Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 180843

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
343 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(today through Thursday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Forecast concerns will be any patchy fog in southwest Iowa early
this morning then cloudcover/sprinkles? behind a reinforcing cool
front today... then shower and isolated thunderstorm chances
Wednesday and Wednesday night.

The 12Z OAX H7 temperature was so warm Monday, it was a daily max
of all OAX soundings since 1948 with 14 deg. C. The previous daily
max was 12.6 degrees C. Omaha Eppley ended up breaking the daily
maximum temperature for 10/17 with 85 degrees while Lincoln was
degree short from the record with 84. By 00Z, the h85 thermal
trough had shifted southeast and extended from the Texas Panhandle
northeast to northeast Kansas and northern Missouri. 15 deg C. h85
dewpoints were pooled ahead of this area, with a trailing area of
higher dewpoints ahead of the secondary h85 boundary near SUX into
southern MN.

Early this morning, per the WSR-88D mosaic, post-frontal showers and
thunderstorms were closer to the mid level support across the
Dakotas into the Great Lakes.  The clouds and higher dewpoints will
be a little more challenging with the reinforcing cold front
pushing through...affecting parts of the forecast area. Will
consider patchy fog in southwest Iowa. Also will increase clouds
this morning and early afternoon for parts of the cwa. Highs
should top out in the lower 60s to the lower 70s.  The h85-h7
frontogenesis increases to our south along the theta-e axis where
the deep moisture resides over Missouri. Best chance for precip
will be to our south and toward the eastern Great Lakes...although
there may be a few sprinkles in northeast Nebraska per the HRRR.

The storm system affecting the Pacific Northwest moves into the
Plains late tonight into Wednesday night. All the short-range
models are in good agreement with forcing for ascent as the
shortwave trough deepens within the longwave trough as is pushes
through the Missouri River Valley. 80m ht falls are associated
with the wave moving through the Great Lakes and 20 to 40m ht
falls are progged to be associated with the wave over
Nebraska/Iowa Wednesday increasing to 80-120m ht falls Wednesday
night over Kansas and Missouri.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in northeast Nebraska
Wednesday gradually shift southeast across the forecast area
Wednesday night. It should be mainly dry and cooler Thursday.
Highs Wednesday in the upper 50s to upper 60s and in the 50s

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Dry and warmer Friday into the weekend as the h5 ridge amplifies
into the Plains. The dry weather should last into Monday save for
a spotty shower that may try to develop ahead of a cold front that
arrives Tuesday. Highs each day should be above normal in the 60s
and 70s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1039 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Visibility has dropped to MVFR at KOFK in a band from northeast NE
into southeast SD, but guidance is only just picking up on the
signal there. It still suggests visibilities stay above 6SM at
KOMA/KLNK, but am concerned that there may be at least a temporary
vis restriction. Left out mention at KOMA/KLNK for now. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF cycle. Light winds
will become northwesterly but remain under 10kt, with wind shear
possible at all sites through daybreak.




SHORT TERM...Zapotocny
LONG TERM...Zapotocny
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