Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 121729
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1129 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 354 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

A short-wave trough over southeast ID early this morning will
translate into the central High Plains by afternoon, yielding
strengthening low-level warm advection and frontogenetic forcing
across locations to our immediate west. In response, model
guidance is consistent in depicting the gradual eastward
development of a light-snow band presently over southeast
WY/northeast CO/NE panhandle into at least the western part of our
forecast area this afternoon into early evening. Snow amounts
should be generally light, though some local accumulations nearing
an inch are possible over Antelope and Boone counties.

We will remain under the influence of a cold, continental-polar
air mass through Saturday with daytime highs of 10 to 15 and lows
tonight ranging from -3 to 4 above.

On Saturday night into Sunday, attention turns to a short-wave
trough tracking from the northern High Plains through the mid-MO
Valley. This system will be attended by a low-level warm-air
advection regime, frontogenetical forcing, and decreasing static
stability. Model QPF is suggestive of a singular snowfall band
that traverses our area in the 06z Sunday to 18z Sunday time
frame. Currently, we will indicate one to two-inch accumulations
along the band, though we will have to monitor for the potential
for higher amounts as we approach the event. It appears we will
see warmer daytime temperatures with readings in the mid 20s to
mid 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 354 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

On Sunday night into Monday, an intense mid to upper-level low
will evolve over the upper Great Lakes with an associated arctic
front surging south through the mid-MO Valley. Lower-to mid-
tropospheric frontogenesis attendant to the front will likely
foster a band of light snow in the immediate wake of the surface
wind shift. Post-frontal winds will strengthen markedly from the
north with another cold, continental-polar air mass overspreading
the region.

Expect below-normal temperatures to linger through the middle of
next week with indications that we will see some moderation by
late week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

VFR conditions are likely through the TAF period although there
continues to be a chance of light snow at KOFK and KLNK which may
bring a period of MVFR conditions later this afternoon into the
evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mead
LONG TERM...Mead
AVIATION...Kern



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