000
FXUS63 KOAX 190810
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
310 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT MAIN FOCUS IN SHORT TERM.

EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED MODESTLY STRONG UPPER LOW
MOVING EWD NEAR CANADIAN/U.S. ND BORDER AT 08Z. ALTHOUGH THIS
SYSTEM WILL SEND A WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO NWRN ZONES THIS
AFTN...SRN OPEN TROUGH NEAR CA/AZ BORDER AND ANY MOISTURE/ENERGY
EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF IT APPEARS TO BE MAIN WEATHER INFLUENCE FOR
OUR FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AHEAD OF FRONT IN NRN ZONES THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY TSTM
DEVELOPMENT IN VICINITY OF WEAKENING/SLOWING FRONT NRN ZONES THIS
AFTN...APPEARS BETTER CONVECTION CHANCES WILL BE WSW ZONES THIS
EVENING AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVING AHEAD OF SRN TROUGH
INTERACTS WITH AFTN HEATING ALLOWING LATE AFTN DEVELOPMENT NEAR OR
SW OF AREA. THAT AREA HAS BEEN SUGGESTED FOR DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY
BY NAM/GFS WHICH HAS ALSO INFLUENCED THE SREF MEMBERS...FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS NOW. MOISTURE AND SHEAR...HOWEVER...ARE NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE FOR OUR FA...BUT IF WE CAN MANAGE TO HEAT TOWARD OR
ABOVE FORECAST MAX TEMPS NEAR 80...MODEST CAPES WILL DEVELOP WITH
STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HRS. MADE LTL/NO
CHANGES TO MAX TEMPS TODAY...GUID/PREV FORECAST LOOK GOOD.

IF THE EXPECTED SMALL COMPLEX OF STORMS DEVELOPS NEAR/SW OF FA
THIS EVENING...WOULD EXPECT IT TO SPREAD/DEVELOP INTO ERN/NERN
ZONES TOWARD MORNING IN SWRLY UPPER FLOW AS LOW LEVEL JET VEERS TO
SWRLY. THUS EXPANDED LIKELY POPS FROM WRN ZONES THIS EVENING ENE
THROUGH 06-07Z. RELATIVELY HIGH POPS SEEM IN ORDER THEN FOR SUNDAY
AS SRN TROUGH MOVES INTO WRN KS/WRN OK REGION. FORECAST A DIURNAL
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN LULL IN HIGHER POPS BEFORE ANY HEATING
INTERACTS WITH MID LVL MOISTURE/TROUGH TO BRING AN INCREASE IN
EXPECTED COVERAGE BY AFTN/EVENING. AIRMASS WILL BE MILD SO ANY
BREAKS IN OVC/PRECIP SHOULD ALLOW HEATING INTO 70S...ESPECIALLY
SERN ZONES. STILL COULD BE A SMALL AREA WHERE READINGS FAIL TO GET
OUT OF LOW 60S BUT ATTM CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT NOT GREAT ENOUGH
TO CHANGE HIGHS ANY NRN ZONES. FORECAST DEEP SHEAR EVEN WEAKER FOR
AREA ON SUNDAY WITH INSTABILITY LESS...SO STRENGTH OF STORMS DO
NOT CURRENTLY LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE AN ISSUE.

ALTHOUGH SRN TROUGH AND ASSOCD MOISTURE/LIFT WILL INFLUENCE MAINLY
SERN 2/3RDS OF AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH IN NRN
STEAM MOVING ALONG CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEND A
REINFORCING PUSH TO CDFNT INTO NRN ZONES LATE. THIS COULD BRING AN
ADDITIONAL SHOWER/ISOLD TSTM THREAT BEHIND MAIN PRECIP AREA WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO BE SHIFTING INTO SERN ZONES BY MONDAY MORNING.
WOULD EXPECT ALL ZONES TO DRY OUT MONDAY AFTN AND THAT PERIOD WAS
CONTINUED DRY...WITH HIGHS A DEG OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 70.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

AFTER A QUIET PERIOD TUESDAY ACTIVE WEATHER STILL ON TAP FOR AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH SETS UP
ACROSS NRN ROCKIES. WARM ADVECTION PRECIP LIKELY TO SPREAD OVER
FA TUE NGT INTO WED PERIOD AS A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH. IF PRECIP IS WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH WED...WHICH HAS BEEN SUGGESTED BY ECMWF FOR SEVERAL RUNS
NOW...TEMPERATURES COULD STRUGGLE TO REACH MEX NUMBERS WHICH WERE
A CATEGORY OR SO WARMER THAN ECMWF. FOR NOW LEFT PREV FORECAST/MODEL
BLEND IN PLACE WHICH WERE GENERALLY NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW MEX.
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WED COULD ALSO ALTER COVERAGE OF SEVERITY OF
STORMS OVER FA BUT UPPER SYSTEM STRENGTH ALONE WILL PROBABLY ALLOW
AT LEAST SOME OF THE AREA BECOMING UNDER SLIGHT RISK AREA IN WED-
MIDDAY THU PERIOD. HOW EFFICIENT/QUICKLY UPPER LOW CLEARS OUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THURSDAY WILL GREATLY INFLUENCE POPS/PSBL TSTM
STRENGTH THAT DAY...AND WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF IT LINGERING FOR
A WHILE THU...WILL PROBABLY KEEP SOME MENTION IN HWO. COOLER BUT
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THEN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARGINAL-LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS STILL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ON
SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH KOFK AROUND 00Z BUT WILL
LIKELY NOT MAKE IT TO KOMA/KLNK UNTIL AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD. SCT
SHRA OR POSSIBLY AN ISO TSRA OR TWO ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE BOUNDARY BY 00Z SUN. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINLY IN COVERAGE THROUGH 06Z WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY PRECIP
MENTION AT THIS TIME.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD