Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 260527
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1127 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

RELATIVELY WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA...AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT.  SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS MOST OF THE
CONUS...CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES-MS RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHERN
PLAINS REGIONS.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR
ANALYSIS AT 20Z OVER EASTERN MT/WESTERN DAKOTAS AND MOVING
SOUTHEASTERLY.  UP TO 145KT JET WAS REINFORCING BEHIND THE
TROUGH...WHILE UP TO 170KT JET EXTENDED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FROM THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.  850MB LOW
WAS CENTERED IN NORTHERN QB...WITH SECONDARY LOW IN THE OH RIVER
VALLEY...AND A FEW TROUGHS UPSTREAM IN CANADA/NORTHERN ROCKIES.
SURFACE LOW AT 20Z WAS CENTERED IN WESTERN ND...WITH COLD FRONT
EXTENDING THROUGH WESTERN SD/WESTERN NEB TOWARD THE KS/CO BORDER.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS AMOUNT AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.  WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
AREA...AND CLOUDS INCREASING THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A
WARM START AND BE SLOW TO FALL NEAR THE SURFACE UNTIL THE FRONT
ARRIVES.  REGIONAL 12Z OBS INDICATE A POCKET OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR TOP-DOWN
SATURATION TO OVERCOME THIS EVENING.  BELIEVE PRECIPITATION WILL
BEGIN IN NORTHEAST NEB AROUND 00-03Z...BEGINNING PRIMARILY AS RAIN
BEFORE WET-BULBING TEMPERATURES DROP TEMPERATURES IN THE PROFILE TO
SUPPORT A RAIN-SNOW MIX LATER IN THE EVENING...AND LIKELY SNOW AFTER
06Z.  AS PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING...EXPECT SIMILAR TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO RAIN/SNOW TO
SNOW...WITH SNOW REACHING WESTERN IA AFTER MIDNIGHT.  PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT IN EASTERN NEB...WITH A GRADIENT IN WESTERN
IA TO HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN CENTRAL IA AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DESCENDS THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO IA.  FORECAST SNOW
ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS RANGE FROM JUST A TENTH OR TWO IN EASTERN
NEB...TO AROUND A HALF INCH IN THE EASTERNMOST CWA.  AMOUNTS ARE
SENSITIVE TO THAT CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE IN WESTERN IA IF RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW
MORE QUICKLY TONIGHT.

IN WAKE OF THE SNOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR FALLING ON WEDNESDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION
WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY IN THE MORNING. WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST POST-
FRONTAL WINDS...IT WILL FEEL LIKE A BLUSTERY DAY.  SURFACE HIGH
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF WELL INTO THE TEENS...BUT RETURN FLOW
COMMENCES ON THANKSGIVING DAY...BRINGING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
TEMPERATURES TRENDING TOWARD MILDER READINGS.  WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY...WITH BLACK FRIDAY EARLY-MORNING TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID-20S AND TEMPERATURES RISING QUICKLY INTO THE 40S AND 50S
ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER SUSTAINED WEST TO
SOUTHWEST LOW- AND MID-LEVEL FLOW AND NEARLY ZONAL JET.  BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE US-CANADA
BORDER IS PROGGED TO DRAG A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL
US...BRINGING ABRUPTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.  STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT SETTLES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER
MIDWEST BY SUNDAY EVENING...WHICH SHOULD MAKE FOR A COLD SUNDAY
NIGHT.  AGAIN...RETURN FLOW INTO THE PLAINS WILL BRING WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND RECOVERING TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES DURING THE
FIRST FEW HOURS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SO
PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD REMAIN AS RAIN FOR THE MOST PART. A MIX
OF RA/SN CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AS WE CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DROP SFC TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MARCH THROUGH THE AREA...AND HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH
KOFK. WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL GUST AT OR ABOVE 30KTS AND
THESE GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...KERN



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