Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 042054
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
254 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

Warmer air has started to spread back into the area this afternoon
on the backside of the upper trough now moving into the mid
Mississippi Valley. The warmer temperatures and full sunshine
today has eroded a good part of the snow field located over parts
of southeast Nebraska from yesterdays event. Warm advection is
expected to continue across the area tonight into Monday in
advance of a cold front that will usher in a blast of arctic air
by Wednesday.

Latest models have the cold front moving through the area Monday
afternoon with cold air spreading in behind the front on gusty
northwest winds through Wednesday. An upper trough moving out of
the northern Rockies will bring another chance of snow to mainly
southern parts of the area on Wednesday. Southeast Nebraska will
have the best chance of snow with amounts of 1-2 inches possible
near the Kansas border decreasing to less than an inch north
toward Lincoln and Omaha. The main surge of arctic air will then
follow behind the upper trough on Wednesday night and Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

The arctic air will be the main story in the extended period and is
expected to be over the area from Wednesday night into Friday
before some slight warming returns for the weekend as upper flow
becomes more zonal. The combination of warm advection and a weak
short wave will bring another chance of some light snow to parts
of the area Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

IFR stratus deck continues to every so slowly work southeast
across the area, and the edge is very near the KOMA/KLNK
terminals. We will likely see this deck in there for a couple more
hours this afternoon before VFR conditions set in. The only other
concern is how far the clouds move to the east tonight as
southeast winds develop. We will keep them out of KOMA for now,
but it may be close overnight. We may also see some fog develop
on the western edge of the stratus deck overnight, which could
affect the KOMA TAF tonight, but confidence is to low to include
currently.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fobert
LONG TERM...Fobert
AVIATION...Boustead


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