Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 240947
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
347 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

LIGHT PCPN WILL CONTINUE TO END EARLY THIS MORNING IN OUR FAR
EASTERN CWA AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY REGION. MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR TODAY IS THE CLOUD
FORECAST. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTREMELY SLOW MOVING
CLEARING LINE FAR TO OUR WEST ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A THICK CLOUD COVER IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME THINNING BY LATE AFTERNOON.
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WILL NOT LIKELY SEE SUN
TODAY BUT THAT WILL CHANGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. SKIES SHOULD SCATTER
OUT IN ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

UPPER RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY WHILE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. AHEAD OF THIS... WAA WILL BE UNDERWAY
OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION WITH LEE SIDE SFC LOW OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR MUCH OF CHRISTMAS DAY
UNTIL FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTH INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN CWA BY 00Z
FRIDAY. CHRISTMAS DAY HIGHS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
A LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY 00Z FR. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE LARGE SCALE
LIFT FOR PCPN OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WE MAY
SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER OUR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AS
EARLY AS 06Z FRIDAY AND WE ALREADY HAD POPS TO COVER THIS. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD SENDING A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR PCPN TO SPREAD EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE 00Z
OPERATIONAL GFS SEEMS TO BE A BIT TOO FAST AND AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
SYSTEM AND HAVE NOT FOLLOWED. PCPN TYPE LOOKS TO BE PRIMARILY
RAIN AS THE THE COLD AIR DROPS DOWN JUST AT THE ONSET OF PCPN. WE
COULD HAVE A BIT OF A MIX INITIALLY FOR A FEW HOURS BASED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS BUT WILL FINE TUNE DETAILS AS WE GET CLOSER TO
FRIDAY. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT WITH MAYBE AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

A SECONDARY WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN STREAM ON SATURDAY.
THIS COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO THE AREA TO PRODUCE SOME
LIGHT SNOW. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS LITTLE CLIPPER AS PER
THE 00Z ECMWF.

ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD KEEP THINGS
FAIRLY QUIET. ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND BECOMES VERY BROAD AS IT APPROACHES THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE GIVES
THE AREA ANOTHER SHOT AT SNOW ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
PROGRESSIVELY BECOME COLDER THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH ARCTIC FRONT
PASSAGE. THE SURGE CONTINUES AND SEEMS TO PEAK ON WEDNESDAY WITH A
BULLSEYE OF -24 TO -26C 850MB TEMPS FORECAST FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON AT
EASTERN AFTERNOON TAF SITES BEFORE WESTERLY WINDS BEGIN TO DRY LOW
LEVELS FROM WEST TO EAST. KLNK AND KOMA COULD SEE A BRIEF IFR
CIG/VSBY THROUGH ABOUT 10Z WHEN RAIN OR SNOW MOVES OVER THOSE
SITES. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EAST OF ALL TAF SITES BEFORE 12Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...DERGAN



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