Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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448
FXUS63 KOAX 280455
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1155 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 749 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Upped precip chances overnight. Storms have been very efficient
rainfall makers, and have already issued one flash flood warning.
Will do a quick assessment for training of storms, and may have to
issue a flash flood watch for some counties in southeast NE where
heavy rains fell last night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Monday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Periods of showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast
through at least Saturday as upper level system works its way
across the region toward the upper midwest.

Area looks to be on the edge of better instability to the south
and east from Kansas into Missouri this afternoon with a weak
surface boundary from northeast Kansas into south central Iowa.
Some convection already showing up on radar in this area at 19Z with
an increase in coverage expected through late afternoon with
activity spreading northeast tonight as the upper trough begins to
lift toward eastern Nebraska. Not planning on any headline for flood
issues at this time with progressive northward movement expected
this afternoon and evening with storms and better moisture
transport indicated east of the area.

Should then see a break in the wet weather for a time Saturday
night into Sunday on the back side of the trough before the next
system approaches from the northern Rockies on Monday with the
potential for another round of storms.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Northern stream energy becomes the main feature in the extended
period with main uncertainty regarding southward extent of a cold
front that moves into the region wednesday night and thursday.
Models differ in handling this upper system with GFS closing off
an upper low over Kansas on Thursday while ECMWF continues with an
open and progressive trough that drives the surface front well
south and east of the area. Have kept small pops in through the
period for now but later adjustments possible depending on model
trends.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS for KOMA...KLNK...KOFK through 06Z Sunday)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to make their way out of
the region early on in the TAF period. Expect just a few spotty
showers possible at KLNK before visibilities reduce early
Saturday morning. Precipitation should also be quick to exit
KOMA...however showers and reduced visibilities may linger at KOFK
through the early morning hours. Otherwise winds will become
westerly with VFR conditions expected by Saturday afternoon.

&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DeWald
SHORT TERM...Fobert
LONG TERM...Fobert
AVIATION...KG



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