000
FXUS63 KOAX 072100
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
300 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

A COLD FRONT HAD MOVED SOUTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND
AT 20Z EXTENDED FROM EASTERN IOWA INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST KANSAS
TO LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. AN AREA OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION STRETCHED FROM SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DEALING WITH
THE LIGHT PRECIP AS IT SHIFTS SOUTH OVERNIGHT THEN TRANSITION TO
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

ONLY SCATTERED SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN REPORTED SO FAR TODAY BY
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WITH MOST PRECIP REMAINING ALOFT. SHORT RANGE
MODELS MAINTAIN THE SAME GENERAL ORIENTATION OF THE PRECIP BAND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOOON WITH A GRADUAL DRIFT
TO THE SOUTH DURING THE EVENING. THIS ORIENTATION AND LOCATION
FITS PRETTY WELL WITH A SATURATION AXIS ON THE 285-295K LAYER
AND HAVE BASED POPS FOR TONIGHT ON THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY SOUTH AND WEAKENS AFTER 06Z AS BETTER FORCING DEVELOPS
OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT MOST PRECIP TO FALL AS
SNOW WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATION BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET IS
POSSIBLE FROM AROUND OMAHA SOUTHWARD DURING THE EVENING AS THE
COLDER AIR DEEPENS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD SIDE...HOWEVER MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS. THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND PROVIDE
GOOD MIXING. SOME CONCERN WITH THE MODEL DEW POINT TEMPERTURES
AND AMOUNT OF DRY AIR THAT COULD DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME RESULTING
IN POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER HAZARD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

OTHER THAN PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES PRIMARY
CONCERN.

MODEL DISAGREEMENT PREVAILS WITH SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS PLAINS TO
BEGIN EXTENDED WITH 12Z GFS SPLITTING MUCH OF THE ENERGY THUS
PROVIDING LESS OF A CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP OVER THE FA COMPARED TO
ECMWF. THE LATTER MODEL WAS SHARPER WITH UPPER TROUGH...SO BESIDES
SPREADING MORE QPF OVER THE FA...IT WAS SLOWER WITH ASSOCD COLD
FRONT AND THUS WARMER...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.  GENERALLY STUCK WITH A
BLEND FOR THAT PERIOD WITH POPS...KEEPING THEM MOSTLY IN SLGT
CHC/CHC CATEGORY...ALTHOUGH DID RAISE MAX TEMPS SRN ZONES WHERE EVEN
GFS LENT SOME SUPPORT TO WARMER READINGS. SOME SORT OF MIX REMAINS
POSSIBLE...BUT FOR NOW KEPT IT RAIN/SNOW WITH POSSIBLE CHANGES AS/IF
MODELS BECOME MORE CONSISTENT.

APPEARS PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FA TUE NIGHT WITH COOLER
WEATHER THEN FOR MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A WARMING TREND ON
TRACK THURSDAY/FRIDAY...ACCORDING TO 12Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC ANYWAY.

MEX GUIDANCE OFTEN LAGS ON THESE WARMUPS THIS TIME OF YEAR AND THUS
STARTING SHADING TEMPERATURES TOWARD ECMWF THURSDAY/FRIDAY WHICH
COULD PROVE TOO COOL UNLESS SOME TRAILING WAVE DROPPING ON WEST SIDE
OF ERN CANADIAN TROF APPEARS IN FUTURE RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS
HAVE ALSO MOVED IN ALONG WITH GUSTY N/NW WINDS. THIS SHOULD BE THE
TREND THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS DECREASING
SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED A TEMPO GROUP FOR A MENTION OF
SNOW. CIGS MAY COME DOWN TO IFR IN ANY SNOW. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
MIX OF SLEET...BUT DO EXPECT THIS TO QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.
LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...KERN