Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 190914
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
314 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(today through Saturday)
Issued at 310 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

Low clouds working slowly north at 08Z from western and central
Kansas into central Nebraska in advance of 850mb trough over
western Nebraska. 500 mb closed low was also in the area centered
over south central Nebraska.

Cloudy skies are expected to gradually overspread the forecast
area today as upper low moves toward northeast Kansas with short
range models showing some slight deepening during this time.
Temperatures remain above freezing across the area early this
morning and are expected to climb into the 40s by afternoon. Will
only mention patchy fog for a time this morning and mainly in
northeast Nebraska where latest short range models spread the
stratus. Temperatures will likely have a more limited diurnal
range in areas where clouds arrive first this morning. Have also
removed mention of drizzle for today as low level moisture comes
in slower than indicated by previous days models.

Periods of drizzle and fog become more likely tonight into Friday as
the upper system works north across the area with lingering low
level moisture in advance of the next wave moving into the area on
Friday. With better moisture and forcing associated with this
second system rain chances increase Friday night then decrease
from south to north on Saturday as the system lifts into the upper
midwest. Temperatures again are expected to remain above freezing
Friday night keeping precipitation all liquid.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

Remainder of the weekend into early next week looks dry with
temperatures remaining above seasonal normals. Change comes into
the picture by Tuesday however as another strong upper level
system comes out of the central Rockies and onto the plains.
This system will have colder air available with wintry conditions
expected to return to the region on Tuesday and Wednesday. There
will be a chance of snow for northeast Nebraska on Tuesday with
rain changing to snow in southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa by
Tuesday afternoon or evening extending into Tuesday night. Snow
diminishes on Wednesday as the primary system moves off to the
northeast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1130 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

Variable conditions are expected at the TAF sites through the next
24 hours beginning with VFR at all 3 sites. Conditions are
expected to deteriorate through the early morning hours. Will need
to watch the area of dense fog across south central Iowa as it
spreads north/northwest. Model guidance does keep this out of KOMA
but not sure if that will be the case. Otherwise, expansive mid
deck continues to stream north out of Kansas. MVFR to IFR
conditions are expected by sunrise and will continue into the
afternoon and evening. Will keep any pcpn mention out of the TAFs
at this point with better chances after this TAF cycle.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fobert
LONG TERM...Fobert
AVIATION...Kern


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