Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 060826
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
326 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

HIRES MODELS ARE HIGHLIGHTING PORTIONS OF THE SRN CWA WHERE
INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL COME TOGETHER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. REGIONAL RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWING LINE OF
ACTIVITY STRETCHING FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES TO SWRN NEB ALONG AN
INTENSE COLD FRONT TRACKING SLOWLY TO THE EAST. EXPECT THE SFC BNDRY
TO PUSH INTO THE CWA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH GFSLAMP
METEOGRAMS DEPICTING THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE OMAHA METRO SHORTLY
BEFORE NOON.

THIS AFTN AND EVENING...WARM/MOIST DEEP LYR AIR MASS COINCIDENT TO
MAX OMEGA WILL FOUND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR WHERE PCPN
EFFICIENCY WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE TO INDUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE WIDESPREAD IN NATURE AS PWS
VALUES INCREASE TO 2.5" OR MORE AND CORFIDI VECTORS DECREASE TO
LESS THAN 10KT. LATEST FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE THOUGH SUGGEST THAT
HEADLINES ARE PROBABLY NOT NEEDED.

COOL...STABLE AIR MASS QUICKLY FILTERS IN THEN EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAN THE CANADIAN AIR
MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU AT LEAST WED NIGHT...THUS WILL OPT
FOR DRY FCST.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

BOTH ECM AND GFS DEPICT A GRADUAL LARGE SCALE TRANSITION TO A HIGH
PRESSURE DOME ENVELOPING THE CONUS WHICH WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO
REBOUND INTO NEAR NORMAL TERRITORY. PCPN CHANCES THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT REVOLVING AROUND A STALLED SFC BNDRY ALONG THE NEB/KS BORDER
LIFTING ACROSS THE CWA BEFORE REACHING THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY
AFTN.  WITH AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE DOME BUILDING IN...FEEL
COMFORTABLE ENOUGH TO REMOVE POPS AND GO DRY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INITIALLY AND PERHAPS THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE TAF CYCLE. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL CENTER AROUND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION LATER
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW MVFR CIGS MAY
LINGER AROUND IN THE AFTERNOON WITHIN THESE THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME NORTH
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS IN THE
AFTERNOON COULD BE AS HIGH AS 20-30KTS.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...KERN



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