Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 240846
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
246 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

PRIMARY CONCERN AT THIS TIME WILL BE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM COMING ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

MAJORITY OF THE LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST MAIN BAND OF SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD SETUP FROM
NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA. WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
IOWA COUNTIES IN THE CWA ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THIS SNOW BAND WITH POTENTIAL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
INDICATED AT THIS TIME. SNOW AMOUNTS THEN DECREASE TO THE WEST
WITH 1 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS FOR MOST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA. AREAS TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST OF LINCOLN SHOULD SEE THE LEAST SNOWFALL.

AMONG THE 00Z MODELS THE GFS TRENDS THE FURTHEST WEST WITH THE
SYSTEM WHILE THE EURO...GEM AND NAM HAVE THE TRACK MORE ACROSS
EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI. NO HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME...PREFER TO LET DAY SHIFT SEE NEXT MODEL RUN.

WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING AND INCREASING
BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH THEN WEAKEN BY EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW
APPROACHES FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. MORE COLD AIR IS IN STORE
FOR THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
ANY SNOW COVER WILL ENHANCE THE COLD WITH LITTLE RECOVERY ON
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE DURING THE PERIOD AS MORE
PRONOUNCED SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS. POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
DEPENDING ON MODEL SOLUTION AS BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF
STRONG SHORT WAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

BRISK SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. THEN NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DOMINATE IN THE 15 TO 25KT RANGE. A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS NEAR FL025 IS LIKELY ALONG AND BEHIND COLD FRONT. LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING WITH WEST WINDS
NEAR 45KT AT FL015 EARLY...THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST BETWEEN 10Z AND
12Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DERGAN


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