Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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162
FXUS63 KOAX 270444
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1144 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER LOW CENTERED ON
THE WY/CO BORDER...WITH ELONGATED 500MB HEIGHT FALLS THROUGH CO/NM.
UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK HAD ROUNDED THE BASE OF THE LOW AND ALSO HAD
WEAKENED...WITH SPEEDS UP TO 95KT IN AZ/NM.  850MB LOW WAS CENTERED
IN EASTERN CO...WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING ALONG THE KS-NEB BORDER
AND DRYLINE FROM NORTH CENTRAL KS THROUGH WESTERN OK/CENTRAL TX.
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND WARM FRONT...8C+ MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDED
ACROSS EASTERN NEB/CENTRAL-EASTERN KS/OK...WITH UP TO 45KT
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET.  700-500MB LAPSE RATES OF 20C+ EXTENDED
THROUGH KS/OK INTO CENTRAL NEB AND CENTRAL MO...WITH LOWER LAPSE
RATES IN EASTERN NEB/EASTERN KS IN AREA AFFECTED BY MORNING
CONVECTION.  AT 18Z...SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED IN CENTRAL NEB...WITH
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM N OF KSLN TO NEAR KEMP...AND LIKELY
SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT EVIDENT FROM NEAR KCNK TO NEAR KMYZ TO NORTH OF
KFNB TO NEAR KICL.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS
EVENING...AND AGAIN TOMORROW.  MORNING CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST
NEB/EASTERN KS/WESTERN MO THREW AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DOWN THAT
SUPPRESSED THE WARM SECTOR SOUTHWARD INTO KS.  SOME RECOVERY HAS
OCCURRED THROUGH THE DAY...WITH GHOST OF A SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT INTO
SOUTHEAST NEB...THOUGH RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES CAP IS STILL IN PLACE
AND UNCAPPED WARM SECTOR IS STILL IN CENTRAL KS.  WITH A COUPLE MORE
HOURS OF HEATING AND RECOVERY...IT REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR THAT WARM
SECTOR TO RECOVER IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN NEB...ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT...WHICH WOULD RAISE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION AND ALL ATTENDANT THREATS.  NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT...POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR HAILERS THROUGH THE
EVENING AS CONVECTION GETS GOING.  THREAT FOR TORNADOES IS
CONDITIONAL ON DESTABILIZATION...BUT HIGH ENOUGH TO BE INCLUDED IN A
TORNADO WATCH FOR A FEW COUNTIES IN SOUTHEASTERN NEB.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GROW UPSCALE THIS EVENING...AND WITH
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN NO HURRY TO EXIT...MAY REGENERATE AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT IN SOME LOCATIONS.  HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A
THREAT TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO ROTATE INTO CENTRAL NEB ON
WEDNESDAY...DRAWING A WARM SECTOR INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IA
IN THE AFTERNOON.  THOUGH THREATS ARE LOWER ON WEDNESDAY...RISK OF
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION DOES EXIST...WITH THREATS FOR
HAIL...WIND...AND MAYBE EVEN A TORNADO OR TWO.  THREAT IS
CONDITIONAL ON GETTING SOME DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAY IN BREAKS
BETWEEN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.  RISK OF STORMS SHOULD WANE EARLIER IN
THE EVENING AS COOLER AIR DRAWS DOWN INTO EASTERN NEB/WESTERN IA
BEHIND THE EXITING LOW...BUT CHANCE OF AT LEAST SHOWERS SHOULD
LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY.

A SHORT BREAK IN THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FINALLY GIVES US A
BREATHER ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS NEXT UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE WESTERN
US...BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER RETURN
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.  HAVE LOWERED HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY UNDER GENERALLY CLOUDY AND MURKY PATTERN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT
UPPER LOW SLIDES TOWARD THE PLAINS...WITH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
RAIN BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE
EASTERN NEB/WESTERN IA WILL MOSTLY BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE
SURFACE LOW...WITH LOW RISK FOR THUNDER BUT CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN. LOW WEAKENS AND PULLS AWAY AROUND MONDAY...WITH LITTLE OR NO
CHANCE OF RAIN BY MONDAY/TUESDAY.  TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE COOLER
SIDE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

PRETTY MESSY FORECAST AS LOW PRESSURE COMPLEX MOVES SLOWLY E INTO
THE AREA. VARIABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF
THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR CIGS AND VSBY SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...FOBERT



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