Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 291307 AAA
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
807 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

STRONG WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER ARE THE MAIN ISSUES IN THE SHORT
TERM. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

RADAR ECHOES INCREASED BY AROUND MIDNIGHT BUT MUCH OF THE PCPN WAS
ALOFT. ANY PCPN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 14Z OR SO.
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...
WITH GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. PRESSURE
GRADIENT DOES DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON SO EXPECT WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER 3 OR 4 PM.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA BY THIS EVENING THEN THAT
BUILDS SOUTH TONIGHT...ALLOWING SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL BRING IN WARMER CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 70S. WE MAY HAVE FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES AGAIN MONDAY AS RH VALUES DROP TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS
AT LEAST NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

FIRE WEATHER ISSUES MAY OCCUR AGAIN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PUMP MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 70S...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. 00Z GFS BOUNDARY LAYER
CAPE VALUES APPROACH 2000 J/KG SO SOME SEVERE STORMS APPEAR
POSSIBLE. SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING WEDNESDAY AND SHOWERS MAY LINGER MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT COMPARED TO THE GFS...BUT FOR
NOW THERE IS NO PREFERENCE AS TO WHICH WILL VERIFY BETTER.
GENERALLY USED A BLEND AT THIS POINT.

ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FEATURES LATER IN THE WEEK...THERE ARE SMALLER SCALE
DIFFERENCES WHICH RESULT IN PCPN TIMING ISSUES. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS...FOLLOWED BY SHORTWAVE
RIDGING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LATEST SFC OBS REVEALING A SEWD BOUND FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO NERN
NEB WITH WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW ALREADY UNDERWAY AT KOFK. AS FOR
KOMA/KLNK...JUST A MATTER OF TIME NOW AND EXPECT WIND SHIFT AT
BOTH TERMINALS TO BEGIN SHORTLY AFTN 13Z THIS MORNING. PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL FINALLY RELAX BY LATE THIS AFTN THEN WITH VRB05KT
THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 804 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AREAL COVERAGE OF THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE ADDITIONAL NEB COUNTIES SOUTH. ALL OF SOUTHWEST IA IS NOW
INCLUDED IN THE WARNING.

THE COMBINATION OF FINE DRY FUELS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUPPORT EXTREME FIRE DANGER OR
BEHAVIOR...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD NEW IGNITIONS OR
CONTROL PROBLEMS WITH EXISTING FIRES OVER MOST OF NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. THUS A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-
     065>067.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ034-044-045-
     050>053-065>067-078.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>033-042-043.

IA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE
FIRE WEATHER...DEE



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