Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 110450
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1150 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

Main forecast concerns centers around freeze/frost potential
overnight.

Potent closed mid-upper low continues to drift northeast across
northeast Kansas and southwest Iowa this afternoon while weak
shortwave ridging shifts east of the Rockies. At the surface, low
pressure continues to drift east across the Mississippi River Valley
while high pressure fills in behind. Strong subsidence behind the
departing low will continue to bring clearing from west to east
overnight. Some models are hanging on to clouds along the Missouri
River Valley and points east and so think temps should remain
above freezing along and east of the river. Areas to the west
however will be clear and under the high pressure ridge axis and
so think freezing temperatures are possible. Therefore, will be
issuing a freeze warning and adjacent frost advisories for these
areas.

After a cold start to Wednesday morning, a relatively nice day is
expected as surface high pressure slowly drifts east of the region
and weak southerly return flow sets up overhead. Thursday should be
another nice fall day before precipitation moves into the forecast
area on Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

A strong/quick-moving shortwave is forecast to dig  through the
Central Plains over the weekend bringing increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms. Pops become more likely Saturday along a
frontal boundary extending northeast from central Kansas into
central Iowa. The boundary heads south as a cold front Sunday night
with strong CAA diving south behind it.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

An area of cigs near FL030 along the Missouri River will be slow
to clear KOMA. TAF keeps VFR cigs there for a few hours, but could
see a brief drop into the upper MVFR range. Otherwise clear skies
and light northwest winds are forecast overnight, with winds
turning southeast by 18Z at all sites, but will remain under 12kt.
There is also a small chance MVFR fog could form at sites near
12Z, but was not mentioned in TAFs.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Frost Advisory until 10 AM CDT Wednesday for NEZ045-052-053-067-
     068-090-092.

     Freeze Warning until 10 AM CDT Wednesday for NEZ011-012-015>018-
     030>034-042>044-050-051-065-066-078-088-089.

IA...Frost Advisory until 10 AM CDT Wednesday for IAZ043-055.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kern
LONG TERM...Kern
AVIATION...Dergan



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