Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 190438
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1138 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2016

Mainly quiet weather with subtle precipitation chances in the
short term with gradual warming/more humid and increasing
thunderstorm chances through Wednesday afternoon and beyond.

A shortwave in the flow is pushing across Missouri and the main h5
area of low pressure over Canada has a pre-frontal trough/dryline in
central Nebraska and a trailing cold front across the Northern
Plains and Northern Rockies. South flow ahead of the front today
and lowering surface pressures have boosted highs into the lower
and mid 80s with south breezes 10-20kts. Surface dewpoints ahead
of the surface trough/dryline are in the 60s...with drier 30s/40s
dewpoints behind the dryline in west central Nebraska.

Through tonight...the best height falls track across Canada and
the surface front is pushed into northeast Nebraska. Although we
have instability per the SPC meso graphics of 2-3k J/kg across the
CWA ...thunderstorms have bubbled up closer to the shortwave in
Missouri. There is continued theta-e advection in a narrow band
where some moisture resides locally. Although something isolated
may try to develop, HRRR/RAP/other short term models all remain
dry and will leave forecast dry as the better forcing is to the
north or east.

Monday the surface front in northeast Nebraska slowly pushes
south. There is some convergence along the surface and h85 front.
Moisture is mostly limited, however better moisture could pool
near the front. Currently the short term models show this to be
east of our area in central and eastern Iowa...thus will leave
forecast dry through Monday night. Highs in the north should be in
the lower 80s with lower 90s possible toward the KS/MO border.

South flow increases Tuesday and temperatures return to the mid
80s to lower 90s. With the warm front returning north, something
isolated may develop, however with frontogenesis/forcing well to
the north...the best chances appear toward the SD border and near
SUX or northward and have a low pop this area.

Wednesday...there is a positively tilted h5 trough in the Pacific
Northwest and southwest flow aloft over the Rockies. A shortwave
is forecast in the flow and steep lapse rates in place with pwats
of 1.5 to 2 inches will bring isolated thunderstorm to the area
Wednesday afternoon along with temperatures in the mid 80s to
lower 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2016

...wet/cooler weather to interfere with weekend plans for parts
of the area if the pattern holds...

Thunderstorm chances improve Wednesday night as surface low
pressure travels northeast along the front and lingers Thursday.

Closed h5 low pressure over Nevada gradually lifts north and the
front that stalled Thursday will lift north Friday and
precipitation trends should follow and also lift north.

Highs Thursday should be in the 70s and 80s with 80s most places
Friday.

The storm system is forecast to lift north toward Montana and pushes
a front into the area Saturday. Wet weather should accompany the
front and takes a while to exit. Cooler highs in the 60s and 70s
are forecast for the weekend. The weather this weekend will
depend highly on clouds/precip/where the front is.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS for KOFK...KLNK and KOMA.)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Various models
continue to indicate some light MVFR fog early this morning at
mainly KOMA, but given the expected wind and current dew point
depressions will keep it out of the forecast for now. A cold front
will move through all 3 TAF sites dry during the period, around
13Z at KOFK and near 18Z at KOMA/KLNK. We will likely see some
scattered afternoon CU around FL040 with the front at KOMA.

&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Zapotocny
LONG TERM...Zapotocny
AVIATION...Boustead



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