Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 152325
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
525 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

Cold is the main concern, and have made some adjustments to our
headlines. Will start a wind chill warning for parts of northeast
NE at 10 pm and continue that until Noon Tuesday. Values there get
out of warning numbers (-30 F or colder is for wind chill warnings
in eastern NE and southwest IA) by mid morning so it may be
cancelled early or converted to an advisory. Later shifts will
determine that. The rest of the area will be in a wind chill
advisory until Noon Tuesday, this is based on numbers from the
hourly gridded forecast.

A closed low at 500 mb was near the WI/MN border this morning, and
recent water vapor imagery showed that dropping south/southeast.
That feature will drop southeast, then east, then northeast
tonight and Tuesday with heights rising in our area as a ridge to
the west builds east. At the surface, a 1050 mb plus high pressure
center was near the MT/ND border. That will build southeast
tonight and Tuesday. Clouds are problematic tonight, with models
showing variable moisture at the 925 mb level. Clouds increased
today and there were some flurries scattered about. Expect sky
cover to be variable tonight, but any clouds around could produce
a few flurries.

Other than some flurries tonight and Tuesday morning, no
precipitation is expected in the short term. Lows tonight should
be mainly 5 below to 10 below zero, highs Tuesday 7 to 12 above
and lows Tuesday night 1 above to 6 below. As the surface ridge
builds farther south Tuesday night, some warmer air will try to
move into the area from the west/southwest. That sets the stage
for a much warmer Wednesday, with highs in the 20s for most of the
forecast area but some lower 30s along and west of Highway 81.
Thursday will be even warmer with highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s,
warmest in our western counties.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

Temperatures will continue to moderate Friday, with highs in the
40s. A cold front is forecast to push down into the area late
Friday and Friday night, so Saturday should be a little cooler.
Chances for precipitation until late Saturday afternoon look
fairly low.

The pattern looks more active from Saturday night through Sunday
night, based on all available model guidance. The timing of
potential precipitation from the GFS, ECMWF and Canadian models is
very good. Details, such as the thermal profile and precipitation
amounts are not in as good agreement. The pattern suggests
potential for a mesoscale band of precipitation. We will not be
able to pin that down with certainty before Thursday or Friday. So
will address that more in later forecasts and discussions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 522 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

Some MVFR ceilings may impact sites, especially KOMA, through
tonight. Agreement among model solutions, including depiction of
current ceilings, is poor, and thus confidence in the ceiling
forecast is low. Brief snow showers may impact KOMA/KOFK for
another couple of hours, as well. Winds will remain gusty out of
the northwest for much of the night, relaxing to around 10-12kt by
daybreak and further down below 10kt by around 15-18Z. Any
lingering MVFR ceilings should improve by mid to late morning,
with VFR conditions thereafter.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for NEZ015-018-
     031>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

     Wind Chill Warning from 10 PM this evening to noon CST Tuesday
     for NEZ011-012-016-017-030.

     Wind Chill Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for NEZ011-012-
     016-017-030.

IA...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...Mayes



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