Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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563
FXUS63 KOAX 202316
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
616 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

Much quieter today compared to 24 hours ago. Temperatures and rain
chances will be the main forecast concerns in the short term.

Primary features of interest from the upper air charts this
morning included the following. At 300 mb main jetstream winds of
80 knots or more curved southeast across CA and into AZ, then
there was another segment from eastern CO toward the Great Lakes.
At 500 mb there was a weak low near the MN/ND border with a weak
trough extending south into our area. Then there was a negative
tilted trough from off the coast of the Pacific Northwest down
into northern AZ. Best 850 mb moisture was off to the east and
south, since it had been pushed out of the area with the frontal
passage yesterday. Early afternoon surface analysis showed
northwest winds in our area, but a ridge of high pressure was
building toward the eastern Dakotas and eastern NE. That high
should settle into the area tonight with decent radiational
cooling at least the first part of the night. Mid and high level
moisture will start to increase over southeast NE and that may
help hold low temperatures up a little there.

Best rain chances will stay to our west and south, but will keep a
small chance of showers in parts of southeast NE from Friday
afternoon into Saturday morning. This is closest to the mid level
low portion of a somewhat unusual Rex block that is expected to
develop over the northern and central parts of the Plains Friday.

A stronger area of high pressure at the surface should build
into the northern parts of the forecast area late Friday night
with clearing skies there. Some frost appears possible but will
not mention in grids at this point. Saturday looks like highs
should be mainly in the 60s and trended upward just a bit compared
to the blended MOS.

That surface high should settle southward Saturday night
then southeastward Sunday, with southerly flow increasing,
especially across northeast NE. Have high temperatures reaching
near 70 or into the lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

Will have a dry forecast from Sunday night into early Monday, but
then the pattern looks somewhat unsettled for the rest of the
week. Fairly strong westerly mid level flow should be in place by
Monday night, then a broad trough slowly digs to our west through
Wednesday. Model agreement starts to fade in regards to details by
about mid week. Will include a 20-50 percent chance of showers for
most of the forecast area from Tuesday into Thursday. The Canadian
NH model looked way too wet for Tuesday night into Wednesday and
was not given much weight. Highs in that period should be mostly
upper 50s to mid 60s, with lows from around 40 to the mid 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

VFR conditions are forecast through Friday afternoon as scattered
cumulus near FL050 dissipates this evening, then scattered to
broken mid and high clouds stream in from the southwest on Friday.
Winds will average 12kt or less, favoring a northerly direction
tonight, and turning easterly during the day Friday.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...Dergan



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