Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 191130
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
630 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

AFTER AREAS FROST THIS MORNING...BRINGING RAIN BACK INTO THE REGION
LATER TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE WAS RIDGING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 30S IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE FROST
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN ADVISORY AS
IS FOR NOW...BUT LOW CLOUDS DRIFTING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE WEST MAY HOLD LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AT OBSERVING
SITES. HOWEVER LOW LYING AREAS WERE ALREADY IN THE MIDDLE 30S...SO
THERE IS SURE TO BE SOME FROST BUT PERHAPS NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS
EARLIER THINKING.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST STATES THAT WILL
EJECT A CHUNK OF ENERGY THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AS IT DRIFTS THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL STILL SPREAD
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO MUCH OF OUR AREA DURING THAT TIME. INITIAL
MOISTURE PROFILES ARE QUITE DRY IN LOW LEVELS WHICH WILL TEND TO
DELAY ONSET OF PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON. MOST EVERYONE SHOULD SEE RAIN
OVERNIGHT WHEN BULK OF QPF IS EXPECTED...AND GENERALLY AMOUNTING TO
A HALF INCH OR LESS. SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW SHORTWAVE TO THE EAST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY LINGERING CHANCES IN FAR EAST AND
NORTH BY LATE IN THE DAY.

CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION TODAY AND WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH NORTHEAST
AND NORTH WINDS WILL MAINTAIN COOL 50S FOR HIGHS. MORE SUNSHINE AND
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 60S
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LOW IS AGAIN THE FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THE
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE OFFERING A SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT EVOLUTION THAN THE
MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION 24 HOURS AGO. NOW THERE IS DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT LOW WILL MAINTAIN A GENERAL TROUGH POSITION FROM
IDAHO TO ARIZONA WHILE SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY...THEN BROADENS OUT
SUNDAY ALLOWING SHORTWAVES TO MOVE CLOSER TO OUR AREA.

MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...INDUCED NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AS
PRESSURES LOWER IN THE HIGH PLAINS WILL DRIVE SURFACE DEW POINTS
INTO THE 60S HERE BY SUNDAY. INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE TO OUR WEST ON
SATURDAY...SO EXPECT BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS/SEVERE THERE. BY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN IOWA.

STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING DETAILS OF UPPER FLOW PATTERN
AND SURFACE FEATURES. HOWEVER PATTERN CERTAINLY SUPPORTS AT LEAST
MODERATE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL THETA-E IN OUR REGION...AND THUS
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS. WILL CONTINUE WITH FAIRLY HIGH POPS FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

MVFR CEILINGS HAD MOVED IN AT KOMA AND KOFK A BIT EARLIER AND WILL
CONTINUE FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING BEFORE BREAKING UP. MVFR CEILINGS
MAY ALSO MOVE IN TO KLNK FOR A FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR MID
CLOUDS TO THICK AND LOWER LATER TODAY. SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS RETURNING WITH THE PCPN TONIGHT.
DID NOT MENTION IFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME...BUT CEILINGS AND
VSBYS COULD DROP THAT LOW AT SOME POINT...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>033.

IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...MILLER



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