Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 190030
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
730 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WITH COLD FRONT SATURDAY.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN NORTHEAST KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH
OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
RESULT THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA AND SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE EVEN MORE. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA AS LOW LEVEL JET RIDES OVER WARM FRONT.

WITH WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDING
OVERHEAD...WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
80S.

RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS MID
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TRAILING COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY SATURDAY
MORNING...THE PROGRESS SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING.
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT. MUCH
OF THE AREA COULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA SEEING BEST CHANCES IN THE
AFTERNOON. AM NOT EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO LINGER INTO THE
EVENING WITH COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH INTO KANSAS BY THEN.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO DROP THROUGH THE PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING COOLER WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S SATURDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY LOW TO MID 70S SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THEN A
SLOW-MOVING MID LEVEL WAVE IS FORECAST BY GFS/ECMWF TO WANDER INTO
THE PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY...THEN
MORE CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BETWEEN 70 AND 75 FOR
HIGHS AND 50S FOR LOWS. WHILE WIDESPREAD RAIN/THUNDER IS NOT
EXPECTED EACH DAY...GIVEN MOISTURE PROFILES AND WEAKNESS IN MID
LEVEL FLOW...WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CHANCE FOR OFF-AND-ON
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 12KT DURING THE EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
NEAR 15KT OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LOW CLOUDS
IN NORTHEAST KANSAS WILL SPREAD NORTH AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY...AND WILL RESULT IN MVFR CIGS AT ALL EASTERN NEBRASKA
TAF SITES. EXPECT CIGS NEAR FL015 BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. AFTER
15Z...CLOUDS WILL SCATTER AND LIFT TO FL040 WITH SOUTH WINDS
INCREASING INTO THE 15 TO 25KT RANGE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NWS
LONG TERM...NWS
AVIATION...DERGAN



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