Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 251738
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1238 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CENTERS AROUND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
TUESDAY AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE ENTIRE
FORECAST.

A FAIRLY QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED AS WE RECHARGE FOR NEXT ROUND OF SEVERE
STORMS ON TUESDAY. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DEPARTING
UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THIS IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE NORTHEAST TOWARD MINNESOTA TODAY. NEXT TROUGH HAS JUST
MOVED ONTO THE WEST COAST WITH 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWING A
BROAD AREA OF 50 METER HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. AT
THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA. THIS IS ALLOWING A TRAILING COLD FRONT TO PUSH EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY 18Z OR SO. A VERY PLEASANT DAY IS IN STORE WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S TODAY. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS OUR NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S IN OUR SOUTH
WITH FAIRLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

THE WEST COAST TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CLOSED CIRCULATION
AS IT MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TONIGHT...BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO EARLY TUESDAY ALLOWING STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW...BUT IT LOOKS TO STAY CLOSE TO THE NE/KS BORDER WITH AN
EASTWARD EXTENDING WARM FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. IMPRESSIVE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN
CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
STREAMS NORTH OFF THE GULF. PW`S OFF THE NAM SUGGEST 200% OF
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITHIN THE THETA-E AXIS. MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS OUTLOOKED FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON POTENTIAL FOR ANY HYDRO CONCERNS AS SOILS ARE
ALREADY CLOSE TO...IF NOT ALREADY...SATURATED IN SOME AREAS.
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME TUESDAY MORNING
SHOULD INCREASE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS/CENTRAL NEBRASKA AROUND 12Z AND
SPREAD NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO SEVERE
POTENTIAL DEVELOPING FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE
WARM SECTOR DRIFTS NORTH AND DRYLINE SHIFTS EAST. VERY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES BY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY
AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 35-45KTS SHOULD COME TOGETHER
TO PRODUCE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. TORNADO
THREAT WILL BE GREATEST IN OUR SOUTH ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT TO THE NORTH OF
THIS AREA. MAIN FOCUS IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE ALONG THE
EASTWARD MOVING DRYLINE...WHICH FOR THE MOST PART COULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF OUR AREA ACROSS KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA BUT COULD REACH INTO
OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES LATE TUESDAY EVENING. MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS OUTLOOKED FOR DAY 2 WITH A MODERATE RISK IN OUR
SOUTHWEST.

STORMS WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND SCATTERED...LIKELY
ELEVATED...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT TIME
HOURS AS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW. WEDNESDAY FORECAST WILL BE QUITE MESSY AND DEPENDENT ON
EXTENT OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. SOME RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND SO WE HAVE BEEN OUTLOOKED IN THE
SWODY3 FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

WE ACTUALLY HAVE A CHANCE FOR DRY CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY AS THE SLOW
MOVING UPPER LOW FINALLY DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS YET ANOTHER CLOSED LOW MOVES OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND TAKES AIM AT THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR THE
WEEKEND. AN OPEN GULF AND CLOSED LOW MEAN CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z AS MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. LOWERING CIGS AND A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD NORTH OF THE FRONT AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT
KLNK AND KOMA LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...LIKELY BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...DERGAN



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