Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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341
FXUS63 KOAX 180532
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1132 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Friday)
Issued at 302 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

Stratus deck is creeping eastward thorugh the day, with sunny skies
behind it. Subjective 12Z upper-air analysis indicates upper-level
trough responsible for the weekend weather now over ON/northern
WI/MN, with trough axis extending back through NE/KS/CO/NM toward
the Baja.  Unusually warm 850mb temperatures continue across the
central US, with most of the region outside of the northern Great
Lakes above 0C, along with a finger of sub-0C temperatures from
the TX panhandle west/northwestward. In fact, temperatures were as
warm as nearly 12C in AB and 6C in MT. Surface ridge at 20Z was
centered over the MO river near NE/IA and into eastern KS.

Main forecast concern for the next few days is temperatures.
Temperatures at 850mb will be around 5-10C on Wednesday, with the
higher temperatures in the northwest CWA and lower in the southeast.
Other than some melting that will still need to occur in both
northeast NE and southeast NE, southwesterly low-level winds should
aid mixing and allow temperatures to pop well into the 40s and
possibly near 50.  Continued low-level warm/moist air advection will
bring enough moisture by Wednesday night to increase cloud cover,
which then should dampen the diurnal swings through Friday; in fact,
I suspect I have not quashed the diurnal swing quite enough yet.
Models and model runs are hit and miss on having enough moisture on
Thursday for drizzle, but they are rather consistent by Friday, and
have kept slight change pops with drizzle mention for Thursday night
and Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 302 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

A shortwave trough should eject across the central Plains on Friday
night/Saturday, bringing higher precipitation chances in the form of
rain, as temperatures remain warm with the system.  A second and
stronger upper-level low is then progged to kick across the southern
Plains on Sunday. Its northward extend and impacts on this area are
still in question, but if it does graze us, it is likely to also be
in the form of a colder rain, as the moisture precedes the cold
front coming through on Sunday night. Temperatures should return to
near- to slightly above-normal readings in the upper 30s to lower
40s for the rest of the forecast period. GFS/ECMWF solutions are
consistently indicating some kind of upper-level low and associated
surface low moving across the central Plains on Tuesday
night/Wednesday, bringing a swath of precipitation to the region
that is most likely to be rain in the warm sector ahead of the low
and snow and some wind behind it.  Details are still very fuzzy for
this time range, but it is a system that bears watching as it
approaches.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1127 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

Generally VFR conditions are expected however a few MVFR
visibilities could impact KLNK and KOMA overnight and into
Wednesday morning. Moisture will increase in the low levels
Wednesday evening so have introduced a hint of this after 00z/Thu
with both slightly lower visibilities and clouds.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 302 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

Something of a snow drought is in place across the area, despite
above-normal precipitation.  The total snowfall of 3.8 inches at
Omaha Eppley is the 16th lowest year-to-date (since 1886).  The
total of 3.7 inches at Lincoln is the 6th lowest year-to-date (since
1948).  The total of 8.4 inches at Norfolk is the 28th lowest (since
1921). All of these are for years with no missing data.

The Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI) year-to-date is
in the mild category at 193.  This is the 8th lowest to date.  Of
the years ranked ahead of it, two went on to be ranked near average,
and the other five are among the 10 mildest winters on record (since
1950-51).  AWSSI information can be followed at
http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/research/awssi/indexAwssi.jsp (case
sensitive).

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mayes
LONG TERM...Mayes
AVIATION...Kern
CLIMATE...Mayes



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