000
FXUS63 KOAX 011728
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1128 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

FCST CONCERNS THIS MORNING REMAIN FOCUSED UPON ANTICIPATED PCPN
EVENT MONDAY AFTN THRU TUESDAY MORNING.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT INCREASING DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH NRN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE TROF WILL ALLOW FOR QUICK INTENSIFICATION AS IT PUSHES
THRU THE PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES WITH 500MB HGT FALLS AROUND 160M PROGGED
TO SPREAD ACROSS NEB/KS BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH IN TURN INDUCES
SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER ERN CO. DECENT GULF MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE
WELL UNDERWAY BY THAT TIME...AND BE IN PLACE OVER THE CNTRL CONUS
FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. NAM/GFS/ECM ARE IN
AGREEMENT FOR THE MOST PART PCPN ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOST PREVALENT
OVER NRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THRU MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

PINNING DOWN PCPN TYPE AS WELL AS POTENTIAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
AT THIS POINT ARE PROBLEMATIC AT BEST. THERMAL PROFILE/COBB OUTPUT
INDICATE A MIX IS PROBABLE THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENT GIVEN
RELATIVELY LATE ARRIVAL OF CAA NEEDED TO MAKE POSSIBLE A CHANGE
OVER TO ALL FROZEN. AT ANY RATE...DECIDED TO MAKE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO RANGE OF AMOUNTS WITH NOW 1 TO 2 INCHES GENERALLY
EXPECTED OVER THE NRN CWA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

GFS/ECM MAINTAIN A DRY FCST IN THE EXTENDED PDS...SO NO CHANGES
NEEDED THERE. REGARDING TEMPS...METEOGRAMS ADVERTISE A RATHER
GENEROUS REBOUND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING
THKNS BUILDING OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. FOR NOW...ECMMOS/MEX VALUES
SEEM REASONABLE PUSHING HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S ON FRI/SAT/SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST SFC
WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP EARLY MONDAY
ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHEAST MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...KERN