Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 271818
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
118 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Convective complex across central NE/KS will continue to push
eastward into our this morning. Thus have increased pops for this
morning into the 60-80 percent range. Severe storms across north
central KS will probably weaken as they push eastward into our
area. Areas north of I80 may not even see much lightning this
morning with just showers or a rumble of thunder. Areas along/south
of I80 have the best chance to see any stronger storms this
morning, as storms take advantage of daylight and warming
temperatures, and will have to watch for storm intensification
14-17z, again south of I80 as the complex continues to make
eastward progress and clear the CWA 16-19z, depending on area.
Then, additional strong convective development is possible this
afternoon/evening, but latest Highres CAMs suggest the strongest
storms may indeed by /just/ south of the forecast area in eastern
KS/central MO, since most of our area may be too far north within
the cool sector, and may not have sufficient time to recover after
the morning convection. Will still have shower/storm chances this
afternoon and early evening, but right now, the greater threat
appears to be setting up south of the region this
afternoon/evening.

The remainder of the holiday weekend is looking great with dry
weather and temperatures in the mid 70s. There is a weak wave that
moves through Sunday night, but not strong enough to generate
precip just yet.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Tuesday and Wednesday both look dry, but rain chances return by
Thursday and Friday as moisture and dynamics return to the area.
Temps through the extended in the 50s and night and 70s during the
day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Morning convection had moved east of the area at the start of the
period with extensive area of clearing in its wake. Clouds are
expected to increase through 00Z with the approach of upper trough
over the western High Plains and some isolated showers also
possible. Overall however, VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the period with upper trough moving east of KOMA and KLNK
by 12Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DeWald
LONG TERM...DeWald
AVIATION...Fobert



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