


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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412 FXUS63 KOAX 020815 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 315 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and storms over north central and central Nebraska will track east early this morning before dissipating in the late morning hours. PoPs peak at 40 to 60% early this morning before tapering off in the late morning. - Mix of clouds and sun today with a low end (<15%) chance for showers and storms mainly along and northeast of a line from near Cedar to Shelby counties. - Breezy and dry conditions are expected for Thursday. 50 to 70% chance of showers and storms Friday evening with windy conditions. Active pattern continues through the weekend into next week with daily 20-30% PoPs. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 315 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 .SHORT TERM.../Today through Thursday Night/ 8z H5 RAP objective analysis shows a shortwave trof currently tracking across central and eastern Nebraska. Despite the weak forcing, convection has managed to develop across north central into central Nebraska , likely fueled by an 850 mb low level jet overspreading much of central Nebraska and western Kansas. Instability rooted aloft remains marginal across northeast Nebraska, with BUFKIT soundings showing anywhere from 500-700 J/kg of skinny MUCAPE. 0-6 km bulk shear is also fairly weak, at 20 to 25 kts. CAM guidance suggests this convection will push east southeast into portions of northeast and east central Nebraska early this morning. With the atmospheric instability and shear being marginal, could see a strong storm or two with gusty winds or hail, but overall thinking is that the severe threat will largely wane with eastward extend. PoPs peak at 40 to 60% across portions of Platte, Butler, and Seward counties early this morning before tapering off to a 15-25% chance by mid morning today as convection reaches the Missouri River valley. Otherwise, expect to see some lingering clouds mixed with sun this afternoon as highs reach the upper 80s to low 90s. A few areas may see heat indices reach the mid 90s as well given the dew points will be higher compared to yesterday. Winds will also be slightly breezy from the south southwest. Northwesterly flow aloft will result in another subtle H5 wave riding the ridge along the Dakotas and passing close to the forecast area during the afternoon and evening hours. Mid level forcing looks rather weak to non-existent, but better forcing is seen looking within the H8 to H7 layer, most likely driven by a weak LLJ which festers across the forecast area for much of the day. The strongest forcing appears to be located north and east of the forecast area in the FSD and DMX CWAs. CAMs show widely differing solutions for this activity, so have left PoPs at unmentionable (<15%) along our shared border with FSD and DMX. If forcing is strong enough for storms to develop, they would most likely be rooted aloft given BUFKIT soundings show much of the instability above a subtle warm later. Coupled with 30-40 kts of bulk shear, some may become strong to severe with some hail and wind being the primary threats. The SPC has a marginal risk of severe weather mainly along and northeast of a line from near Cedar to Shelby counties. Lows tonight will be in the mid 60s to low 70s. H5 shortwave across the Rockies area will induce a sfc low across eastern Colorado and Wyoming for Thursday. This sfc low will result in the pressure gradient tightening across much of Nebraska leading to breezy southerly winds. Highs will reach the low to mid 90s under mostly sunny skies. Some areas may see heat indices reach the upper 90s to near 100F briefly in the afternoon. A few showers are possible near the Nebraska/Kansas border, but much of the activity is expected to stay in Kansas so have not deviated from latest NBM run which indicates dry conditions across OAX. Lows Thursday will be in the low to mid 70s. .LONG TERM.../Friday through Tuesday/ The H5 shortwave will continue to amplify and eject to the east toward South Dakota and the Nebraska Panhandle on Friday, while the sfc low tracks toward central South Dakota. Expect a windy day across much of the forecast area resulting from the tightening pressure gradient and potentially mixing into a low level jet. The front coupled with some low level theta-e advection will lead to widespread showers and storms across much of our service area for Friday. PoPs currently peak Friday evening into early Saturday morning at 50 to 70%. Regarding the severe potential, still see some low end probabilities (around 5% or less) from the GEFS and Euro machine learning algorithms with this activity. The potential also exists for efficient rainfall processes with this activity as PWATs from deterministic output show around 1.75 to 2 inches coupled with warm cloud depths reaching around 4,000 meters. The sfc front lingers on Saturday, eventually pushing through the forecast area early Sunday morning. Thus, PoP chances linger into Saturday (30-50%). The active pattern continues Sunday through at least the first half of the upcoming week with shower and storm chances largely driven by several H5 waves riding along a somewhat zonal flow. This has resulted in the NBM extended having PoPs at 20 to 30% from Sunday onward for much of the forecast area. Highs in the extended remain warm with values in the mid 80s to low 90s aside from Sunday and Monday where temperatures slightly cool to the low to mid 80s behind the frontal boundary. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 946 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Scattered thunderstorms are possible early Wednesday morning and the 30% chance of them affecting the KOFK area has shifted farther south. I would put that 30% chance at KOMA (14Z) with lesser chances at KOFK (9Z) and KLNK (14Z). Otherwise, expect VFR conditions with southerly winds at 5-15 knots. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Castillo AVIATION...Nicolaisen