Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 120539
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1139 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

BAND OF WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT -SN IN ADVANCE OF POTENT UPPER-LEVEL
PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY OVER CNTR SD HAS GENERALLY MOVD E OF THE FA
EARLY THIS AFTN. THIS ANOMALY WILL TRACK SEWD THIS EVENING ALONG
THE STRG MID-LVL THRML GRADIENT ALREADY IN PLACE OVER THE CTRL
PLAINS. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL BAND OF -SN OVER THE
ERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING TRACKING SEWD. AGAIN NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN THIS BAND...BUT WILL
INCLUDE UP TO A HALF INCH IN W-CNTRL IA. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY OVER NRN SASK WILL DVDLP SWD INTO THE AREA DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY AND WE WILL GENERALLY SEE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
TMPS WITH THE LOW- LEVEL CAA ON FRI. DID INCREASE LOWS ON FRI
NIGHT AS WE ARE EXPECTED AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
IN ADVANCE OF A BAND OF WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM SET FOR SAT NIGHT SUN. WILL INCLUDE SOME -SN CHCS IN THE
NRN CWA DURING THE DAY ON SAT...MAYBE MAKING IT SEWD INTO W-CNTRL
IA IN THE AFTN BUT ANY PRECIP WILL BE FIGHTING SOME VERY DRY AIR.
LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT INCREASES ON SAT NIGHT...BUT BEST
JUXTAPOSITION OF WEAKER STATIC STABILITY...FRONTOGENESIS AND Q-G
FORCING OCCUR TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF OUR FA WHERE MOST OF THE SN
SHLD FALL. WILL INCLUDE SOME LO CHC POPS OVER THE NRN ERN
CWA...BUT EXPECT THE BAND TO BE MAINLY OUT OF OUR AREA. THIS
TREND CONTS INTO SUN AS THE BEST 700-400 MB DCPVA MOVES THROUGH
THE CWA...BUT WE LOSE SOME MID-LVL SATURATION AND AGAIN THE BEST
SN LOOKS TO BE EAST OF OUR AREA. DID INCREASE HIGHS SEVERAL CAT ON
SUN AND MIGHT NOT BE WARM ENOUGH AS OUR LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS
SOUTHWEST AND WE MAY SEE SOME SUN IN THE AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

LARGE-SCALE PATTERN CHANGE STILL LOOKS LIKELY IN THE EXTENDED
RANGE OF THE FORECAST...BUT JUST HOW FAR E THE MID-LVL RIDGE
FLATTENS IS STILL IN DOUBT. IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE WILL SEE SOME
WARMING...BUT MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF CONTD WEAK WAVES IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND HOW SIG ANY CAA WILL BE. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE WARMING WILL TREND WILL TREND A BIT
COOLER WITH TMPS. IT DOES GENERALLY LOOK DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

05Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FILLING SURFACE LOW OVER NERN KS /S
OF BIE/ WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG A KLNK-KOFK LINE.
WEAK WINDS ALONG THIS TROUGH HAVE RESULTED IFR CIGS AND SOME
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IN FOG AT KOFK. THIS SHOULD BE A SHORT-
TERM CONDITION AS SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE
NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST
/WITH SOME BRIEF FLUCTUATIONS -- BOTH UP AND DOWN/ INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. BY MID TO LATE MORNING...MVFR CIGS SHOULD BREAK AT KOFK
AND KOMA AS A SURGE OF DRIER POLAR AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH. MVFR CIGS WILL HOLD A BIT LONGER AT KLNK...BUT SHOULD
EVENTUALLY MIX OUT BY MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MEAD


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