Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 172022
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
322 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Pleasant fall conditions continued today as highs have climbed
into the 70s across the forecast area with a south breeze.
Diffluent westerly flow aloft dominated the Plains, helping to
support the dry conditions, and while there was a weak mid level
trough evident in water vapor imagery dropping across Nebraska
this afternoon, the system was moisture starved and will result in
littler more than a few high clouds. Farther west, a stronger
storm system was over British Columbia, moving quickly east. This
strong trough will approach Lake Superior by Wednesday afternoon,
pushing a cold front into the local area by this time as well.
Temperatures will drop off a few degrees while wind shifts out of
the northwest, but otherwise expect another pleasant fall day on
Wednesday. Surface high pressure behind the weakening front will
be centered over the area by Thursday morning, and lows will fall
into the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Thursday into Friday will feature ridging over the Great Lakes,
and a deepening trough over the northern Rockies with
strengthening southwest flow aloft over the local area. Will see
an intensifying surface low in the lee of the Rockies with a
strong pressure gradient locally supporting warmer temperatures
and gusty south winds. By Friday, wind speeds will probably be
gusting toward 40 mph while overnight lows are expected to hold
in the upper 50s to around 60. Wind speeds and Thursday night low
temperatures were targeted for improvement in this forecast due
to those factors. Do expect dry conditions through Friday and will
have to consider potential for heightened fire danger on Thursday
and Friday afternoon as RH drops and winds increase given
relatively dry fields and grasses this time of year.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Friday night into Saturday evening will feature the upper trough
crossing the Plains. It is likely to take on a positive tilt which
should force a rather strong cold front quickly south. The speed
of the front will play a substantial role in both high
temperatures and precip chances on Saturday, and at this time
favor a slightly faster progression of the surface front. Could
see some scattered thunderstorm activity across much of the area
Friday night but would not expect everyone to see precipitation.
Then on Saturday...again dependent on front timing...expect the
best chance for thunderstorms to be along and south of a Seward to
Onawa line but given that it`s a solid 4 days away and timing
could change, did not get too specific with the official rain
chance forecast. Could see a few strong storms along the cold
front, but this seems more likely farther south...especially given
the current expectation for a relatively early front passage prior
to peak heating.

Cooler temperatures and generally dry conditions are expected
through the remainder of the forecast with a northwesterly flow
pattern taking over aloft. This would suggest additional cold
fronts will be in the near future, with a rather strong one
scheduled for Monday and additional cold air surges seemingly
likely later next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

VFR conditions through the forecast period. A patch of high
clouds...FL above 15k ft...will push across the area tonight...and
another area of high clouds will move in Wednesday morning.
South/Southwest winds 5 to 10kts through tonight. The wind shift
approaches KOFK by the end of the TAF pd Wednesday morning.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Zapotocny


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