Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 210931
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
331 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

A MILDER WEEKEND WITH SPORADIC RAIN/DRIZZLE CHANCES ARE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS.

MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A MAINLY ZONAL LOOK OVER
OUR AREA TODAY TO A DEEP TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DURING THIS TRANSITION...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP COLDER AIR TO OUR NORTH WHILE PUMPING MILDER AIR INTO THE
PLAINS.

WITHIN THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THIS MORNING...A SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED
MOVING OFF THE ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...INDUCING LOWERING
SURFACE PRESSURES THERE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING AHEAD OF IT.
GULF MOISTURE HAD WORKED AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE DEW
POINTS WERE NEAR 50. STRATUS HAD ALSO DEVELOPED IN THIS HIGHER-
MOISTURE REGIME...AND IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD/DEVELOP NORTH INTO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA BY THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE SHOULD LEAD TO PATCHY DRIZZLE IN THESE
AREAS...AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT RAIN WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
RESIDE IN FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING BEFORE WAVE BEGINS MOVING OFF TO
THE EAST LATER TONIGHT. GIVEN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...EXPECT AREAS WHERE PRECIPITATION OR DRIZZLE OCCURS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE DURATION OF PRECIPITATION.

BEHIND SHORTWAVE...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST ON
SATURDAY LEADING TO A DRY DAY AND FAIRLY MILD. HAVE HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 40S IF NOT LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTH.

A SIMILAR PATTERN TO FRIDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BEGINS APPROACHING THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE WITH LOW CLOUDS POTENTIALLY LINGERING IN
OUR SOUTHEAST...WHICH WILL SPREAD NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT. AGAIN WEAK LIFT IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE FOR A GOOD PART OF EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL ABOVE FREEZING
FOR ANY AREAS THAT SEE PRECIPITATION. MEANWHILE...A STRONGER MID
LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE DAKOTAS BY 12Z
SUNDAY...PUSHING COLDER AIR TOWARD NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. ASSOCIATED
WIND SHIFT SHOULD ARRIVE THERE BEFORE SUNRISE THEN SWEEP THROUGH THE
REST OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...TAKING MOISTURE AND SMALL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH IT. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD REACH THE 40S
EVERYWHERE BUT WOULD EXPECT FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE
NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE ROLLER-COASTER TEMPERATURE TREND WILL START HEADING DOWNHILL
AGAIN EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES...IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WILL
BOOKEND THE LONG TERM PERIOD MONDAY AND THURSDAY.

COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY WILL PLUNGE TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S FOR HIGHS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MID LEVEL LOW IN THE DAKOTAS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD
WILL WORK INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY NIGHT...SWINGING A LOBE OF
VORTICITY AND MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO IOWA. AN AREA
OF LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AFFECTING NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION BEHIND THIS WAVE AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER
DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA MAY WARM TEMPERATURES TOWARD 40 ON
TUESDAY...BUT MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. 850 TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REBOUND TOWARD 0C BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THEN DROP TO -10C BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LEADING
TO HIGHS IN THE 20S ON THANKSGIVING. MODELS DIVERGE ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DURING THIS TIME WITH GFS SUGGESTING SNOW CHANCES FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...DEVELOPING A BAND OF
LIGHT SNOW IN TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS
BASICALLY DRY DURING THIS TIME...AND SHOWS A POTENTIALLY WARMER
SOLUTION UNDER HIGHER HEIGHTS IN THE PLAINS. WILL MAINTAIN OUR
CURRENT SMALL SNOW CHANCES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

IT APPEARED LIGHT FOG...MVFR CATEGORY...WAS LESS LIKELY THE REST
OF TONIGHT SO IT WAS NOT INCLUDED IN 06Z TAFS. LOW CLOUDS STILL
SEEMED LIKELY TO INCREASE SOUTH OR SE OF THE REGION FRIDAY AFTN
AND MOVE ACROSS TAF SITES THEN THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. SOME LIGHT
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR TOWARD 22/06Z...BUT CHANCES
SEEMED A LITTLE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE JUST YET. CIGS/VSBYS WERE KEPT
IN MVFR CATEGORY WITH THIS INCREASE IN THE LOWER CLOUDS LATE
FRIDAY...BUT THERE IS SOME CHANCE THEY COULD GO LOWER WHICH COULD
BE ADDRESSED IN LATER FORECASTS.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...CHERMOK


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