Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 211950

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
250 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Sensible weather is expected to be quiet through the weekend.
Large trough over the central US will mainly bring unsettled
weather to the southern Plains and lower MS River Valley tonight
and Saturday as upstream height rises of 30-40 m overspread the
local area. This should result in increasing amounts of sun for
both Saturday and Sunday with dry weather expected. Surface ridge
axis will slowly cross the CWA over the next 36 hours with cool
overnight temperatures expected in northeast Nebraska tonight, and
in the southern CWA on Saturday night with some 30s expected.
Highs should also warm through the weekend with good mixing of the
dry air expected on both days and temperatures aloft warming.
Should see widespread 60s on Saturday and into the lower 70s

A progressive low-amplitude short-wave trough will cross into the
central and northern Plains on Monday bringing a surface trough
into the CWA. Although southern flow will increase ahead of this
system, low-level moisture return is expected to be poor with the
surface ridge to the south. Thus although lapses-rates aloft
steepen with the increasingly westerly mid-level flow,
instability is weak and convective inhibition is high. Thus the
main threat of any rain should be north of the CWA on Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

The extended range of the forecast is expected to be cool and
active next week with a number of weather system affecting the
central US. The first of these will move through the region on
Tuesday with a decent chance of showers into Tuesday night. After
a potentially dry day on Wednesday the flow buckles in the western
US and southwest flow develops over the Plains. This should to
considerable moisture return and precipitation chances starting
as early as Thursday and continuing into Friday. With multiple
periods of clouds and some rainfall temperatures will likely
average below normal for the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Extensive layer of high clouds cover eastern Nebraska and western
Iowa at the start of the period. Dry easterly flow at the surface
through the mid levels are indicated by RAP forecast soundings to
extend into the overnight hours. This will allow VFR cigs to prevail
through the period as slow moving upper trough over the southern
plains works east and surface high pressure remains across the
upper Mississippi Valley.





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