000
FXUS63 KOAX 070521
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1121 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS LOW CLOUD/FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND THEN THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN US FOR TOMORROW/TOMORROW NIGHT.

STRATUS HAS FOR THE MOST PART DISSIPATED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASED THE VERTICAL MIXING.
THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THOUGH AND
SOME MODELS AGAIN HINT AT REDEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME FOG /HRRR-RUC13/. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME MIXING IN THIS
HIGH RH LAYER THROUGH THE EVENING THOUGH...SO IF THE STRATUS DOES
DEVELOP IT MAY BE A BIT LATER IN THE NIGHT. WE REMOVED ANY MENTION
OF DZ AS THE DEPTH OF THE MOIST LAYER APPEARS TO SHALLOW AND LIFT
ABOVE THIS APPEAR TO WEAK TO PRODUCE MUCH OF ANY DZ.

THE WESTERN US UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS HANDLED FAIRLY CONSISTENTLY
AMONG THE MODELS TODAY...AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK EWD OVERNIGHT
AND INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS A
COLD FRONT /CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN ND AS OF 21Z/ WILL PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. THE NAM STILL IS THE
STRONGEST WITH THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE FA
DURING THE DAY ON FRI...BUT WAS GENERALLY DISCOUNTED AS OTHER
MODELS TAKE THE STRONGER FORCING TO THE SOUTH. MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS IS STILL PROGGED TO INCREASE BEHIND THE SURFACE
FRONT BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS LIKELY
RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOP WITHIN THIS ZONE. HAVE
DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP DURING FRI MORNING...BUT
OTHERWISE KEPT POPS NEARLY THE SAME WITH A BAND OF LIKELY POPS
SHIFTING S THROUGH THE FA DURING THE AFTN/EVENING. POINT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS CONT TO INDICATE THAT SOME OF THE
LIGHT RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND/OR CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE
ENDING...BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS WITH
THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT AMOUNTS.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE WESTERN
US RIDGE EXPANDS EWD AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. WE HAVE WARMED HIGHS
FOR SUNDAY GIVEN THE 925 MB TEMPERATURES TO THE 60S ALONG AND WEST
OF THE RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

PERIOD BEGINS WITH SLIGHT UPPER RIDGING BUILDING OVERHEAD. 850MB
TEMPS ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE +10 TO +12C RANGE WITH +14
NOSING INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY MONDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH PROVIDING GOOD MIXING THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH
SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 IN OUR
SOUTHEAST WITH 60S EXPECTED EVERYWHERE ELSE.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS PUSHES A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. 12Z GFS AND 12Z
ECMWF HAVE COME INTO SIMILAR AGREEMENT REGARDING THIS WAVE. HAVE
INCREASED POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. PCPN TYPE WILL BE
COMPLICATED BY WARM SFC TEMPERATURES INITIALLY AND THE STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION. WILL CONTINUE A RAIN/SNOW MIX MENTION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND RAIN MENTION DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. MODEL QPF IS
DROPPING ANYWHERE FROM 0.10 TO 0.30 DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

CHALLENGING FORECAST REMAINS WITH A LOT OF ELEMENTS TO CONSIDER.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT MVFR FOG COULD
PERSIST AT KOMA. A FRONT IS ALSO APPROACHING THE REGION. UNTIL
THE FRONT ARRIVES...THERE WILL BE NON CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IN PLACE WITH WINDS AROUND FL020 AT 45 TO 50 KNOTS. FRONT
ARRIVES AT KOFK BY 11Z...AND 14-15Z AT KLNK/KOMA. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A RAIN/SNOW/SLEET CHANCE AT KOFK 18-23Z...AND A SNOW CHANCE
AT KLNK/KOMA 08/02-06Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...DEWALD