Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 192000
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
300 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING PRECIP
CHANCES WITH IT. FRONT THEN MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY WITH PRECIP ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 MOVING OUT BY SATURDAY
EVENING. BEST CHANCES FOR LIKELY PRECIP APPEAR TO BE TONIGHT
ALONG/NORTH OF I80. PRECIP AMOUNTS DON`T LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH
AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.

A SECONDARY REINFORCING COOL FRONT ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
REALLY NO MOISTURE WITH IT...BUT JUST A RETURN TO COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW...BUT RETURN TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE LOW THAT`S CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE WEST COAST NOW WILL EVENTUALLY CROSS THE ROCKIES.
AFOREMENTIONED RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TAP INTO FAIRLY MOIST
AREA ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ADVECT THAT NORTHWARD.
PRECIP CHANCE INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT...THEN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THIS UPPER
SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. BULK OF MOISTURE PUSHES
EAST BY THURSDAY...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD REMAIN...AND BY THEN
MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ENOUGH TO HAVE OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE BY NEXT FRIDAY TO GO DRY UNTIL BETTER CONTINUITY
DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOOK FOR VFR
CONDITIONS AND SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT 15
TO 20KTS SUSTAINED AND GUSTS 25 TO 30KTS. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAY
BE NEAR KOFK BY 02-04Z...AND INCLUDED A PROB30 FOR TSRA AT THE
TAF SITES FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE FRONT. THE FRONT DOES
SLOW DOWN...HOWEVER THE FORCING WEAKENS...SO DO NOT HAVE A MENTION
AFTER 11Z AT KLNK/KOMA.  COVERAGE AND TIMING WILL LIKELY NEED
ADJUSTING DEPENDING ON HOW IT EVOLVES. THE SURFACE WINDS LIGHTEN
AS THE WIND SHIFT APPROACHES THEN EVENTUALLY TURNS TO THE NW
6-12KTS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY


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