Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 192015
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
315 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Thu May 19 2016

The main forecast issues in the short term will be precipitation
chances by Sunday and temperatures through the period.

Upper air charts from 12z this morning had the following features of
interest. At 300 mb...a jestreak of around 125 knots was off the
coast of Washington and Oregon. This was associated with an
impressive trough at 500 mb (with 12 hour height falls of up to 160
meters) over the Pacific Northwest. A much weaker trough extended
from eastern North Dakota to western Kansas. 700 mb temperatures in
the region were on the cool side...generally around 0 degrees C...
but a thermal ridge extended from California into Montana. 850 mb
moisture was generally lacking locally...but higher amounts were
noted from Oklahoma southward and also along the Gulf Coast.

The large scale pattern will generally be progressive for our region
the next several days....but also feature a tendency for a trough
between about 110 and 130 degrees west longitude over the next week.

Precipitation chances will not be zero...but large scale forcing is
likely to remain unorganized. That weak shortwave to our west will
move east tonight and Friday...while ridging develops over the
western High Plains. Farther west...a closed low will drop southeast
toward northern California. High temperatures locally should slowly
moderate Friday through Sunday...with southerly low level flow
through the period.

Tonight...general consensus from the short range models...including
the NAM and HRRR...is that the deeper 850-700 mb moisture and
weak mid level lift associated with showers currently over Kansas
will develop into southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa this
evening then dissipate. But more development could occur
overnight. For amounts...it looks like most spots would see less
than a tenth of an inch. Held some low pops into Friday
afternoon...then expect mainly dry conditions from Friday night
through Saturday.

Some showers and thunderstorms should develop Saturday night...
especially to our west...where higher precipitable water and a 40
plus knot low level jet will be in place.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Thu May 19 2016

This period will be somewhat unsettled and will have to include
a chance of thunderstorms most periods.

Our area should start out in southwest mid level flow...with a
closed low over the southern parts of Alberta and Saskatchewan.
Our flow generally remains out of the southwest through mid week
as a trough remains over the western United States.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS for KOMA...KLNK...KOFK through 18Z Friday)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Thu May 19 2016

CU field had expanded rapidly with heating prior to issuance and
is expected to remain until after 00Z. MVFR cigs AOB FL015 are
expected to spread into the area after 10Z-12Z as moisture
associated with upper trough moving across KS is advected north on
the backside of the system. The GFS and ECMWF are in decent
agreement with the overall pattern...but differ on details.

&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...Fobert



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