Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 291459
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
959 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATES A QUITE EXTENSIVE SMOKE LAYER OVERHEAD
FROM WILDFIRES IN CANADA...SIGNIFICANTLY MORESO THAN THAN YESTERDAY
WHICH JUST A VERY THIN PLUME. THIS SMOKE IS RESULTING IN HAZY
SKIES...WHICH IS ALSO ALLOWING FOR A MUCH MORE SLOWER RISE IN
TEMPS...WHICH WILL ALSO IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES. PILOT REPORTS
INDICATE THE SMOKE LAYER IS FROM ABOUT 4500 TO 10000 AGL...WHICH
IS LOWER THAN WE WOULD HAVE THOUGHT. INITIALLY THOUGHT THOUGHT
THERE WOULDN`T BE A NOTICEABLE SMELL AT THE SURFACE...BUT AT
LEAST ONE REPORT OF A SMOKY SMELL HAS BEEN RECEIVED SO FAR. WE
DID CUT BACK DAYTIME TEMPS BY ONE OR TWO DEGREES...AND MAY NEED TO
CUT BACK EVEN MORE BASED ON DIURNAL RISES THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE RETURN OF MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY IS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN.

NORTH-NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING...AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO SUPPRESS WESTERN RIDGE.
THE RESULT WILL BE UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME INTO MID WEEK AND
BEYOND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL
SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY...KEEPING EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA IN
NORTHWEST TO NORTH LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO MODEST
LOW LEVEL MIXING...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...WE
SHOULD SEE HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON APPROACHING 90 IN MANY SPOTS.

SURFACE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURES BEGIN TO
LOWER IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. STRONG 90KT 300MB JET ON BACK SIDE OF THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL SLAM INTO WESTERN IOWA TONIGHT...SIMILAR TO PATTERN
OF SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING WHEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BUBBLED
UP IN WESTERN IOWA. COULD SEE SAME SCENARIO LATER TONIGHT...SO WILL
MAINTAIN OUR CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES FIRE WILL BE EXITING TO
THE SOUTH TUESDAY MORNING.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO STRONGER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OFF THE OREGON
COAST SCHEDULED TO ROLL THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOWERING SURFACE PRESSURES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION WILL COMMENCE TUESDAY WITH APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE...
INDUCING GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MINOR MOISTURE RETURN INTO OUR
AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE MARKEDLY
TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AS WAVE MOVES CLOSER.
EXPECT AXIS OF HIGHEST CHANCES TO LIE FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHWEST IOWA...JUST NORTHEAST OF TIGHTEST GRADIENT OF LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE WHERE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS MAXIMIZED. MOISTURE
PROFILES FROM VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED...THUS LIMITED INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS.

SYSTEM IS SCHEDULED TO BE MOVING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING...TAKING MOST PRECIP WITH IT. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING...BUT WOULD EXPECT
THE BALANCE OF WEDNESDAY TO BE DRY FOR MOST AREAS. EAST TO NORTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS BEHIND WAVE/SURFACE LOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE NEAR 90 FORECAST MONDAY/TUESDAY. HAVE HIGHS
CLOSER TO 80 IN OUR NORTH AND EAST...WITH MIDDLE 80S INTO SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WHEN ANOTHER
AND STRONGER SHORTWAVE SETTLES INTO OUR AREA. GFS HAS COME AROUND TO
ECMWF SOLUTION IN SHOWING THIS WAVE DEEPENING JUST TO OUR EAST ON
FRIDAY...THEN DRIFTING FARTHER EAST SATURDAY AS YET ANOTHER
IMPULSE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WILL SEE INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT... AS FIRST WAVE MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS AND MOISTURE/INSTABILITY MODESTLY INCREASE. AGAIN
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS RELATIVELY LOW WITH BEST MOISTURE PACIFIC IN
NATURE AT MID LEVELS.

WE SHOULD BE ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHEN PRECIP
CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BETWEEN UPPER IMPULSES SUGGESTS A DRY DAY SATURDAY BEFORE A
REINTRODUCTION OF THUNDER CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE...WITH A FEW CU
POSSIBLY BRUSHING KOMA TODAY. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND
PEAK AROUND 8-10KT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BECOME LIGHT AGAIN
TONIGHT.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...MAYES


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