000
FXUS63 KOAX 030749
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
149 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

WV IMAGERY REVEALING AN ELONGATED UPPER TROF EXTENDING FROM CNTRL
CANADA TO JUST OFF THE SRN CA COASTLINE WITH NRN SEGMENT SHORTWAVE
TROF OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND CLOSED SRN CIRCULATION OVER SRN CA. AT
THE SFC...LEADING EDGE OF INBOUND COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING
ACROSS ERN ND...SW SD...NERN WY WITH REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC ALREADY
SHOWING AREA OF SNOW JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER SD AND THE NEB
PANH WITHIN AREA OF STOUT 295K UPGLIDE.

MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE WHERE/WHEN PCPN TYPE CHANGE WILL OCCUR
AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO THE CWA THIS MORNING.

GIVEN DRY LOW LYR PER OAX SOUNDING...INITIAL PCPN ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE SRN CWA UNTIL
INFLUX OF BNDRY LYR MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH TO SATURATE THE
COLUMN OUT FOR RA OR FZRA TO COMMENCE. MEANWHILE TO THE
NORTH...GFSLAMP/HRRR PUT THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE CWA SOMETIME
BTWN 13Z-14Z THIS MORNING. WX TYPE ALGORITHM IS SHOWING -S/FZRA
INITIALLY BEFORE CHANGE TO -S/FZRA MIX SHORTLY AFTER 12Z...THEN ALL
SNOW BTWN 15Z-18Z. THERE WILL ONLY BE A BRIEF PERIOD FOR ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR AND AT THIS POINT BELIEVE MOST OF THE NRN CWA
WILL SEE LESS THAN AN INCH. GIVEN ALL THIS...LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL/ONLY MINOR ROADWAY ICING...NO HEADLINES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME. ALSO...SFC WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO
CONSIDER ISSUING HEADLINE FOR MEETING ADV CRITERIA.

HOWEVER...WILL EMPHASIZE THE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THOUGH IN THE
HWO.

OTHERWISE DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE NEAR TERM PDS WITH A WARMING
TREND BEGINNING IN EARNEST ON THURSDAY.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES NEED IN THE EXTENDED PDS AS BOTH MEX/ECMMOS PROG
DRY WX WITH A NICE TEMP REBOUND NEXT WEEKEND AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
ALL THE INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

MVFR CIGS HAVE MOVED INTO KOMA/KLNK AS OF 05Z AND WILL MOVE INTO
KOFK IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. BELOW THE CIGS THE AIR IS PRETTY
DRY STILL AND THUS ANY LIGHT PRECIP IS STILL SEVERAL HOURS AWAY.
WE WILL CONT TO MENTION SOME -FZDZ AT ALL 3 TAF SITES...BUT
ANYTHING WILL BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY AT BEST. ALSO INCLUDED A BRIEF
PERIOD OF PL AT KOFK WHERE SATURATION AND LIFT IS A BIT BETTER.
OTHERWISE CDFNT STILL LOOKS TO MOV NW TO SE THRU THE TAF SITES
TUE MRNG WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT TO A BKN VFR DECK BY EARLY AFTERNOON
AT ALL SITES.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD