Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 171720
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1120 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

ISSUED A MINOR UPDATE TO TEXT PRODUCTS TO FRESHEN WORDING A BIT
AND ADD SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES. OTHER CHANGES WERE VERY MINOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

THE RECORD/NEAR RECORD COLD WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE A
MODEST TEMPERATURE RECOVERY COMMENCES. IF NOT FOR EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES...RECORD COLD MAX TEMPS LIKELY WOULD HAVE OCCURRED
TODAY AS DAYTIME HIGHS PROBABLY WON/T GET OUT OF MID/UPPER TEENS.
PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE PRESSES SOUTHEAST THROUGH NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURE
PROFILE IN CLOUDS FAVORABLE FOR FLURRIES...BUT CLOUD COVERAGE
SEEMS LESS THAN IT WAS EXPECTED YDA SO WILL LEAVE FLURRIES OUT OF
FORECAST BUT WITH ANY PASSING CLOUD A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ALSO BLOWING SNOW WAS MARGINAL UPSTREAM YDA...MOSTLY
OCCURRING WITH SNOW SHOWERS. SO WILL ALSO LEAVE MENTION OF B.SNOW
OUT...ALTHOUGH DRIFTING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED IN OPEN AREAS. RECORD
COLD LOWS PROBABLE TONIGHT AS WINDS DECREASE AS RIDGE AXIS
APPROACHES ERN NEBR. IF WIND DROPS OFF MORE THAN FORECAST BOTTOM
COULD DROP OUT SOME LOCATIONS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE ON TUESDAY AS MODESTLY STRONG WARM
ADVECTION OCCURS AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SE
THROUGH ERN CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH. KEPT MOST TEMPS BELOW GUIDANCE
BASED ON SNOW COVER AND THE FACT THAT TEMPS YDA IN SIMILAR SWRLY
FLOW REMAINED MOSTLY IN LOW/MID 20S AND MAINLY ONLY JUMPED HIGHER
WHEN WINDS SHIFTED TO NW...AND WINDS TUESDAY SHOULDN/T SHIFT TO NW
UNTIL AFTN FRONT PASSES AFTER SUNSET. THIS COULD BRIEFLY BUMP
READINGS UP TUE EVENING BEFORE STRONGER COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES.
HOWEVER...LOWS WED DON/T APPEAR THEY WILL BE AS COLD AS THIS
MORNING AND MIXING AND MILDER START TO WED SHOULD PROVIDE SIMILAR
MAX TEMPS TO TUESDAY DESPITE H85 TEMPS FALLING SOME 10 DEG C OVER
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY PER 00Z ECMWF.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

PATTERN BEGINS CHANGING TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND AS THE CANADIAN UPPER
TROUGH RELAXES/SHIFTS EAST AND PACIFIC ENERGY BEGINS CROSSING
PLAINS IN A SERIES OF WAVES. BEFORE CANADIAN SYSTEM DEPARTS
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE DROPPING SE THRU NRN PLAINS WILL SEND ANOTHER
WEAK BOUNDARY INTO THE FA DELAYING MODERATION SOMEWHAT IN THE
THU/FRIDAY PERIODS.

QPF WITH TROUGH CROSSING CENTRAL U.S. ON SATURDAY REMAINS MOSTLY
TO OUR SOUTH PER 00Z RUNS OF CANADIAN/GFS/DGEX AND ECMWF...WITH
THE LATTER MODEL THEN MORE BULLISH WITH PRECIP SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY
AS SOME ENERGY LIFTS NE. TEMP PROFILE ALOFT WOULD SUGGEST ANY
PRECIP SAT/SAT NIGHT WOULD BE LIQUID...POSSIBLY FREEZING OF COURSE
IF SFC TEMPS ARE COLD ENOUGH...WHICH WILL BE FOCUS AS EVENT GETS
CLOSER. FOR NOW SINCE PRECIP CHCS WERE GENERALLY SMALL AND
CONFINED MOSTLY OVER FAR SERN ZONES LEFT TYPE R- UNTIL SUNDAY
WHEN COOLING ALOFT ENTERS DEPARTING SYSTEM WHERE A MIX WAS
MENTIONED. TEMPERATURES DO APPEAR TO MODERATE FURTHER BUT MEX
APPEARS TOO WARM BASED ON SNOW COVER...AND ESPECIALLY IF CLOUDS
ARE WIDESPREAD ALSO.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS COULD AFFECT
THE TAF SITES AT LEAST TEMPORARILY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. SINCE TEMPS IN THE CLOUD LAYER WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SNOW
CRYSTAL GROWTH...FLURRIES WILL OCCUR AT TIMES BUT NO ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY EVENING...
THEN BECOME WEST OR SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...MILLER



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