extend pds. And with increasing hgts progged to encompass the
plains...a rebound in temps are expected with max temps once again
pushing into the mid 90s Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

VFR conditions outside of any thunderstorm activity. Thunderstorms
are weakening and included showers and some thunder a norfolk and
these should weaken enough not to mention at KOMA and KLNK. Did
mention some gusty winds as well. The next shortwave in the
parade of disturbances in northwest flow would affect the taf
sites Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. For now included a
PROB30...but will need to hone in on timing with future forecasts.


&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...Zapotocny


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