Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 180856
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
256 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(today through Monday)
Issued at 256 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

Early morning surface analysis indicated that the weak cold front
had settled south of the CWA in northern MO/KS. Post frontal
surface ridge axis extended from the central Dakotas into western
NEb, and this is expected to develop across the FA today. Post
frontal airmass is still very mild, and although mixing is only
expected to around 900 mb today, we should still see highs in the
60s CWA wide. Return flow gets going tonight as the surface ridge
shifts east and surface pressures fall in the lee of the Rockies.
Although we will see clouds increase ahead of the current
southern CA system, models indicate that temperatures aloft will
warm a couple of degrees C on Sunday, and this should allow for
highs to climb back into the mid and upper 60s.

Moisture continues to increase on Sunday night associated with a
40-50 kt nocturnal low-level jet. Isentropic omega is indicated
overnight with steepening mid-level lapse rates. This should lead
to scattered showers, and potentially a rumble of thunder
overnight with the band pushing east on Monday morning. It now
appears that once this initial band of showers pushes off to the
east we will likely be dry during the afternoon with decreasing
clouds. This should allow for some decent mixing ahead of the 850
mb trough, and potentially allow for some record highs on Monday.


.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 256 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

The warm weather is expected to continue into the first half of
the extended. Additional record highs are expected on Tuesday as
the 850 mb flow becomes westerly with temperatures increasing to
12-15C across the CWA. This will likely yield highs in the upper
60s east to the mid 70s west. Although deep mixing is not expected
on Tuesday, the westerly component to the surface to 850 mb winds
will likely lead to dew points dropping in the afternoon and some
very high fire danger, although winds should be fairly low.
Although another weak boundary does move through on Tuesday night,
highs in the 60s again look likely for Wednesday.

Late in the extended period of the forecast all global models do
indicate a seasonably strong progressive trough to cross the
Plains. Models and ensembles have varying solutions on this
system, but all seem to move a strong surface low across the
Plains during this period. How this system will impact the CWA is
still a bit unclear given the spread in guidance, but confidence
is growing that a system will affect the Plains. For now we will
indicate cooling temperatures for next Thu/Fri with increasing
chances for precipitation with ra/sn in the north and ra/iso tsra
in the south.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1105 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Expect VFR conditions through the period. Some patchy fog is
possible around sunrise, but will not mention in the TAFs at this
time. Some low clouds or fog could develop by late Saturday night.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boustead
LONG TERM...Boustead
AVIATION...Miller



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