Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 171114
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
614 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very high fire danger across much of the area this afternoon,
  and mainly over northeast Nebraska Monday and Tuesday.

- Colder today with tonight`s lows dropping to 15 to 20. Wind
  chill values in the single digits to around 12 for the Monday
  morning commute and start of school.

- Temperatures warm back into the 60s by Tuesday before trending
  cooler again. Best precipitation chances are next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Today and tonight:

A shortwave trough currently over the ND-MN Red River Valley
will dive south through the mid-MO Valley this afternoon, while
a preceding surface cold front sweeps through the area this
morning. Cold advection and resultant steepening of low-level
lapse rates within the post-frontal environment will yield
strong north-northwesterly winds with gusts up to 30 to 35 mph
from late morning through this afternoon. A few of the CAMs
indicate low-reflectivity structures moving south through the
area today with associated forecast sounding data indicating a
small area of positive buoyancy developing at the top of the
boundary layer. Current thinking is that we will probably only
see some deeper stratocumulus development in those areas, though
an isolated shower cannot be ruled out.

Temperatures will be cooler today with highs ranging from the
upper 30s near the SD border to mid 40s along the KS border.
Despite these cooler readings, the strong winds combined with
minimum relative humidities of 23 to 30 percent will result in
very high fire danger at many locations this afternoon.

Both clouds and winds will diminish tonight as surface high
pressure builds into the region. As such, the setup will
enhance radiational cooling potential with the forecast lows of
15 to 20 reflecting the low side of model guidance. Associated
wind chills in the single digits to around 12 are forecast for
the Monday morning commuter and start of school.

Monday and Tuesday:

Midlevel heights are forecast to build across the region early
next week with a strengthening low-level warming pattern
scouring the cold air mass arriving later today. Highs in the
40s to low 50s Monday are expected to warm into mainly the 60s
by Tuesday. Owing to the continued dry conditions, very high
fire danger is forecast both days, mainly across northeast NE.

Wednesday into next weekend:

The 17/00z global ensembles suggest that a northwest flow
pattern over the north-central U.S. as of mid-week will become
increasingly zonal ahead of a prominent midlevel trough, which
is expected to move into the Interior West at some point this
weekend. In the low levels, the models are now in better
agreement in suggesting that a cooler air mass will spread south
into the area Wednesday with highs in the 40s and 50s. From
Thursday into the weekend, the models offer varying scenarios
in the movement of a low-level baroclinic zone over the central
part of the nation, which has implications on temperatures and
precipitation chances. Furthermore, there are model differences
in the movement and intensity of the above-mentioned, western
U.S. trough this weekend.

In short, confidence in the temperature and precipitation
forecast is low from Thursday into at least early next weekend.
By Sunday, there is a more unified model signal for widespread
precipitation potential. Some snow appears possible, especially
across northern parts of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 600 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

A deck of MVFR/low VFR stratus will work its way into the
region from the north/northeast over the next few hours. Current
timing has clouds building into northeast Nebraska and
southwest Iowa (KOFK and KOMA) by 15Z. There is considerable
uncertainty with exact timing. Short range models are also
struggling with cloud ceilings, with the majority of short term
guidance have a high bias. Ceilings in TAFs have been lowered
to account for MVFR observations across northwest Iowa and
eastern South Dakota. Stratus is expected to start breaking up
by 17Z and skies should clear by 00Z.



&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Darrah


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