Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 280550
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1150 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES TOWARD
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO WYOMING BY
DAYBREAK. SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
MIXING IS EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MOS GUIDANCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM
DIFFERS BY 21 DEGREES AT OMAHA TOMORROW. THE NAM BRINGS IN A SLUG OF
LOW CLOUDS TOMORROW WHICH LOOKS SUSPECT AND THUS HAVE DISCOUNTED.
WE WILL WARM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR RECORDS WEDNESDAY.

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST JUST BEHIND THIS FIRST
WAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. SOME SPRINKLES/FLURRIES
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BUT THIS
SHOULD BE A QUICK SHOT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SHEARING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE EAST
AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST INTO FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL DIG IN BEHIND THE LEAD SHORTWAVE INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE INCREASED POPS INITIALLY WITH THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM SATURDAY...THEN IN OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM. THIS COULD BEGIN AS SNOW EVENT IN OUR SOUTH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A RA/SN EVENT DURING THE DAY. ONCE
THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DROPS DOWN...WE WILL TRANSITION OVER TO
ALL SNOW INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NAM/GFS TRY
TO EXPAND THE MVFR CIGS SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THE RAP
KEEPS THEM NORTH OF SUX.  FOR THIS FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE RAP
WITH THE LOW CLOUDS REMAINING NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. THE LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASES ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER AND THIS WILL KEEP
WINDS UP AROUND 10-12KTS AT KOMA. SOUTHEAST FLOW 6-12KTS WILL
BECOME SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE WINDSHIFT. THE WINDSHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST ARRIVES AT KOFK AROUND 17Z WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
STRENGTHENING TO 15 TO 30KT WITH GUSTS 30-40KTS THEREAFTER. THESE
STRONGER WINDS WILL WORK INTO KOMA AND KLNK AREAS TOWARD 00Z.
CLOUDS DO INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AND MVFR CONDITIONS MAY TRY TO
WORK IN TOWARD KOMA AROUND 03Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY



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