Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 261132
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
632 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(today through Thursday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Models showing relatively good agreement pushing brunt of pcpn
activity now to Wednesday/Wednesday evening time frame...thus major
POP adjustments will be needed.

At any rate...low level moisture advection into the central plains
continues through tonight with TSRA development initially over SD
where low level geostrophic wind max meets up with the srn extent of
850mb frontogenetic zone. NAM12 and GFS20 are similar showing
activity approaching the nrn CWA sometime around midnight. Forcing
along mid lyr ageostrophic axis is not as strong as previous runs
were showing...so confidence is lower for seeing hvy rainfall
accumulations over nern neb overnight. As mentioned...models are
much slower bringing forcing/brunt of pcpn thru the rest of the CWA
until Wednesday night/Thursday morning when sfc high begins building
to the south. Will probably seeing lingering activity Wednesday
afternoon over the southern CWA. For Thursday night...am inclined to
just go with token POPS on the outer periphery of the CWA given
model QPF fields are all over the place.

Otherwise...will continue near normal highs in the mid 80s and lows
in the mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Large scale flow looking a bit more active during the extended
periods with several minor impulses passing through the
region...of which  any one of them could aid in kicking off convection
over the CWA. Token POPS already in place for next weekend still
look reasonable...so no changes to POPS anticipated.

GFS and ECM are advertising rebounding temps early next week with
highs pushing into the low 90s next Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Patchy morning fog could reduce vsbys to MVFR through about 14Z at
all TAF sites. Then expect clear skies and south to southeast
winds under 10kt through the afternoon. An are of thunderstorms is
forecast to develop in the High Plains of South Dakota and move
toward eastern Nebraska after 06Z. If these hold together, KOFK
could see thunderstorms before 12Z, however have left out of this
TAF cycle as confidence of occurrence is still low.

&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...Dergan


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