Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 280753
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
253 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. COOL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS TODAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR...ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MAY CLIP OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES TODAY. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ALSO DEVELOP TODAY WITH 15-25 MPH NORTHWEST
WINDS...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO NEAR 60
SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S NORTH AND MID 30S
FROM OMAHA SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. MAY BE SOME STEAM
FOG ALONG THE RIVERS DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS.

A WEAK RETURN FLOW TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY...BUT
MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT POOR. TEMPS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH THE COOLER READINGS ACROSS WESTERN IOWA.

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER DOES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WHICH COULD BRING A SMALL SHOWER CHANCE TO AREAS NORTH/EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL KEEP IT DRY LOCALLY.

BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP AGAIN THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY WITH
COOL NORTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS IN
THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. COOL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY WITH
TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY AS SURFACE FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHEAST. A NEW UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST AND ACROSS
THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. WHILE GFS/ECMWF ARE SIMILAR IN SYNOPTIC
FEATURES...THE GFS IS PRODUCING SHOWERS WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE DRY. THUS...CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME
IS RATHER LOW AND OPTED TO KEEP EXISTING POPS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE UNTIL BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA SHOULD DECREASE FOR
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS MOSTLY UNDER
10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME GUSTY AS MIXING INCREASES TUESDAY
MORNING. LOOK FOR SOME GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS.

LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY IN SOUTH DAKOTA ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER



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