Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 150306
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1006 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

A COMBINATION OF AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET/ISENTROPIC LIFT
ALONG WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID TROPOSPHERIC TROF...EXPECT TO
SEE INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THE
00Z OAX SOUNDING HAD 0.76 PWAT...HOWEVER KTOP HAD 1.24...SO NOT
QUITE A HIGH AS FORECAST. SHOWERS WILL VARY FROM ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AND SHOULD GENERALLY BE MOVING OUT DURING THE EARLY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS INDC A WEAK BOUNDARY EXTNDG FM SE MN
SWWD INTO NRN NEB. THIS FNT WILL MOV SEWD THROUGH THE CWA OVER THE
NEXT 18 HOURS AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY OVER ERN MT PER
AFTN WV IMAGERY/ MOVS SEWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/MN OVERNIGHT.
MOISTURE RETURN OVER THE PLAINS CONTS TO BE LIMITED...AND BELOW
SOME FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SAMPLED ON THE 12Z RAOBS
FROM KDNR/KLBF. THIS MAKES CONVECTIVE COVERAGE A BIT UNCERTAIN
OVERNIGHT. 12Z NAM/GFS POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEVER COMPLETELY
REMOVE THE MUCIN OVERNIGHT. LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING /ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN CWA/ AS THE
SHRTWV NEARS AND THIS...ALONG WITH PERSISTENT UPGLIDE ON THE 305 K
ISENTROPIC SFC WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A VERY SLOW INCREASE OF SOME
LIGHT PRECIP BY LATE EVNG. NEAR OR JUST AFTERNOON MIDNIGHT SOME
CAMS DO INDC CI TAKING PLACE...MAINLY ALONG AND E OF THE MO RIVER
AND WILL CENTER OUR HIGHEST POPS NEAR THIS TIME AND OVER THE ERN
2/3 OF THE FA WHERE THE MOISTURE PROFILE ARE THE DEEPEST ALLOWING
FOR THE WEAKEST MUCIN. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR OUR FA ON MON MRNG
WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO THE FA FOR MON/MON NIGHT. THIS
AIRMASS DOES NOT APPEAR AS CHILLY AS THE ONE ON FRI/FRI NIGHT AND
FROST DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY ON MON NIGHT...BUT SOME RIVER VALLEY
FOG MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SIMILAR TO SAT MRNG.

THE SFC HIGH WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE FA ON TUE WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS AGAIN INCREASING. MODELS...NAMELY THE GFS/GEM...INDC
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN BY TUE NIGHT FOR SOME ELEVATED
SHRA/TSRA ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS APPEARS TO BE A
BIT OVERDONE BUT WE WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF OUR SCHC POPS
TUE NIGHT LIMITING THEM TO GENERALLY ALONG AND S OF I80 AND WAIT
FOR BETTER AGREEMENT TO INCREASE. ANY CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO
WED MRNG BEFORE DEPARTING TO THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD WITH A COLD
FRONT SCHEDULED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FA ON FRI NIGHT/SAT MRNG.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED FOR THU/FRI WITH
TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 80 BY FRI. WILL INCREASE THE POPS FOR THE
FRI NIGHT TIME FRAME WITH THE MODELS INCDG MORE CONSISTENCY IN
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING THE FA ON SAT
MRNG WITH DRIER WEATHER RETURNING FOR THE SECOND HALF OF SAT AND
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 04-07Z. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH
ABOUT 11-16Z. COULD BE SOME MVFR CEILINGS WITH THE RAIN...BUT
SHOULD SCATTERED BACK TO VFR BY 15-17Z. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
INITIALLY...THEN BECOMING EAST...NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WINDS ALSO INCREASE TO ABOVE 12 KNOTS BY 11-12Z...AND
COULD SEE GUSTS BY THEN UP TO 18 KNOTS. SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS
DIMINISH BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZAPOTOCNY
SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DEWALD


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