Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 252027
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
327 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

ATMOSPHERE IS RELOADING TODAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON
TUESDAY. SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A DEEPENING
UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN...WITH UP TO 150M HEIGHT FALLS AT
500MB CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NV.  UPPER LOW REMNANT ALSO WAS
EJECTING ACROSS THE PLAINS...CENTERED IN MN.  AN 850MB LOW WAS
CENTERED IN THE SD/ND/MN BORDER AREA....WITH TROUGH AXIS TRAILING
THROUGH CENTRAL NEB/CENTRAL KS TOWARD SECONDARY LOW IN THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES/WESTERN OK.  DEWPOINTS OF 8C+ HAD ADVANCED INTO
KS/MO...WITH A NARROW AXIS OF 12C+ DEWPOINTS NEAR THE KS-OK BORDER
INTO SOUTHWEST MO.  SURFACE LOW AT 19Z WAS CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST
MN/SOUTHWEST WI...WITH TROUGH AXIS TRAILING THROUGH IA/EASTERN NEB.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TUESDAY...AND NOT
OVERLOOKING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY.  FOR TONIGHT...HAVE
BACKED OFF ON POPS IN THE CWA...AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FOCUS FURTHER SOUTH IN EASTERN
KS/WESTERN MO.  HAVE BROUGHT SLIGHT CHANCE JUST OVER THE KS-NEB
BORDER BETWEEN 12-15Z...EXPANDING TOWARD CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST NEB BY
18Z.  HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...THINKING COVERAGE
WILL NOT BE WELL ESTABLISHED BY 18Z AS EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS FEED
DRIER AIR INTO IA/EASTERN NEB.  AS SURFACE LOW GETS TOGETHER IN
WESTERN KS/SOUTHWEST NEB...WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO SOUTHEAST
NEB...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPPING BEING ERODED BY AROUND 21-
23Z.  GIVEN LARGE HODOGRAPHS IN THE WARM SECTOR AND NEAR THE WARM
FRONT...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THAT AREA WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR ROTATION...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT THREAT FOR HAIL WITH ANY STORMS IN THAT
AREA...AS WELL.  STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO MORE OF A HAIL/WIND
THREAT INTO THE NIGHT AS THEY GROW UPSCALE...AS WELL AS THENON-
NEGLIGIBLE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IN THIS SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM.

BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE AROUND CENTRAL NEB...WITH
SURFACE WARM SECTOR STILL IN EASTERN NEB.  WARM SECTOR MAY BE
MUDDIED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION...BUT GIVEN STRONG DYNAMICS AHEAD OF A LOW BECOMING
VERTICALLY STACKED IN CENTRAL NEB ON WEDNESDAY...WARM SECTOR SHOULD
CLEAR OUT AND DESTABILIZE AGAIN.  AGAIN...SHOULD SEE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE...THOUGH
PERHAPS LESS VOLATILE THAN ON TUESDAY AND WITH MORE CONTINGENCY
BASED ON EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.  PERSISTENT
RAIN NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW MAY ADD TO SOME OF THE CONTINUED
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS WELL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SLOW-
MOVING NATURE OF PATTERN.  DRY SLOT MAY WORK ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL TO
SOUTHEAST NEB ON WEDNESDAY  NIGHT...WITH HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND LIFT AWAY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
SHOWERS DECREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  WITH THERMAL
GRADIENT NUDGED SOUTH...TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY
COOL...ESPECIALLY AROUND NORTHEAST NEB WHERE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
LINGER LONGEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

AFTER ONLY A BRIEF RESPITE...THE NEXT UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE WEST
LATE THIS WEEK....EJECTING TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS BY SATURDAY.
CURRENT PROGS KEEP EASTERN NEB/WESTERN IA ON THE COOL NORTHERN SIDE
OF THE LOW...WITH LESS CONVECTIVE RISK BUT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL
PERIODS OF PROLONGED RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE AT LEAST
MODERATE IN INTENSITY.  GIVEN PERSISTENCE OF RAIN AND CLOUDS ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW...NUDGED MAX TEMPS DOWNWARD A BIT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z AS MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. LOWERING CIGS AND A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD NORTH OF THE FRONT AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT
KLNK AND KOMA LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...LIKELY BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...DERGAN



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