Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 131147
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
647 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

The primary forecast concerns are in regards to the chance for
showers and thunderstorms through Saturday, and potential for any
severe storms.

Main features noted from the upper air charts last evening
included the following. At 300 mb, jet streaks were noted diving
south from western Canada toward the Pacific northwest and from
Wyoming into the Dakotas. Second jetstreak had a max of around 120
knots and we should see some effects of that (divergence from
right entrance region) as it tracks northeast. Models also suggest
some lower and mid tropospheric frontogenesis for mainly central
and southern parts of the forecast area until around 18z. Main
area of height falls at 500 mb was over the northern Plains and
into southern Canada, which will continue to lift northeast.
Modest 850 mb moisture was noted from the Gulf coast up into parts
of KS and even up into MN, ahead of the 850 mb cold front.

At the surface, a decent cold front continue to push through
eastern NE and southwest IA. That feature should push out of the
area by late morning. North of the boundary there is some
potential for mainly light rain, based on forecast soundings. The
deeper 850-500 mb moisture and lift shift more toward northern IA
this afternoon. Instability will be in place very early this
morning ahead of the front, but that looks weak or non- existent
by mid to late morning and early afternoon. Some instability is
possible down along the KS and MO borders later this afternoon.
Cut back high temperatures today just a bit, with most highs from
around 60 to the mid 60s. Areas near KFNB may reach near 70. There
does appear to be a narrow window of opportunity for a few strong
storms in far southeast NE and maybe the far southern part of
southwest IA late this afternoon into the early evening. Will keep
some chance of thunderstorms there at those times.

Later in the night, will keep some slight to chance POPs going
and then chances ramp up quickly (with thunder possible) across
southeast NE and southwest IA from about 4 am to 8 am local time.
Some strong storms appear possible with fairly strong lifted noted
around 700 mb on the nose of a 40 knot low level jet. Left likely
to categorical POPs much of southeast NE and southwest IA for
Saturday, decreasing from northwest to southeast during the
afternoon and evening. Later Saturday night into Sunday should be
dry. It does look windy Saturday night behind the front, but
probably not strong enough for an advisory.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

This period looks mainly dry, with rain chances possibly returning
by late Friday. Highs will be mainly upper 60s to mid 70s (with
some potentially warmer days when the mid level flow turns to
southwest later in the week). Lows should drop into the 30s Sunday
night, with mainly 40s to lower 50s the rest of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 642 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Cloud cover trends and model guidance continues pointing to MVFR
cigs at LNK within the next few hours, and probably at OAX as
well. Believe ceiling heights will increase or scatter by the
afternoon, but will build down to IFR at LNK and OAX through the
early morning hours. OFK will be VFR for the majority of the TAF
but will probably have lower MVFR or IFR cigs build into the area
by very late in the TAF. Otherwise, a few showers are possible
around LNK/OAX today but should be mostly dry.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...Barjenbruch


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