000
FXUS63 KOAX 052335
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
535 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DURING THIS
PERIOD.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SPREAD SOME VARIABLE MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD KEEP
LOWS TONIGHT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...MOSTLY UPPER TEENS AND LOWER
20S. MILD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH SATURDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MAY SINK IN FROM THE NORTH
FOR SUNDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

OVERALL...PCPN CHANCES REMAIN FAIRLY LOW. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND TOWARD NORTHERN IOWA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE ANY PCPN WITH
THAT SYSTEM WOULD PROBABLY STAY NORTH OR NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. INITIALLY A
500 MB TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC ALONG
120-130 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE UP AS FAR AS SOUTHWEST BRITISH
COLUMBIA. THAT RIDGE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
THE FLOW OVER THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES GENERALLY DEAMPLIFYING.
AT THE SAME TIME A TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THAT TROUGH SHOULD MOVE ONTO THE WEST COAST BY THURSDAY
OR FRIDAY. THIS LEADS TO FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A MILD PATTERN
FOR OUR AREA WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK...
WITH 60S LIKELY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ECMWF EVEN SUGGESTS SOME
HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 70.

MODELS START TO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES BY LATE NEXT WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND...SO BY THAT TIME FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS TO AROUND
AVERAGE. PCPN CHANCES MAY RETURN BY MARCH 14 OR 15.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A FEW MID CLOUDS TO THE AREA FL100-150.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS 6-14KT. INCLUDED LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR FOR A FEW HOURS AT KOMA. SURFACE WINDS VEER TO THE
SOUTHWEST/WEST/NORTHWEST 10-20KTS AFTER 18Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY