Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 182305

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
605 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 403 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

Surface and H8 ridge will move east of CWA during
the evening and overnight period, allowing southerly flow
to return to the area, impacting temperatures and low level
moisture. LLJ increases to 35kt overnight and will help draw
increasing moisture H9-H8. Short term models tended to over-
initialize moisture across southern plains/Gulf Coast, so not
overly confident on northern extent, which will play a role
in elevated thunderstorm potential. SPC has extended general
thunder area into southeast portions of CWA by 12UTC, but that
will be highly contingent on moisture. For now will keep PoPs
below 15 until extent of moisture advection becomes evident.

Whether any stratus makes it into forecast area will have affect
on temperatures tomorrow. All short term models depicting strong
surface to H8 warm advection, thus expect a 15-20 jump in
temperatures for tomorrow afternoon.  Records are in the lower
80s, thus though well above normal for mid-March, not record
setting. Warm temperatures and improved low level moisture
profile will set the stage for isolated thunderstorms, ahead
of surface front that will be entering western part of CWA
by late afternoon. Threat of storms will occur across mainly
southern portions of CWA during the late afternoon into evening
hours. Front will move south of the area overnight Sunday,
placing enter CWA on the cold side of the surface frontal system,
and thus temperatures will trend cooler.

Deepening mid-level cyclone over central Kansas will drive
cooler airmass into area on Tuesday. Shortwave moving around
base of shortwave moving across southern Kansas, will bring
chance of mixed precipitation to northern portions of the CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 403 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

Medium range models showing fair amount of divergence
in medium range in the Wednesday through Friday timeframe
in terms of progression of long range trough.  Confidence
is low on the timing of various shortwave/jet features that
will produce precipitation. Best chances appear to be Thursday
into Friday. Again, looks to be a mixture of precipitation
Thursday, especially across northern CWA, trending to all liquid
during the day.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 605 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

A lee trough situated over the northern and central High Plains
as of 23z will transition to a southeastward-moving cold front
which will traverse the Dakotas on Sunday. Ahead of the front,
persistent southerly low-level winds will encourage the flux of an
increasingly moist air mass into the region with broken VFR (i.e.
FL050) ceilings possible at KOMA and KLNK Sunday morning.


Issued at 4039 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

Increasing temperatures on Saturday, coupled with increasing
wind speeds will elevate fire danger.  Mitigating factor
will be the amount of low level moisture that makes it
into forecast area overnight. If moisture is underdone,
many areas may see fire danger potential rise into very high




LONG TERM...Fortin
FIRE WEATHER...Fortin is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.