Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 250516

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1216 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Friday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Latest water vapor imagery and RAP 500mb analysis show weak
shortwave ridging overhead this afternoon behind a departing complex
now over Missouri. Southwesterly flow continues with a few
embedded weak shortwaves of interest. The first is over northeast
Colorado with another showing up across western Kansas where a few
lightning strikes have been noted.

Afternoon surface analysis shows area of low pressure over southeast
Colorado with very little in the way pressure differences across all
of Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Boundary layer moisture remains in
place with surface dewpoints fluctuating this afternoon and falling
slightly into the upper 50s across our western counties where
surface winds turned more southwesterly along a weak boundary.

Forecaster uncertainty remains high as a few waves of convection are
forecast to drift through the area as early as this evening. With
the lack of a strong forcing mechanism late this afternoon into this
evening, we continue to question some of the CAM solutions on
developing storms over the area before dark. It seems more likely
that storms that initiate across western Nebraska and parts of
Kansas would spread east/northeast across the forecast area
overnight tonight and continue into Wednesday morning. This being
said, with a primed and unstable airmass in place, cannot rule
anything out and so will continue monitor any convective
developments closely. Thunderstorms that roll through overnight
should continue into Wednesday morning and exit by afternoon.

The cycle continues as several embedded shortwaves drive through
southwesterly flow aloft and interact with several boundaries left
over from previous convection. A stronger synoptic front will
extend northeast from lee cyclone over western Kansas into
southeast Nebraska on Thursday which will be the focus for strong
thunderstorms Thursday and again on Friday. As has been the case
in the past couple days, high moisture content could lead to very
heavy rain in the stronger convection.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

By Friday night, a shortwave trough is forecast to extend across
western Nebraska and Kansas and slide northeast into the Missouri
River Valley by 00Z Sunday. Lee surface cyclone will also slide
east/northeast across Kansas Friday through Saturday with an
eastward extending warm front that will continue to be the
primary focus for thunderstorm development.

Shortwave ridging is expected over the area by mid day Sunday with
persistent southwesterly upper level flow into next week. Sunday
looks like our best shot at a dry forecast period with pops entering
into the picture again Sunday night as a series of shortwaves roll
northeast through the region.


.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS for KOMA...KLNK...KOFK through 06Z Thursday)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

A loosely organized bowing complex of storms is spreading
northeast across portions of southeast Nebraska, potentially
impacting KLNK within the next hour. A second linear MCS over
central Nebraska will reach KOFK about 09z, KLNK around 10z and
KOMA by about 11z. Have included a mention of MVFR ceilings and
visibilities with the passage of these storms. In the wake of the
storms, MVFR ceilings could linger into Wednesday afternoon before
becoming VFR.


.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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