Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 131824
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
124 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017

Region remains under the influence of a weak upper-level ridge
axis which extends from the Four Corners region north/northeast
into the High Plains. Upstream, an elongated shortwave trough
extends from the northern Canadian prairie provinces southwest
into the Pacific northwest. In addition, a closed upper low is
just moving onto the California coast.

At the surface, a quasi-stationary front extending from
southeastern ND into northwestern Nebraska has been the focus for
weak overnight convection aided by a southwesterly low-level jet.
CAM`s continue to weaken this activity as it moves east, away
from the low-level jet so have left our forecast area dry through
the day. The exception is the operational HRRR which does show
some weak activity developing over our area this afternoon.
Confidence is low as point forecast soundings show fairly dry
parcel. Continued southerly low-level flow will allow high
temperatures to warm into the upper 80s to around 90 today.
Temperatures will remain well above normal in advance of the
western trough through Friday with isolated thunderstorms possible
tonight and again Thursday night as mid-level warm advection
moves across the region.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017

A strong cold front will dive through the area Saturday ahead of
the western trough. With current frontal timing, thunderstorm
development could be as early as early Saturday afternoon along
the front and continue southeast along the boundary through the
evening. Some storms could be strong with steepening mid-level
lapse rates over the area.

Surface high pressure moves in quickly by Sunday and return flow
sets ups early next week ahead of a deep western trough along with
a few hit and miss showers. VFR conditions with south winds 4 to
10kts through this evening. Low level wind shear increases for
tonight and mentioned at KOFK and KLNK after 05Z.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 118 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017

Pooled mid level moisture combined with a weak shortwave will
slide to the east and produce mid and high level clouds mostly
above fl100.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kern
LONG TERM...Kern
AVIATION...Zapotocny



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