352
FXUS63 KOAX 301100
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
600 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of thunderstorms are bringing the potential for
  damaging wind to southeast Nebraska Monday morning, but should
  clear out by mid morning.

- Dry conditions with highs in the 80s are expected for Monday
  and Tuesday.

- Independence Day will be hot with a slight chance for an
  evening storm, but right now it looks more likely to remain
  dry through the evening.

- Greater chances for thunderstorms arrive by Friday evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

It`s another morning with widespread thunderstorms across the
region, although so far, Monday morning has featured very little
convective activity in the local NWS Omaha forecast area. That
trend looks to be short-lived though as storms are surging east
southeast out of central NE at 3 AM. Surface analysis indicates
that a nearly stationary front extends from north central KS
into southeast Kansas, with a broad zone of boundary layer
convergence extending along the KS/NE border. A short wave
trough is moving southeast across the region, and is serving as
the large scale forcing mechanism to help drive the large
convective clusters. The storms entering the Kearney area have
shown signs of maintaining severe wind signatures, particularly
within embedded meso-lows where the equatorward side is surging
with a stronger local eastward component than the broader
southeastward system motion. Most unstable CAPE in advance of
this activity, including much of southeast NE and southwest IA,
is on the order of 1000 to 2000 J/kg. Low and mid level wind
fields are weak, but with increasing westerly flow above 6 km.
There is inhibition of the most unstable boundary layer parcels,
but so far the cold pool has been plenty deep enough to force
parcels to the LFC and maintain forward propagation. Objective
analysis and model fields over southeast Nebraska insist in the
presence of pretty dry layer just off the surface and up through
800 hPa. This should act to increase inhibition as the storms
move into this area, but still expect continued eastward
progression at least for a while. It will be very interesting to
see if this dry air may at least initially act to intensify
downdrafts before eventually limiting the ability to forward
propagate as it pushes deeper into the drier airmass. The storms
have a history of damaging winds, and expect this to continue
east southeast, with the main question being how long and how
far east it continues. The greatest threat is definitely over
the far southern parts of the forecast area. Farther north,
expect isolated to scattered showers and maybe a thunderstorm.
All of this activity will move out of the area by mid to late
morning as the short wave continues southeast.

The rest of today into Tuesday and much of Wednesday will
feature temperatures in the 80s building toward 90 by Wed as
upper heights increase. No precipitation is expected through
Tuesday, and a very small chance on Wednesday as a weak short
wave trough rolls over the ridge axis. A similar scenario exists
early Thursday morning with a weak low level jet and weak short
wave trough passing through. Then greater attention turns to
Independence Day. Temperatures will continue to warm with
southerly winds and a building narrow ridge overhead. Expect
highs in the low to mid 90s. There also remains a signal amidst
model guidance that a few storms will be possible in the area
late in the day, but boundary layer forcing for ascent appears
minimal. So the storm potential is quite low, but if one
develops it would most likely be in that 7-10 PM window of great
interest on the 4th.

Going into Friday and Saturday ensemble guidance is consistent
in bringing a strong short wave trough across the central and
northern Plains over the top of the existing quality moisture
and heat in the boundary layer. This looks like a recipe for
thunderstorms, with some severe potential depending on timing of
the upper wave forcing and enhanced mid level westerlies. Friday
evening currently appears to be the most likely time frame for a
severe threat. After that, the front waffles north and south
through the region with occasional short wave trough passages,
especially northwest of the local area. This points to
additional thunderstorm chances into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 558 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

At the start of the TAF period, OMA has localized fog on the
airport which should thin and lift by 13Z to VFR. There is also
an area of thunderstorms south of LNK which will bring some
light rain to LNK through around 14Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions
dominate with some wind gusts this afternoon. There is a chance
for some fog to develop tonight after 06Z as well, but have not
included in the TAF at this time.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Barjenbruch