000
FXUS63 KOAX 311722
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1222 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE PATTERN WILL BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE IN THE SHORT TERM OF THE
FORECAST OVER WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE LARGE-
SCALE PATTERN OF A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND A TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE PERIOD...BUT
A NUMBER OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL TRACK SEWD THROUGH THE
CNTRL PLAINS IN THE SHORT TERM LEADING TO AT LEAST SOME CHC OF
PRECIP.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC THIS MORNING INDICATED SOME WEAK RETURNS
OVER ERN SD ASSOCIATED AN AREA OF WAA ON THE NOSE OF A LOW-LEVEL
JET THAT EXTNDD FM NW NEB INTO SRN SD. SHORT-TERM MODELS CONT TO
WANT TO TRY AND MOVE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SWD IN NE NEB THIS
MORNING AND ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ARE LACKING THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. THIS ACTIVITY
MAY MAKE IT AS FAR S AS HIGHWAY 92 THRU THE MRNG BUT AS THE LOW-
LEVEL JET WEAKENS...AND THE ACTIVITY CONTS TO MOV S OF THE WEAKER
STATIC STABILITY IT SHOULD DIMINISH. EARLY MRNG WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DOES INDC A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE BORDER INTO ND.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN AREA OF DPVA/HEIGHT FALLS
WILL MOVE SEWD TODAY ACROSS ERN SD AND INTO IA TONIGHT ALONG WITH
A WEAK SFC REFLECTION OF A LOW OVER CNTRL NEB AND FRNT EXTNG EWD.
MOISTURE WILL CONT TO BE LIMITED AND THE STABILITY IS RELATIVELY
HIGH...BUT THE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SOME ISO/SCT SHRA REDEVELOPING THIS AFTN IN NEB AND TRYING TO
TRACK SEWD THRU THE ENVG. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO DIMINISH THRU
THE EVNG THOUGH WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING AND THE SHORTWAVE
PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST.

THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE INTO SE NEB/SW IA TONIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY LINGER IN THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AS WELL. ALTHOUGH FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL BE MORE LIMITED DURING THE DAY ON SAT...WITH A
WEAK BOUNDARY IN THE AREA AND COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WE
CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER DEVELOPING NEAR THIS WEAKENING BOUNDARY
BUT FELT PROBABILITIES WERE NOT HIGH ENOUGH CURRENTLY TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST YET.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

ON SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RETURN
FLOW WILL SET UP OVER CNTRL NEB WITH A FOCUSED AREA OF LOW TO MID
LEVEL WAA. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW SHRA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO
SUN MRNG OVER CNTRL NEB THAT COULD CLIP A PART OF OUR NE NEB
AREA...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE WE LEFT
THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE THE CWA SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK
AS SOME LARGER-SCALE CHANGES START TO TAKE SHAPE. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL TEND TO FILL SOME THIS WEEK AND THE
RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL US WILL FLATTEN AND ALLOW FOR A BIT BETTER
MOISTURE /BOTH FROM THE GULF AND MONSOONAL/ TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION ALONG WITH SOME SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TOWARD MIDWEEK. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A DECENT SHOT OF SOME SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY
THOUGH THE TIMING OF ANY FRONT IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS RANGE.
WE WILL CONT WITH THE MID CHC POPS FOR THE TUE NIGHT/WED PERIOD
FOR A START. OTHERWISE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...KERN