Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 251954
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
254 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THE SURFACE LOW
WAS ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER REGION BETWEEN KONL AND KANW...WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EAST NORTHEAST...AND COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTH. SCATTERED CONVECTION HAD DEVELOPED NEAR THE LOW CENTER AND
ALONG THE TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. AS THE LOW MOVES ALONG THE SD
BORDER THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...EXPECT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT TO
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. INSTABILITY IS
NOW APPROACHING 2000 J/KG OF CAPE...HOWEVER WIND SHEAR WILL BE
MARGINAL AT 25 TO 35 KNOTS. THERE ALSO IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS
TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS EVENING AS
ENERGY MOVES UP FROM CENTRAL KANSAS. SLIGHT RISK SEEMS ON TARGET AS
A PLUME OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MOVES OVER THE REGION.
FAVORED WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS WOULD ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL. LOW
LEVEL SHEAR IS EXTREMELY WEAK...BUT DOES INCREASE DURING THE EVENING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...BUT OVERALL TORNADO
THREAT SEEMS LOW. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN 50 TO 70 PERCENT POPS
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SEVERE RISK THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.


.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

GOOD MODELS CONSENSUS THAT LARGE SCALE FLOW THIS WEEK WILL AMPLIFY
OVER THE WRN CONUS WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF
THE SWRN STATES AND INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS.

ON TUESDAY...LINGERING PCPN ACTIVITY OVER THE ERN CWA WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTN HOURS. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. FOR WEDNESDAY...UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING
INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL FINALLY BRING PLEASANT CONDITIONS BACK
THE REGION WITH PARTLY  CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS PUSHING INTO THE UPPER
70S.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

SEE LITTLE REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE GOING FCST AS THE MAIN
FEATURES OF INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED PDS IS RELATIVELY SLOW UPPER
LVL LONGWAVE TROF CROSSING THE CNTRL CONUS ALONG WITH ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT DRIVING DEEP TO THE SOUTH. GIVEN CONFIDENCE IS LOW PINNING
DOWN ANY MEANINGFUL POP DETAILS...OPT TO JUST MAINTAIN POPS THRU THE
MAJORITY OF THIS WEEK.

REGARDING TEMPS...HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID
70S. RATHER CHILLY CONDITIONS ON TAP THEN NEXT WEEKEND WITH WELL
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
12 KNOTS INITIALLY...COULD SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 18 KNOTS
THROUGH 00Z. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL 23Z AT
KOFK...AND NOT UNTIL 02-03Z AT KLNK/KOMA. WILL HAVE ABOUT A 4-5
HOUR WINDOW OF THUNDERSTORM OPPORTUNITY...THEN A SHOWER CHANCE
AFTER THAT.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...DEWALD


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