Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 151706
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1206 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED AROUND MIDNIGHT
GENERALLY ALONG I-80 IN LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. THESE
PULSED UP BRIEFLY BUT CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IS ONGOING ACROSS
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA.
THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS BEHIND A SFC COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AT 08Z. THE FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH ALL OF THE
CWA BY 18Z TODAY AND SO HAVE ENDED SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
AROUND THAT SAME TIME.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS AND IS
FORECAST TO BE CENTERED OVER THE CWA BY 00Z/TUE AND LINGER
OVERHEAD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD RADIATE OUT ALLOWING
LOWS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
FOR FOG CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC WINDS...ESPECIALLY
IN RIVER VALLEYS.

COOL START TO THE DAY AND WEAK RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SLOWLY
DEPARTING HIGH TUESDAY SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS DO CONTINUE TO BRING PCPN CHANCES INTO OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES IN WAA REGIME WITH VEERING NOCTURNAL LOW
LEVEL JET TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. LACK OF GOOD MOISTURE RETURN
COULD INHIBIT MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT...BUT A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND SO WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO DEAMPLIFY MID
WEEK AS IT SLIDES EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY FRIDAY.
THERE ARE A FEW SMALL WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY UNDER THIS RIDGE FOR
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
IN WAA ZONE...ESPECIALLY IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WED NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY TIME FRAME WILL BE COMPLICATED AS A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPS A COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN
ADDITION...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND REMNANTS FROM WHAT IS NOW HURRICANE ODILE ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS JUST AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR HOW THIS ALL PLAYS
OUT AND IF A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOES INDEED PAN OUT. TROPICAL
MOISTURE WOULD GIVE THE AREA POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS NORTHERN STREAM BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

CLOUDS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS ACROSS ERN NEBR AS OF 17Z SHOULD
MIX OUT/DISSIPATE THROUGH THIS AFTN WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED MUCH OF TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE AS WINDS GO
NEARLY CALM...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVER BOTTOMS. ALSO SOME WARM
ADVECTION MID CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING AND THESE WERE
INCLUDED IN 18Z TAF FORECASTS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...CHERMOK



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