Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 070535
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1135 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 315 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

Forecast concerns in the short term will mainly be exiting
precipitation...then temperatures and flurry or light snow
chances through the next week. No significant storm systems are
forecast although a couple light snow chances exist.

At mid afternoon...a band of light snow/flurries was pushing
south through the area. The WSR-88D dual pol radar imagery
supported by surface observations highlighted that there was
mainly snow in the band, however some mixed precipitation in the
form of sprinkles and sleet were also noted.

The band is on the leading edge of colder Canadian air...with the
cold front. In addition to the clouds and snow, gusty northwest
winds will continue at 15 to 30 mph. At 20Z...2-3mb pressure
rises were noted behind the front . H85 temperatures started out
the day around minus 5deg C tonight and Thursday morning they will
be down to minus 12 to -14 deg C. Flurries will be possible
wherever there are clouds with dendritic growth zone (DGZ)
temperatures. A pocket of stronger winds are rotating through
Minnesota and this could kick off a few flurries. There is a
coating of snow in northeast Nebraska and not sure how much this
will offset the winds, however do have low temperatures in the
single digits to middle teens tonight.

Sunshine is forecast for Thursday. It will remain cold with highs
in the 20s to lower 30s. The longwave trough pushes through the
Ohio River Valley with rising heights over the Plains.
Meanwhile...a strong upper level jet with the left exit region
over the area combined with upward vertical motion is expected to
produce increasing clouds late Thursday night and Friday.
Moisture in the DGZ favors flurries and light snow for part of the
area. So far the models show the moisture, but do not have snow
accumulations, so for now will mention flurries.

Reinforcing cold air drops south on the back side of the trough
with increasing winds and H85 of -10 to -15 over parts of Iowa
accompanied by h85 winds. This should hold temperatures into the
30s most places until the cold air shifts east.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

Even warmer air spreads east Sunday. The h5 ridge remains anchored
over the western U.S. and much of the Plains is under the
influence of warm westerly winds. A shortwave trough in the
north flow breaks down this ridge with an influx of cold air. The
Arctic air signal is stronger with the GFS with -20 to -24 deg at
h85 for the Great Lakes, while the EC in not as cold with -16 to
-20. Either way, look for temperatures to be cooler for Monday and
 there could be another band of light snow with this front. The
 blends warm temperatures up for Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1135 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the period with diminishing
northwest winds as high pressure builds southeast across the
region from the western high plains.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Zapotocny
LONG TERM...Zapotocny
AVIATION...Fobert



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