000
FXUS63 KOAX 170451
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1151 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

LET THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 8 PM BUT A FEW SITES MAY BE AROUND
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. TREND WILL BE FOR WINDS TO
DECREASE THOUGH AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. DROPPED LOWS A FEW
DEGREES AND INCREASED CLOUDS SOUTH...OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

FRONT IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND
TEMPS BEHIND IT HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S WITH 30S NOT TOO FAR
AWAY. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THUS
WILL CONTINUE THE WIND AND FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...BUT WILL TRIM BACK A FEW COUNTIES WHERE
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS. IT`S ALSO WINDY
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL PROBABLY
LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY STILL BE
A FEW SPRINKLES IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THROUGH 6PM.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS DECREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. THE NEXT WAVE OF INTEREST...CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
4 CORNERS REGION SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION ACROSS KANSAS AND
MISSOURI...WHILE NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEAST. OVERALL
POOR MIXING ON THURSDAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED.

A WEAK WAVE MOVING OUT OF NORTHWEST FLOW COULD TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY IN OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES...BUT BETTER FORCING EXISTS FURTHER NORTH. RETURN BREEZY
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WHICH SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO THE
MID/UPPER 60S. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH IS FORECAST
TO ARRIVE AT PEAK HEATING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY FELT THE
NAM WAS TOO FAST WITH IT`S FRONT ARRIVING ABOUT 6 TO 12 HOURS TOO
SOON. WILL KEEP SATURDAY MORNING DRY...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASING ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT DRIFT
SOUTHWARD TOWARD I80. THERE IS SOME INSUPDATE ISSUED AT 530 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

WINDS SHOULD DECREASE LATER BUT BASED ON CURRENT OBS WENT AHEAD
AND PUT OUT A WIND ADVISORY FOR A FEW HOURS. SOME WINDS ARE
SUSTAINED AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUST OVER 40 MPH. ALSO LIGHT SHOWERS
OF RAIN AND SNOW NOTED NOW FROM KOFK TOWARD KSUX AND KTQE. SCT
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES MAY OCCUR TOWARD KOMA AND KLNK.
TABILITY...AND GIVEN SEASONAL TRENDS...THERE`S PROBABLY AT LEAST
A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE IS SOMEWHAT WEAK. MODEL DISCREPANCIES MANIFEST BY
SUNDAY AND BEYOND AS GFS IS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT MOVING
SOUTH...BUT ECMWF IS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER...WHICH WOULD KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES WELL INTO SUNDAY AND EVEN INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY UPSTREAM KICKER...AM INCLINED TO GO
WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE ECMWF. BY MONDAY...GFS
HINTS AT ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW OVERALL. RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN FOR TUE. THERE IS A WEAK
WAVE DEPICTED BY BOTH MODELS...THUS COULD BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SOMETHING DEVELOPING IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES ALSO WARM
BACK IN TO THE MID/UPPER 70S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

MVFR CIGS FL015-025 EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND DECREASE
TOWARD 15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BETWEEN
15-18Z. NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS INITIALLY 15-20KTS
SUSTAINED GUSTS 20 TO 25KTS...GRADUALLY DROPPING TO UNDER
15KTS...THEN UNDER 12KTS AFTER 09Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY