Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 031732
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1232 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MORNING FORECAST UPDATES WERE MADE TO TWEAK STRATUS DECK AREA AND
ACCOUNT FOR AFTERNOON HEATING CUMULUS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH
THICKER CLOUDS. ALSO TRIMMED LOW POP AREA IN THE FAR WESTERN PART
OF THE CWA WITH HEATING AND SPOTTY AIRMASS SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

TODAY

LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONSISTING OF NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CNTRL
PLAINS WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE ANCHORED OFF THE WEST COAST. AT THE
SFC...GOES DPI/SFC OBS REVEALING WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS
PREVAILING ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.

MAIN TOPIC OF INTEREST IS DURATION OF CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH AFTN
HIGHS. TIME-SECTION PER LATEST HRRR/RAP13...HIRES ARW/NMM ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT LOW CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS EARLY THIS AFTN. WITH GFSLAMP SUPPORTING THIS
TOO...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PRETTY MUCH
PREVAIL THRU THE DAY OVER THE CWA. AS FOR TEMPS...CLOUD COVER
COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION FILTERING IN FROM
THE NORTH WILL LIKELY HINDER TEMPS FROM PUSHING MUCH PAST 80 OVER
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WHICH IS REFLECTED WELL BY BOTH MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

NOTE...HAVE INCLUDED SLGT AFTN POPS OVER THE WRN IN THE EVENT
ISOLATED TSTMS DEVELOP ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS/INCREASING LLVL LAPSE
RATE SETTING UP PER THE HRRR/RAP13.

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT RESULTING IN
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS HIGH PRESSURE AREA SHIFTS
EAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING WHICH SHOULD PUSH
TEMPS INTO THE MID 80S. THERE IS A VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE COMING
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ANY SMALL
PRECIP CHANCES MAY REMAIN JUST WEST ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
STATE. THIS WAVE COULD BE FAR ENOUGH EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT TO
BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA...BUT DON`T BELIEVE
IT WOULD MAKE IT INTO WESTERN IOWA. THAT WAVE COULD STILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSHOWERS TO EASTERN NEBRASKA SUNDAY...WITH
TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A STRONGER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVED ONTO THE
PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WITH SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN
ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TO 50 TO 70
PERCENT DURING THIS TIME. RAIN WILL MOVING OUT OF AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 MONDAY EVENING...THEN DRY CONDITIONS REMAINDER OF
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AGAIN
ACROSS THE PLAINS. RETURN FLOW SET UPS ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM THAT BRINGS RAIN CHANCES BACK BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MVFR CIGS ARE LIFTING AT KOFK AND ARE CLOSE AT KLNK. WILL LEAVE
MVFR MENTION IN FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AT KOFK...THEN VFR CIGS AT
BOTH KOFK AND KLNK FL035-050 THIS AFTERNOON. SOME PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZAPOTOCNY
SHORT TERM...DEE/DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY


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