Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 131720

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1120 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 254 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

A weak short-wave trough moving through the mid-MO Valley early
this morning has contributed to patchy flurries which should
shift to the southeast of the area around or shortly after
sunrise. Subsidence on the backside of the impulse should allow
for some breaks in the clouds today, though an entrenched
continental-polar air mass will limit daytime highs to 10 to 15.

Tonight, another weak perturbation will track from the northern
High Plains into the central Plains with an associated belt of
ascent fostering the development of light snow which will
overspread our area. Decreasing static stability and a focused
corridor of warm-air advection could promote the formation of a
mesoscale band over portions of southeast NE, where we will
indicate one to two-inch snowfall accumulations. Amounts should
decrease to around a half inch within the counties bordering
either side of the MO River.

The light snow is expected to taper off Sunday morning with the
warm-air advection boosting afternoon highs into the upper 20s to
mid 30s across our eastern NE counties with mid to upper 20s over
southwest IA.

On Sunday night into Monday, a deep-layer cyclone will form over
the upper Great Lakes with an attending arctic front surging south
through the mid-MO Valley. This frontal passage will be
accompanied by a band of light snow as well as strong north winds
and markedly colder temperatures. Additional snowfall
accumulations associated with the frontal passage should be
generally less than an inch with highs on Monday ranging from
around 3 above north to 13 south.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 254 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

Surface high pressure will build south through the northern and
central Plains Monday night with lows falling to -7 to -13. When
combined with northwest winds of 5 to 15 mph, bitter-cold wind
chills of -20 to -30 are expected into Tuesday morning.

The unseasonably cold weather will linger through Tuesday before
we see moderating temperatures by the middle to latter part of the
upcoming week. In fact, we could see daytime highs warming to
above seasonal normals by as early as Thursday. Chances for
measurable precipitation during the long-term period currently
appear negligible.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1116 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of today with
MVFR conditions moving in later this evening as a disturbance
brings a chance for snow across the TAF sites. KOMA could pick up
a half inch of snow through the overnight but KOFK and KLNK may
see around an inch or two. Visibilities will be reduced to IFR
conditions in falling snow. Conditions should improve to MVFR or
even VFR once the snow has moved out of the area by 13-15Z Sunday.




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