Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 231109
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
509 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

ONGOING PCPN AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERN.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA WITH A LARGE PCPN BAND
PIVOTING AROUND THE TOP AND BACK SIDE OF THE LOW IN DEFORMATION
ZONE. PCPN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES SLOWLY DROP A COUPLE DEGREES.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH SOME FLUCTUATION
THROUGH THE DAY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED IN THE
1-2 INCH RANGE WITH SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. A RA/SN MIX IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST LONGER ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA WHICH SHOULD LIMIT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INITIALLY.
AREA WEB CAMS ALREADY SHOW SOME ACCUMULATION ON ROADS AND GRASSY
AREAS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND GUST TO NEAR 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. DUE TO WET NATURE
OF SNOW...ONLY EXPECT REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW.

SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES EAST BUT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AND INTO CHRISTMAS
DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS GIVES US
HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ROUNDING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH LEE SIDE CYCLONE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO.
A LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT NORTHEAST AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE FRIDAY. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT ON MOVING THE SFC LOW NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE CWA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF
THE PCPN ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN CWA. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME SMALL
POPS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA FOR CONTINUITY BUT FEEL THESE MAY
ELIMINATED IF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE NORTH. IN ANY
CASE...OUR STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE OVER
FOR THE TIME BEING AS COLD CANADIAN AIR SPILLS SOUTH OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A BROAD TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION. THIS
WOULD PUT HIGHS IN THE TEENS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 506 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

ALL SNOW EXPECTED AT KOFK...BUT TAPERING OFF BY 1820Z. IFR AND
POSSIBLY LIFR CONDITIONS AT THAT LOCATION. RAIN/SNOW MIX EXPECTED
AT KLNK/KOMA...PROBABLY MORE SNOW THAN RAIN. IFR AT KOMA...MVFR
TO IFR AT KLNK. SNOW MAY END AT KOMA/KLNK BY 23-06Z. NORTHWEST
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD ABOVE 12 KNOTS. COULD ALSO SEE GUSTS
DEVELOP AT KOFK BY 15-16Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...


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