Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 062311
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
511 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

WE ARE STILL MAINLY CONCERNED WITH STRONG WINDS AND AT LEAST THE
POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.

SEVERAL JET SEGMENTS OF OVER 100 KNOTS WERE NOTED ON THE 12Z 300 MB
CHART...BUT THE MAIN ONE OF CONCERN WAS PUNCHING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS WAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
THAT HAD 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS (ESTIMATED) AT UP TO 200 METERS THIS
MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST BRITISH COLUMBIA. RIDGING WAS NOTED AHEAD OF
THIS TROUGH BUILDING INTO OUR AREA. VARIABLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WERE SPILLING DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 3 PM SHOWED WINDS MAINLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LOCALLY...WHICH WITH SUNSHINE HAD HELPED BOOST TEMPS.
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S WERE OCCURRING WHERE THE THICKER SNOWPACK
WAS IN PLACE. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...FALLS CITY HAD REACHED THE
UPPER 40S.

TONIGHT...WINDS SHOULD TURN TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THAT WOULD TEND TO INHIBIT MUCH
FOG FORMATION. THE EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR...BUT
CURRENTLY DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTION
FROM FOG OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY MILD...MOSTLY IN
THE MID AND UPPER 20S.

SUNDAY...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AND WE GET DOWNWARD MOMENTUM
TRANSFER OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY STARTING AT NOON SUNDAY FOR ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THESE STRONG WINDS MAY CREATE SOME BLOWING
SNOW...BUT EXACTLY HOW MUCH THERE WILL BE PRIOR TO THE SNOW
SHOWERS THAT SHOULD MOVE IN BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IS
UNCERTAIN. WARMING TODAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE PCPN MAY BE
ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW...AT LEAST INITIALLY.
ONCE THE SNOW SHOWERS START...THERE THEN MAY BE ENOUGH WHERE WE
MAY NEED TO SWITCH THE HEADLINE TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WE
DECIDED THERE WAS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO WAIT UNTIL LATER FOR A
WINTER PRODUCT HEADLINE.

THE OVERALL PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT LEAST BY SUNDAY
EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW DECENT
LAPSE RATES...ESPECIALLY BELOW 700 MB. PCPN TYPE COULD INITIALLY BE
RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX BUT THAT SHOULD WET BULB/COOL AND TURN TO
LIGHT SNOW FAIRLY FAST. SOUNDINGS EVEN SHOW JUST A BIT OF CAPE. THE
WINDY PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING...
THEN THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE. BY 00Z TUESDAY...
THE AXIS OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SHOULD BE OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN KANSAS. WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL TRY TO
SPREAD EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF PCPN
FOR TUESDAY AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL MONITOR THAT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

HAVE KEPT THIS PERIOD GENERALLY DRY FOR NOW...BUT SOME LIGHT PCPN
DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 500 MB PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF
THIS PERIOD...WITH A RIDGE FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN
ARIZONA UP INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THERE SHOULD BE A TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE PATTERN ALOFT
SHOULD SLOWLY DEAMPLIFY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT WARMING DOES NOT SEEM
GUARANTEED HERE LOCALLY. THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD BE THE COOLEST AND THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN PARTS THE WARMEST.
IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL BUILD IN BY NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT WEAKEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 509 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH BROKEN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 14KT SHOULD BECOME
WEST OR NORTHWEST BY 06Z. THEN AN INCREASE IN WINDS IS FORECAST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS AVERAGING 20 TO 35KT BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>044-050.

IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY FOR IAZ043.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DERGAN


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