Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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617
FXUS63 KOAX 222325
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
625 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

Latest subjective surface analysis indicates an outflow boundary
from around KOFK to KTQE to KHNR. This boundary had become
stationary early this afternoon, but now appears to be retreating
again. The synoptic cold front extended from southeast SD into
central NEb this afternoon. Significant height falls continue to
dive into the Great Basin this afternoon, and downstream from
this heights were increasing over the central and northern Plains.
Thus little in the way of large-scale forcing is present tonight
for lift. We will see a broad persistent area of low to mid-level
WAA over the area overnight associated with the nocturnal low-
level jet, but point forecast sounding appear capped overnight.
There is the smallest of chance that an isolated storm could
develop near the retreating outflow boundary this evening and will
maintain a slight chance pop over the northeast CWA for that
potential. Otherwise we expect another dry day on Friday with very
warm mid-level temperatures overhead. Should see highs well above
normal with temperatures climbing into the upper 80s to near 90
most areas.

The Great Basin trough will start to shift east Friday night with
a strong jet segment moving into the northern Plains. As this
occurs a cold front will sweep east into the area during the day
on Saturday. There will certainly be sufficient moisture for
rain/storms, but severity of said activity is uncertain at this
time. The wind profile does improve on Saturday as mid- level
speeds increase to 35-45 kt, but instability looks marginal with
sub-par mid level lapse rates. We anticipate an early convective
development on Saturday with some marginal wind threat as the line
pushes east. Does appear like most area will see a good shot at
rain though so high pops seem justified.

The cold front will slow on Saturday night as it becomes oriented
parallel to the deep-layer flow. We will maintain pops along and
behind the front into Saturday night, but most of the
thunderstorms, especially any strong ones, should be east of the
area by Saturday night. After some lingering showers on Sunday
morning we should start to dry out with much cooler air in the
region.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

The large-scale flow pattern will become northwest briefly after
this weekends trough passage, which will keep some cooler weather
into early next week, but then most models indicate that some
ridging will develop toward mid week with temperatures starting to
warm. Little in the way of significant weather systems /the 12Z
GEM was discounted for this forecast/ are expected during the
extended.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS for KOFK...KLNK and KOMA.)
Issued at 624 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

VFR conditions expected thru the fcst pd.

&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DEE



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