Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 162115
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
315 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Complex forecast with headlines changing this forecast package. It
has been a challenging event. Roads and other surfaces refreezing
for the upcoming overnight period is a concern.

Upper air charts from 12Z this morning had the following features
of interest. 300 mb jet streaks of around 100 knots were noted
over New England and across west Texas. The 12 hour height fall
center at 500 mb was over northern Oklahoma (around 140 meters).
Last evening the height fall center was over Midland TX. Closed
low was near the Oklahoma and Kansas border.

At 3 pm...the center of the closed mid tropospheric circulation
was over northeast Kansas...with a weakening deformation zone
extending from northeast Nebraska into southern Minnesota and
Wisconsin. Fairly tight deformation zone had a rather intense band
of radar returns across northeast Nebraska. Farther south, there
were areas of drizzle and some scattered showers.

Overall, we look for precipitation intensity and coverage to
decrease through the evening. Will drop any headlines here shortly
for areas near the Missouri border where temperatures have been
in the lower to mid 30s. Warning headlines will remain in place
for parts of the area until 7 pm, then will take those down to a
winter weather advisory and keep that until 3 am Tuesday. Will
let the next shift or two decide if an extension is needed.

The primary surface low should continue to track northeast with
north or northwest low level winds in our area increasing mainly
into the 8 to 15 knot range. Any measurable precipitation should
end by midnight or 1 am, but can not rule out a bit of drizzle or
patchy freezing drizzle after that.

Clouds will decrease from west to east later tonight and on
Tuesday, with surface high pressure building over the area. Highs
should reach the 30s so look for some improvement with the ice
that is in place.

Dry weather is expected then into Thursday. There are hints at
Highs
should be mainly in the 40s for both Wednesday and Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

We will need to monitor for some light precipitation potential for
Thursday night as low level moisture returns. Did not mention
anything at this time.

For Friday into Sunday night, we will carry some chance of rain
and snow. Depending on temperatures there may be some freezing
rain. Models are in decent agreement showing a modest closed low
at 500 mb lifting northeast across parts of the region Thursday
into Friday. A blocking ridge over parts of Canada slows down the
flow of over the central Plains over the weekend so in does look
unsettled. Daytime highs should be mainly 40s or upper 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1127 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Mosaic radar data as of 1715z indicate the primary deformation
axis of the mature synoptic cyclone from central IA to n-cntrl KS.
This feature will continue to pivot northeast this afternoon with
freezing rain eventually mixing with sleet and snow before
changing over all light snow at KOFK by late afternoon. At KOMA
and KLNK, more continuous rain will transition to rain showers or
drizzle as the deformation axis shifts north. IFR conditions will
prevail at all TAF sites through 17/06z, before ceilings and
visibilities begin to improve from west to east across the area
late tonight into Tuesday morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM CST Tuesday for NEZ044-045-
     050>053-065>067-078.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 3 AM CST
     Tuesday for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042-043.

     Ice Storm Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for NEZ015-032>034-
     042-043.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CST this evening for NEZ088.

     Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for NEZ011-012-
     016>018-030-031.

IA...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM CST Tuesday for IAZ055-056-
     069.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 3 AM CST
     Tuesday for IAZ043.

     Ice Storm Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for IAZ043.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...Mead



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