Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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621
FXUS63 KOAX 011728
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1128 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(today through Saturday)
Issued at 247 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

No active weather progged heading into this weekend.

Good agreement amongst the medium range models a Pac NW shortwave
trof moving into the Central Plains will induce the next round of
pcpn Saturday night. Pcpn initiation is progged to occur generally
over wrn KS Saturday aftn then expand newd toward the CWA.
However..expansion of activity though will be curbed as it
approaches the I-80 corridor where condensation deficit become
increasing unfavorable to allow for saturation to occur. Thus will
gear POPs to reflect this. As for pcpn type...wet bulb temps suggest
RA/SN mix during the evening hours...then SN aft midnight
with no significant accumulations expected.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 247 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

ECM/GFS/CMC solutions in one degree or another advertise the
potential for a potent winter storm system affecting the Central
Plains next Tues/Wed/Thurs. Because of model consistency the last
couple runs indicating the possibly of this event...confidence at
this point is somewhat higher. However...there it is still too
much uncertainty with respect to timing/SN amounts/placement to
try and pin down details.

As for temps...the bottom falls out heading into next week as both
the ECMMOS/MEX/EKDMOS all prog lows in the single digits come
Thursday morning at KOMA.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

MVFR ceilings continue at KOMA/KOFK and are expected to remain
MVFR into the evening. Stratus just into VFR range is then
expected through the night. Could be some potential for at least
KOFK to bounce back down to MVFR tonight, but have not included a
group for this possibility with this issuance, as guidance is
split. Ceilings will break for all sites on Friday morning.
Northwest winds around 7-10kt today will decrease to light and
variable or light northwesterly tonight through Friday morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...Mayes



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