000
FXUS63 KOAX 230537
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1237 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong southwesterly winds gusting 35 to 55 mph will drop off
  this evening as winds turn northwesterly.

- Showers and storms are expected (40-75% chance) late this
  evening, primarily south of the Platte River. A few could be
  strong and produce gusty winds.

- Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected
  Thursday through the weekend, though confidence is somewhat
  low on exact timing of any given round. Severe weather will be
  possible at times.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

We`re seeing strong southwesterly winds out ahead of a cold
front moving across eastern Nebraska into western Iowa this
afternoon. As the cold front moves through, winds shift to the
northwest and drop off fairly dramatically in speed. Skies have
cleared fairly well, but because of the wind blowing dust has
kept hazy skies across our area. We`re seeing temperatures in
the low-to-mid 70s, which should still increase a few more
degrees this afternoon.

The frontal boundary stalls across southeastern Nebraska this
evening providing a focus for thunderstorm development, with
precipitation chances increasing after sunset with the arrival
of the upper-level trough and the low-level jet bringing
providing a source of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Expect
showers and thunderstorms to stay confined mostly south of the
Platte River. CAMs don`t show much organization with these
showers or thunderstorms which supports our thoughts that severe
potential is low, but steep lapse rates could support a damaging
wind gust or two. Rain should move out of our area by 7 AM
Tuesday morning.

Tuesday and Wednesday weather stays relatively quiet as broad
ridging builds over the Central Plains, though shortwaves do
ride over the top leading to a slight chance of showers
Wednesday afternoon and evening. Temperatures stay fairly
seasonable, with highs on Tuesday in the 60s to low 70s, and
Wednesday in the 60s.

Thursday through Sunday will be the time period to watch for
potential for severe weather. There are a couple potent low
pressure systems that will be moving through the central CONUS
that will likely bring severe weather to a good portion of the
region that could potentially impact at least some of our area.
The first system looks like it could arrive as early as Thursday
evening. Latest models have been trending earlier with this
first system, now bringing it in as early as Thursday evening
when before we were thinking it was more of a Friday system. It
could still arrive as late as Friday morning. As we get closer
we`ll have a better idea on the timing, but it seems like it
very will could bring a chance for all modes of severe weather
including damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes.

The second system has sped up as well, now looking like it could
start Saturday night and continue into Sunday. The timing of
this system reminds me a bit of the system from last week where
we had storms roll through overnight with the bulk of the severe
weather actually occurring under the surface low the following
day. It`s still a ways away, but something to watch.

Machine Learning models from CSU shows potential for severe
weather for our area Friday, Saturday, and Sunday with these
systems. SPC has highlighted parts of our area with a 15% risk
for Friday and Saturday. I would certainly watch the forecast
for this time period as it approaches.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms ongoing across
portions of southeast NE will persist for the next two to three
hours, so a TEMPO -TSRA group will be maintained at KLNK.
Current indications are that the convection will remain to the
south of KOMA. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to
prevail with northwest winds increasing to 15 to 20 kt with
gusts of 25 to 30 kt by 15z at the terminal locations. Winds
will subsequently diminish by Tuesday evening.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...Mead