058
FXUS63 KOAX 202323
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
623 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

Warm and very windy conditions this afternoon with surface winds
just below advisory criteria. Wind gusts this past hour have
reached 30 to 40 mph, and this will continue for another few hours
late this afternoon. When the sun goes down around 635 pm, we
should lose the high end of the wind gustiness, but sustained
southerly winds overnight still remain high at 20 to 28 mph.

Next concern overnight will be increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms as the first southern-latitude trough, now exiting
the TX panhandle, moves into the region. Moisture will be increasing
tonight, along with a slight increase in the low level jet.
Latest ESRL HRRR/Operational HRRR/Rap suggest that most of the
evening should be dry, so Friday night football games will
probably not be affected. However, by 04-05z, convection chance
should increase, eventually reaching 40-60% across the central
part of the CWA in a SW/NE corridor through daybreak. Overnight
lows remain very mild lower to mid 60s.

Whatever convection develops overnight could be lingering in the
morning as it lifts northeast of the area. At the same time, the
cold front will begin moving in from the northwest, which will
help trigger additional showers/rumbles of thunder from northwest
to southeast through the day. Cold front crosses the MO river by
19-20z, and should begin to clear the forecast area to the east by
22-01z. SPC has the extreme southeastern FA in a slight risk of
severe storms with wind the primary hazard. Thus, while there will
instability over the area tomorrow with a 40-80% chance of showers
and storms, right now, the best severe threat appears to be
setting up southwest IA and a handful of counties in southeast
NE, but a higher threat of severe just east and southeast of our
counties. Precip should clear the forecast area altogether in the
early evening.

Return southerly flow sets up quickly behind the front for Sunday,
but another cold front arrives by daybreak Monday, which shifts
our winds back to the northwest. Dry weather for both Sunday and
Monday with near normal highs in the mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

Colder air behind the previously mentioned front settles in for
Tuesday, with much below normal highs in the mid to upper 50s. A
brief slight warmup occurs on Wednesday with temps back to the mid
to upper 60s. However, another sharp cold front arrives early
Thursday. This brings a small chance of rain to the forecast area,
with h85 temps making a strong push for below zero values by
daybreak Friday. If any precip lingers south of I80 early Friday
morning, it could end as rain/snow mix with H85 well below zero.
Sharply colder temps into the area for Friday with Highs in the
upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

Early-evening water vapor imagery depicts a shortwave trough
lifting northeast away from the mid-MO Valley with an upstream
system situated over KS. This latter disturbance will continue
northeast into the area tonight, contributing to the development
of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, generally between
06z and 12z. On Saturday, a cold front will move through the KOFK
area by mid morning, and KOMA and KLNK by mid afternoon. MVFR
ceilings appear likely ahead of the front, along with scattered
showers and thunderstorms. South winds will veer to northwest with
the passage of the front.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DeWald
LONG TERM...DeWald
AVIATION...Mead