


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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818 FXUS63 KOAX 281710 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1210 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A 30-40% chance of storms exists primarily over northeast Nebraska after 7 pm. Some storms may be strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds. - Showers and storms linger Sunday morning, with redevelopment likely (50-70% chance) in the afternoon and evening hours. Once again, a few storms could be strong to severe, and heavy rainfall may also occur. - Dry conditions expected for Monday. 20-40% PoPs return late Tuesday into Wednesday and again Thursday into Friday. Temperatures cool slightly Monday before warming to the low to mid 90s by the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 342 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 .SHORT TERM.../Today through Sunday Night/ Decaying MCS continues to progress just northeast of the forecast area early this morning, with GOES-19 satellite imagery showing only remnant clouds from the feature across northeast Nebraska and mostly clear skies elsewhere. 8z RAP objective analysis shows the 500 mb shortwave which provided some of the forcing for the aforementioned convective complex skirting across the eastern Dakotas, Nebraska, western Minnesota, and Iowa, while the next approaching shortwave is already developing out over Wyoming. Meanwhile at the sfc, a 1002 mb low is observed across eastern Wyoming, southwestern South Dakota, and the Nebraska Panhandle. 8z METARs show temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s across most of the forecast area. Quiet conditions are expected for at least the morning and early afternoon today with mostly sunny skies. Highs today will reach the low to mid 90s areawide, and with dew point temperatures in the upper 60s to near 70F, may see a few areas have heat indices reach the upper 90s to near 100F for a few hours in the afternoon. Winds will be breezy today from the south, owing to a tightening pressure gradient from the sfc low feature. With the sfc low and mid level wave moving to the northeast into central South Dakota throughout the day today, a cold front will progress to the east into central Nebraska. Ahead of the frontal boundary, will see moisture and 2,000 to 3,000 J/kg of MLCAPE pool within the warm sector of the low. BUFKIT soundings show much of this instability being capped by a warm layer aloft, however. Shear remains pretty weak within the column, around 20 to 25 kts. With the front and shortwave providing some weak lift, could see some scattered showers and storms along the front, mainly after 23z today. CAM solutions remain pretty widespread for this forecast package. The NAM 4km Nest and NSSL WRF show convection firing along the sfc boundary around 23z over north central Nebraska, eventually congealing into an MCS and spreading into portions of northeast Nebraska before taking a turn south and affecting far western portions of our forecast area into the early morning hours Sunday. Meanwhile, the HRRR keeps the vast majority of our forecast area dry until about 2 or 3z when convection fires along the boundary, entering far northwestern portions of the forecast area but dissipating into showers early Sunday morning. And finally, the HiRes FV3 and ARW indicate dry conditions across the entirety of the CWA. Given the wide range in solutions, have kept PoPs at 30 to 40% this evening primarily across northeast Nebraska with 15-20% PoPs near our shared border with the Hastings forecast office. Some of the storms may become strong to severe, with large hail and damaging wind gusts the main threats. This has prompted the SPC to issue a Slight Risk of severe weather for portions of northeast Nebraska. Showers and storms will linger across the forecast area Sunday morning as the front pushes farther east southeast toward the Missouri River valley. Of interest is how the HRRR picks up on a subtle little line of convection Sunday morning over far eastern Nebraska into western Iowa, most likely forced by the nose of a low level jet. Redevelopment of storms is anticipated again along the front in the afternoon and evening hours, some of which could again become strong to severe. A Marginal Risk of severe weather exists across a vast portion of Nebraska and western Iowa for Sunday. Model soundings show an impressive amount of energy available, but lingering clouds from previous convection could hamper how much of this will be available for convection to use. The best shear also appears to be offset from where the best instability will be. CAM guidance again fires convection along the front during the afternoon, but in varying locations. Have kept 50 to 70% PoPs generally after 18z along the frontal boundary area. Storms on Sunday may produce efficient rainfall, given the favorable warm cloud depths and PWATs in the column being around 1.75 inches or greater at times. As a result, a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall exists across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. Highs Sunday will largely be a function of cloud cover and the boundary location, with areas behind the front (primarily northeast Nebraska) seeing highs in the mid 80s, while elsewhere will see highs reach the low to mid 90s. Lows Sunday night will be in the low to mid 60s areawide. .LONG TERM.../Monday through Friday/ PoPs linger early Monday morning before clearing out later in the day as the sfc front pushes east into eastern Iowa. Aloft, may see a shortwave clip the forecast area, but current thinking is that we will remain dry given a sfc high moves over most of the Northern Plains region. 500 mb ridging over the southern US will hold for a vast portion of the long term forecast period with a trof out over the California/western CONUS area. Shortwaves will ride the ridge, the first of which is late Tuesday into Wednesday, resulting in the NBM bringing back 20 to 40% PoP chances for those respective days. By Thursday into Friday, another wave approaches the forecast area resulting in widespread 20 to 40% PoPs. Machine learning guidance shows low end severe probs (<5%) with this activity at this time. Highs Monday will be slightly cooler behind the front, reaching the mid to upper 80s. A subtle warming trend though is observed throughout the week with highs by Friday reaching the low to mid 90s areawide. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1206 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Winds are on the increase this afternoon with gusts of 20 kts or more becoming more widespread, with the strongest gust potential of 25 kts being in the KOFK vicinity. Largely southerly winds should carry us through the forecast period alongside VFR conditions, with the main thing we`re tacking being potentially strong west-northwesterly winds that may move through KOFK and points north associated with a strong storm system passing to the north from 10-12z tomorrow. Gusts near KOFK could exceed 35 kts despite little to no precipitation. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Castillo AVIATION...Petersen