000
FXUS63 KOAX 230445
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1145 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

WV IMAGERY THIS AFTN REVEALING THE NEXT FEATURE OF CONCERN IN THE
FORM OF AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROF OFF THE PAC NW. MEANWHILE A LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE DOME WAS CENTERED OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT POTENT PAC NW VORT MAX WILL COME ASHORE LATER
TONIGHT THEN PUSH INTO S-CNTRL CANADA LATE FRIDAY. QUITE IMPRESSIVE
500MB HGT FALLS PRECEDING THE SYSTEM NOTED.

PCPN CHANCES WED NIGHT THRU FRIDAY REVOLVING AROUND A SERIES OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES CROSSING THE REGION.

INCREASING DPVA ALONG THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL INDUCE SFC
CYCLOGENESIS THURSDAY MORNING WITH ATTENDANT THERMAL BNDRY PROGGED
TO BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE WRN DAKOTAS TO WRN KS. SFC BNDRY
BEGINS SHIFTING EWD THEN AS A WARM FRONT AND IS PROGGED TO REACH THE
CWA THUR NIGHT/FRI MORNING FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SWEEPING IN
FRIDAY AFTN. MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE WARM FRONT. AS OF NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
TSTM INITIATION WED NIGHT WILL BE FOCUSED SOMEWHERE NEAR SW SD WHERE
LLVL THETA-E CONVG/2" PRECIP WATER WILL BE FOCUS. EXPECT COMPLEX
WILL MOVE ALONG THE SD/NEB AND SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE NRN CWA
THUR MORNING. NEXT ROUND OF PCPN THEN ON FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT SWEEPING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. GIVEN HIGH ENVIRONMENT
MOISTURE CONTENT...APPEARS THERE WILL BE A RELATIVELY HIGH RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION MAINLY FROM NE NEB INTO W-CNTRL IA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MODELS SUGGESTING NO ACTIVE WEATHER TO CONTEND WITH IN THE EXTENDED
PDS. LARGE SCALE PATTERN ADVERTISED TO BECOME STAGNANT WITH A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS AND UPSTREAM RIDGE SITUATED OVER
THE ROCKIES. WITH NW FLOW PREVAILING ALOFT...EXPECT MAX TEMPS
OVERALL TO HOVER NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 80S

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. CLOUD DEBRIS FROM CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVING INTO NW
NEBRASKA AT 05Z WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA BY 12Z
AND LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. INCREASING MID CLOUDS AFTER
00Z AS WARM ADVECTION SPREADS EAST FROM THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...FOBERT