Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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313
FXUS63 KOAX 071130
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
530 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 326 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

A deep upper level low currently over the MN/Ontario border is
forecast to continue to track northeast while upstream, a broad
upper level trough over the intermountain west and northern
Rockies is forecast to dig into the nation`s mid-section. A lead
shortwave moving across the High Plains will continue to aid in
producing light snow across the KS/NE border this morning as
strong, cold high pressure builds southeast from Montana into the
Central Plains bringing the coldest airmass yet of the season. Any
snowfall amounts will remain light across our southern counties
with only a trace to maybe a tenth expected. The northern edge
will quickly be eroded as dry high pressure builds southeast.
Strong cold air advection will continue throughout the day with
highs ranging from the upper teens across our north to the mid to
upper 20s in our south. Overnight lows are forecast to drop into
the single digits for most areas which will allow wind chills to
slide into the -5 to -15 range, with the coldest across northeast
Nebraska. Cold temperatures continue into Thursday with a 1044mb
high pressure ridge axis centered overhead by Friday morning.
Although we lose the wind chills, overnight lows will drop close
to 0 under the surface ridge.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 326 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

Warm air advection moves into the region ahead of the next
approaching upper shortwave trough which should push temperatures
into the lower to mid 30s for Saturday. The next piece of shortwave
energy is forecast to move into the Plains Saturday with a majority
of the forcing for ascent across South Dakota. The GFS continues to
be the most aggressive model, painting a stripe of higher QPF
across northeast Nebraska/southeast South Dakota into northern
Iowa. Have increased pops across our northern tier of counties for
this.

Another and possibly stronger arctic surge is looking more likely
into next week. EC brings -20C 850mb airmass into our CWA Tuesday
while the GFS is about 10C warmer. In any case, we trended the
temps much colder for next week, but may not be cold enough if
the EC verifies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 530 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

Expect VFR conditions through the period, with considerable mid
and high level cloudiness today. Ceilings could drop to around
6000 feet at KLNK. Otherwise look for decreasing clouds late this
afternoon and evening.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kern
LONG TERM...Kern
AVIATION...Miller



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