Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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537
FXUS63 KOAX 042324
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
624 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY.

UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM 12Z HAD THE FOLLOWING FEATURES OF INTEREST.
AT 300 MB...A JET MAX OF AROUND 105 KNOTS WAS PUNCHING SOUTHWARD
FROM WESTERN ONTARIO. AT 500 MB...THE PATTERN WAS QUITE MERIDIONAL
WITH A TROUGH ALONG 130 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE...A RIDGE ALONG 110
DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE AND A TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY DOWN INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THERMAL RIDGE AT 700 MB WAS OVER THE ROCKIES. 850 MB
MOISTURE WAS VERY LIMITED EXCEPT IN PARTS OF MEXICO AND NEAR THE
RIO GRANDE RIVER.

THE TROUGH TO OUR EAST WILL DIG WITH TIME...AS THE RIDGE TO OUR
WEST BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY MID DAY FRIDAY. SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
BECOMES QUITE INTERESTING BY SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN MOVE
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA ON THURSDAY. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE SLOW TO
RETURN...DUE TO THAT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE KEEPING
THE GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE WELL TO THE SOUTH. MODELS SHOW A AXIS
OF 850 MB DEWPOINTS OF 6-12 DEGREES CELSIUS (DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL) BY FRIDAY EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH. FOR NOW...KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AT 14 PERCENT OR LESS INTO FRIDAY EVENING. CHANCES LOOK AT LITTLE
BETTER OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY.

HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD REACH MAINLY 75 TO 80...THEN 83 TO 87 ON
FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL NOT BE AS WARM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND A
COOLER AIRMASS WITH NORTHEAST WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT A CLOSED MID TROPOSPHERIC LOW INITIALLY OVER THE ROCKIES
WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z
ECMWF WAS GENERALLY THE FASTEST SOLUTION AND THE CANADIAN MODEL
WAS THE SLOWEST. THE 12Z GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WERE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING...BUT NOT SO MUCH ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW. NEVERTHELESS...RAIN CHANCES SEEM HIGHEST FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME CONDITIONAL
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AND
LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

NO AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE TAF SITES THIS CYCLE. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...KERN



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