Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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838
FXUS63 KOAX 141741
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1241 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Main forecast concern will deal with timing and extent of showers
and thunderstorms in the short term.

Weak and rather diffuse surface boundary extended from low
pressure over southwest Minnesota into northern Nebraska at 07Z.
Scattered convection was occurring ahead of the boundary from
north central Iowa through northeast and central Nebraska.
An upper level trough from Minnesota into northeast Nebraska was
also helping to support the convection.

Models are similar in pushing the surface boundary a bit further
south this morning before stalling in the vicinity of the I-80
corridor in Iowa and Nebraska. The showers and thunderstorms are
expected to diminish through the morning as the upper trough moves
east of the area, but redevelop by late afternoon and evening as
instability increases along the boundary and low level jet picks
up for a time this evening. Boundary gradually washes out across
the area after midnight Tuesday with 850mb flow becoming more
westerly and also diminishing during that time.

A stronger upper trough and surface system move into the region
late Tuesday into Wednesday bringing a better chance of storms and
more significant rain to the area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Depending on model there is some chance of lingering showers in
eastern parts of the area Wednesday evening but otherwise drying
out during the night and into Thursday. The chance for more
showers and storms returns Thursday night and Friday as the next
upper trough swings through the area. Models at this time frame do
show some significant differences however with the GFS slower and
stronger with its solution. Current PoPs generally on the lower
end at this time for this period which should suffice until later
runs possibly show better agreement. Warmer temperatures also look
to return for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Main concern is possible TSRA during the late aftn/early evening
hours at KLNK. Focus for development is revolving around a nearly-
stationary frontal boundary expected to set up over portions of
southeast Neb. Areal coverage though is somewhat in question...so
have limited activity to VCTS. otherwise...low level moisture over
the region will result in MVFR cigs settling in at all TAF sites
around 12Z Tuesday morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fobert
LONG TERM...Fobert
AVIATION...DEE



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