000
FXUS63 KOAX 161742
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1242 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THIS MORNING PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE
IN NATURE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVES MOVING THRU. HOWEVER...PCPN CHANCES THRU THE NEAR TERM
PDS LOOK RATHER SMALL WITH FOCUS MORE OR LESS FOUND NORTH AND SOUTH
OF THE CWA.

FIRST ROUND COMES THIS AFTN OVER THE NRN CWA IN RELATION TO A SPUNKY
LITTLE VORT MAX CROSSING THE NRN PLAINS. STOUT LYR DIFFERENTIAL
DIVG/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL AID IN SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT...BUT
FORCING WILL BE MOST PREVALENT OVER THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST.
DYNAMIC FORCING THOUGH WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY SMALL POPS
NORTH.

MEANWHILE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER SD THIS MORNING WILL DEEPEN THRU
THE DAY AS IT MIGRATES EWD TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION AND
DRAGS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. GFSLAMP METEOGRAMS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BNDRY MOVING
THRU THE OMA METRO DURING THE LATE AFTN HRS. BRUNT OF STRONG CAA
ARRIVES ON THURSDAY WITH A NOTICEABLE DROP IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S.

THUR NIGHT/FRI...PCPN WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AND FOCUSED OVER THE
NRN CWA WHERE MODERATE QG FORCING IS EXPECTED TO SET UP. MAY EVEN
SEE MIX OF RA/SN PER BUFKIT. GIVEN WEAK MOISTURE...SMALL POPS
STILL BEST FIT FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN MOVING A TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THE MODELS DIVERGE TO SOME
DEGREE AS TO HOW QUICKLY TO MOVE THE TROUGH OUT OF THE AREA WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AN UPSTREAM KICKER. THE 00Z ECMWF IS HOLDING
ONTO THIS TROUGH INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE SLOWEST SOLUTION.
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL BE ADVANCING NORTHWARD ON
SATURDAY. MOST OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY BUT A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY AFTERNOON AND THIS COULD BE THE
IMPETUS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON.
AS LARGER-SCALE FORCING INCREASES ON SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH
STRONGER LOW LEVEL WARM-AIR ADVECTION WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN
THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE PRECIP...AND LIKELY POPS APPEAR WARRANTED AT
THIS TIME. THE 00Z GFS/GEM WOULD THEN SHIFT THIS FORCING/PRECIP
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF WOULD CONTINUE
SOME THREAT INTO MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF
ISN`T OUT OF THE QUESTION...GIVEN THE LIMITED SUPPORT WILL CONT WITH
A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS ON SATURDAY AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT WITH THE PRECIP AND CAA ON SUNDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE 60S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON
THE INCREASE FOR MON/TUE AS A WESTERN US RIDGE DEVELOPS EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL US.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE...BUT SHORT-TERM MODELS ARE
TRENDING A LITTLE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH CEILINGS BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO MVFR CEILING AT
KOFK...AND SCATTERED MENTION AT KOMA/KLNK...THROUGH THE EVENING.
HAVE KEPT SCATTERED MENTION UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK...AS MODELS HOLD
ON TO MOISTURE AROUND 1500-2500FT THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANY RESIDUAL
MOISTURE SHOULD CLEAR AWAY THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN
VERY GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY...WITH
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND NOT QUITE AS GUSTY BEHIND. HAVE
SPEEDS SLACKENING TO AROUND 12-15KT AT ALL SITES LATER THIS
EVENING...THEN DECREASING FURTHER IN THE MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ045-051>053-
     065>068-078-088>093.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ045-052-053-067-
     068-090>093.

IA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ055-056-069-079-
     080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...MAYES