000
FXUS63 KOAX 211953
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
253 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Cold front at 19z extended from Onawa, IA southward into the Omaha
metro area, and southward toward Beatrice, NE. A line of shower
and storms had developed along the front, individual storms moving
northeast while the front itself moving east. High-res CAMs
suggest this convective activity will clear southwest IA and
southeast NE by about 22z. There may be some showers that develop
behind the line, but the severe threat seems essentially be south
or southeast of the area where a severe thunderstorm watch is
already in place. Otherwise, gusty winds behind the front, but
those diminish pretty quickly this evening and back becoming west
southwest. Lows drop into the mid 30s in northeast NE, and into
the mid 40s southeast NE and southwest IA.

Sunday should be a beautiful sunny day. West southwest surface
winds 5-10 mph, with highs in the mid to upper 60s.

Another cold front moves into and through the area Monday night.
This will bring gusty northwest winds of 20 to 30 mph to the area,
with gusts 30 to 40 mph. Winds could be near advisory criteria in
northeast NE, with sustained winds around 30 mph and gusts up to
45 mph. The cold air does lag the front by about 24 hours, so
highs still near normal Monday in the mid to upper 60s.

The colder air finally arrives on Tuesday. Northwest flow continues,
and it will again be a windy day, with northwest winds at 15 to
30 mph with higher gusts. Winds may be just slightly lower than on
Monday. High temps Tuesday range in the mid to upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Winds back early in the period becoming west southwest on
Wednesday, which should boost temps back into the mid to upper
60s. The warmup is short-lived as another strong front moves into
the area by daybreak Thursday, with another surge of colder air
and strong gusty northwest winds behind it. Strong northwest winds
continue on Friday, with highs only in the 40s. For areas that
have not received a freeze yet, we`re looking at sub 32 readings
forecast area wide Friday night. Still quite cool on Saturday with
highs again 45-50. There are some model differences that do need
to be resolved on precip trends. GFS is wetter than the ECMWF
which remains dry through the period. Thus are some some spotty
slight precip chances next Friday into Saturday, and because of
the cold temps, we do have both rain and snow mentioned. However,
confidence is pretty low regarding Pop trends that far out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Mainly MVFR ceilings extend across all sites, with showers near
KOFK and approaching KLNK. As area of showers approaches KLNK and
particularly KOMA, it may also develop embedded thunderstorms.
Gusty south to southwest winds ahead of the front and line of
showers will switch to northwesterly. Winds likely will be gusty
immediately behind the front for an hour or two, then gradually
slacken through the rest of the evening and tonight, along with
improving ceilings.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DeWald
LONG TERM...DeWald
AVIATION...Mayes