056
FXUS63 KOAX 030328
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1028 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few strong to isolated severe storms could clip portions of
  far northeast Nebraska into west-central Iowa this evening
  (10-15% chance).

- There is a 20-30% chance of spotty storms Friday afternoon
  with higher chances (50-70%) arriving for the evening into
  Saturday, but questions remain on exact timing. The severe
  weather threat looks low (less than 5% chance).

- Daily 20-30% chances of showers and storms Sunday into next
  week. The chance for hail, wind, or tornadoes looks low (less
  than 5%), but repeated rounds of thunderstorms could lead to
  a flooding threat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Fairly quiet early this afternoon with the shortwave/MCV responsible
for our earlier showers and storms exiting to our east. Looking at
water vapor imagery, additional shortwave energy was evident pushing
across the Dakotas and into MN. Guidance suggests much of this
forcing for ascent will remain just to our northeast, but could see
a few showers or storms sneak into portions of northeast NE and west-
central IA this evening as it passes through (10-15% chance). Modest
deep layer shear and instability could yield a stronger to isolated
severe storm in this area, but again, chances favor storms remaining
to our north and east.

The primary upper level ridge axis will push into the area on
Thursday and should yield a dry, but warm day with widespread highs
in the 90s and heat indices in the mid 90s to around 100, highest
near the NE/SD border and in urban areas.

Attention then turns to Independence Day with storm chances being
the main focus. An upper level trough currently sitting over
southern CA will push east into the area by Friday evening with a
surface trough/wind shift also moving in. Said wind shift will
likely be the primary focus of storm development by late
afternoon/early evening, though questions remain on exact timing of
those storms pushing through the forecast area. Current consensus
favors this line remaining mostly to our west through 9-10 PM and
pushing in after, but there are still several pieces of guidance
that are earlier (and later), so that will certainly be something to
monitor going forward. In addition, some guidance suggests we could
see spotty, diurnally-driven convection in the afternoon, though
other pieces of guidance keep us capped. Regardless, there should be
enough instability to yield an isolated strong to severe storm, but
weak shear should limit the overall hail/wind/tornado threat. That
said, precipitable water values approaching 2" and warm cloud depths
over 4 km could bring a heavy rain/localized flooding threat, but
current guidance keeps things somewhat progressive in moving
through. Otherwise, it will be a warm and humid 4th, with highs in
the upper 80s to lower 90s. However, southerly winds gusting 25-30
mph could help at least a little bit.

Showers and storms could continue off and on with a surface boundary
remaining in the area on Saturday. While the boundary will push off
to the south by Sunday afternoon, guidance suggests we`ll remain in
a fairly active pattern with various bits of shortwave energy
sliding through. As a result, we have almost a perpetual 20-30%
chance of showers and storms at any given time well into next week,
with the most likely dry time being Sunday afternoon/evening (10-15%
chance of rain). The hail/wind/tornado threat looks low with this
activity (machine learning algorithms showing a 5% chance at most)
with deep layer shear remaining pretty modest. However, the threat
of repeated rounds of storms, a flooding threat could develop at
times. Temperature-wise, we`ll be right around average heading into
next week, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and lows in the
mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1028 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

VFR conditions hold through the TAF period under mostly clear
skies. Southerly winds will increase for Thursday afternoon
with gusts to 20-25 kt. Winds will calm back down Thursday
evening.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...McCoy