000
FXUS63 KOAX 141627 AAA
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1127 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.UPDATE...

RAISED MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 101 AT SOME LOCATIONS.
KOFK WAS ALREADY AT 98 AS OF 11 AM. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW
VERY HIGH BASED -TSRA NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH THE HIGH BASED
CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT. AT THIS POINT THOUGHT COVERAGE FOR MEASUREABLE PCPN WAS
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN AFTERNOON PERIOD FOR THE ZFP AT THIS POINT.

MILLER

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK.

STILL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND
THEN NORTH AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.

MILLER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013/

DISCUSSION...

RECORD TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY AND FIRE WX ARE THE MAIN NEAR TERM
CONCERNS.

STRONG 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY. 00Z ANALYSIS SHOWED
+18C AT 850 MB AND PROGGED 12Z 850 MB TEMP IS AROUND +23. EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 60S AT SOME LOCATIONS IN
NEBRASKA SO IT WILL BE A QUICK WARM UP INTO THE MID 90S BY THIS
AFTERNOON. FULL MIXING POTENTIAL WILL BE REALIZED WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS. THIS ALSO WILL MIX SURFACE DEWPOINTS OUT AND ONCE AGAIN HAVE
GONE MUCH BELOW GUIDANCE WITH DEWPOINTS AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
ENCOUNTER PROBLEMS OF BEING OVERLY MOIST. WILL HOIST A RED FLAG
WARNING IN OUR SOUTHERN 3/4 OF CWA WHERE RH...FIRE WX FUELS...AND
WINDS WILL LIKELY MEET CRITERIA. HAVE LEFT OUT THE NORTHERN 1/4 BECAUSE
OF LACK OF STRONG ENOUGH WINDS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS NEAR A
SURFACE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DROP SOUTH
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ATMOSPHERE LOOKS QUITE
CAPPED...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A SMALL CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION NEAR THE BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE.

THE BOUNDARY HANGS UP ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER WEDNESDAY AND
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION INTO THURSDAY IN OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ARE LIKELY NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT IN THE 80S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FEATURE. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS
DEVELOP CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SPREAD IT EAST
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

A LARGER TROUGH AXIS WILL ROUND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON SATURDAY
SENDING LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STRONG AND
MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED
PCPN CHANCES INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO
THE AREA AND CONTINUED SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION.

KERN

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$