Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 232051
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
251 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

COLD FRONT IS BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA.
SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES 500MB TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE ROCKIES/PLAINS...WITH 145KT JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM OR/WA
INTO NV BEHIND THE TROUGH.  850MB COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW IN
SOUTHERN MB/NORTHERN ND/NORTHERN MN THROUGH EASTERN NEB/CENTRAL
KS/WESTERN OK...WITH 4C+ DEWPOINTS IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES.  COLD AIR ADVECTION WAS FILLING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...THOUGH WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW NORMAL AS
FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL AB...COOL-DOWN IS NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS EARLIER
THIS MONTH.  SURFACE LOW AT 20Z WAS CENTERED IN EAST-CENTRAL
OK...WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SECONDARY LOW IN WESTERN ONT
THROUGH EASTERN MN/CENTRAL IA/NORTHWESTERN MO...AND WITH A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIDN THE FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE VARIABLE TEMPERATURES AND INTERMITTENT
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION.  TONIGHT...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE...WITH STRATOCU DECK SLIDING INTO THE NORTHERN CWA.
MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES UNDER THESE CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...WITH UPSTREAM VORT MAX PROVIDING JUST A LITTLE ADDITIONAL
LIFT...BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.  NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO MAKE SOME
RECOVERY ON TUESDAY...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WINDS.

THOUGH THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS REGARDING
STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT...MODELS DO SUGGEST A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OR COMPACT UPPER LOW DESCENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TOWARD THE MIDWEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.  CURRENT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WOULD INDICATE A POTENTIAL MIX OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
NORTHERN CWA ON TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW...BUT
AGAIN...WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS /IF ANY/ AS SOLUTIONS KEEP THE
MORE MODERATE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN PROGGED TO SPILL INTO THE
PLAINS/MIDWEST IN WAKE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS THEN CARRY A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE MID-LEVEL
THERMAL GRADIENT...EXTENDING FROM WESTERN SD INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN
NEB.  CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THIS MATERIALIZING...AND IF
SO...WHERE/WHEN...BUT FOR NOW...HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE NORTHERN CWA.  THANKSGIVING DAY IS LIKELY TO BE ON THE COLD SIDE
IN THE REGION...BUT CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOOK LOW.

WARM AIR ADVECTION IS PROGGED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY...THOUGH BLACK FRIDAY MORNING IS LIKELY TO BE ON THE
COLD SIDE...WITH WARMING ABOVE FREEZING LATER ON FRIDAY.  WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER COLD AIR INTRUSION SOMETIME AROUND THE WEEKEND
IN WAKE OF ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE...AND WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

SFC CDFNT HAS MOVED THROUGH ALL 3 TAF SITES. MID LEVEL BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACRS KOFK AND THIS
MAY CONT FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BEFORE FORCING WEAKENS AND THE
-RA SHOULD END. SOME MVFR CIGS REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT MAY AFFECT
ANY OF THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT GENERALLY
DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN AND VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTN. A SECONDARY CDFNT IS OVER NRN/WRN SD ATTM AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THIS EVENING BRINING MORE SC...LIKELY IN THE MVFR RANGE
FOR OVERNIGHT RISING TO VFR...BUT REMAINING BKN...THROUGH MON
MRNG. PRETTY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD


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