000
FXUS63 KOAX 111120
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
520 AM CST WED DEC 11 2013

.AVIATION...

12Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK.

MVFR CEILINGS AND FLURRIES HAD SHIFTED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES AS OF 1120Z. WILL KEEP A TEMPO GROUP FOR POSSIBLE MVFR
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
MAINLY VFR. NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY THEN TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT.

MILLER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CST WED DEC 11 2013/

DISCUSSION...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE
CWA OVERNIGHT WHICH BROUGHT A VERY NARROW BAND OF SNOW TO THE REGION
LATE LAST EVENING. VISIBILITIES WERE REDUCED TO NEAR 2SM WITH
ROUGHLY A HALF INCH OF TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO FALL QUICKLY BEHIND THIS FRONT THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS UP NEAR 25-30KTS. A SECONDARY BAND OF CLOUDS WITH A
FEW FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO NORTH
CENTRAL IOWA WILL QUICKLY PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND MOST LIKELY BE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WELL
BEFORE SUNRISE. A FEW ADDITIONAL FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS BAND. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL
CLEAR OUT WHILE COLD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER THE
AREA. WIND CHILL VALUES IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES ARE APPROACHING
ADVISORY CRITERIA ALREADY THIS MORNING SO WILL BE ISSUING AN
ADVISORY FOR OUR NORTHERN COUPLE TIERS OF COUNTIES THROUGH 15Z.

THE COLD SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
00Z TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A RETURN FLOW SET UP AS EARLY AS THIS
EVENING. STRONG 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADDITION TO FAVORABLE
SOUTHWEST MIXING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON RISING INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN MOST AREAS.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING SPREADING PCPN TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS
AND MUCH OF MISSOURI AHEAD OF A LEE SLIDE SFC LOW. A SFC BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN TEXAS INTO
NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION. THIS MAY
CLIP OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES JUST AS COLD AIR DROPS SOUTH OUT OF
THE DAKOTAS. BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN CHANCES WILL BE IN OUR SOUTHEAST
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. PCPN MAY BE TRICKY...WITH A
MIX INITIALLY...THEN TURNING OVER TO SNOW AS THE COLD AIR SINKS
SOUTH.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S AND LOWS INTO
SUNDAY MORNING DROPPING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THE
EXTENDED. A FEW WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THIS FLOW...BUT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AS TIMING...MOISTURE...AND
STRENGTH OF FORCING ARE ALL TOO UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT. THE DOME OF
VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR
NORTH...HOWEVER THE FEW PASSING WAVES MAY ALLOW SOME COLD AIR TO
SEEP INTO THE AREA.

KERN

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ011-012-
     016>018.

IA...NONE.
&&

$$