Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 220420
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1120 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

ALTHOUGH SMALL THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES ARE PREVALENT ACROSS PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE SHORT TERM...MOST LOCATIONS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN DRY AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY FOCUS.

UPPER RIDGE HAS BUILT NEWD ACROSS MID MO VALLEY WITH 12Z SOUNDINGS
FROM OAX/LBF/ABR/TOP INDICATING A WELL MIXED ELEVATED LAYER HAD
SPREAD OVER FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A STRONG CAP THIS
EVENING AND INHIBIT PROBABLY EVERYTHING TONIGHT BUT SOME VERY
ELEVATED REMNANT ACTIVITY THAT MAY HOLD TOGETHER AS IT ROLLS OFF
THE HIGHER ELEVATION OF NEBR/KS THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR TRENDS
FOR POSSIBLE LAST MINUTE PRECIP INCLUSION. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
ATTEMPTING TO WORK INTO WRN ZONES COULD ALLOW LOWS TO DROP A
LITTLE MORE THAN PREV FCST IF IT WOULD SPREAD A BIT FARTHER E...BUT
FOR NOW MADE LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO LOWS TONIGHT WITH SOME MID/UPPER
70S POSSIBLE SERN ZONES. STRONGER WAVE LIFTING ACROSS DAKOTAS THIS
EVENING WILL SEND A WEAK COOL FRONT INTO NERN NEBR IA LATE
TONIGHT AND SLOWLY THRU THE FA ON TUESDAY. COOLING INITIALLY NOT
VERY GOOD DIRECTLY BEHIND FRONT AND THUS READINGS COULD PROBABLY
STILL REACH MID 90S AS FAR NORTH AS NEAR HIGHWAY 30 DESPITE THE
SHIFT TO NORTH WINDS BEFORE 18Z THERE. CURRENT PLACEMENT OF HEAT
ADVISORY LOOKS OK AS DEW POINTS COULD LOWER A BIT IN NRLY FLOW
DESPITE AIRMASS WARMING. NO CHANGES THERE. LEFT IN SMALL POPS FROM
LATE AFTN INTO THE EVENING FAR SOUTHERN ZONES EITHER DUE TO
COMBINATION OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND STRONG HEATING LATE IN THE
AFTN OR A DEW POINT FRONT TRAILING COOL FRONT OVERCOMING STRONG
CAP. HOWEVER...DID TRIM POPS SOMEWHAT AS DOUBTS PERSIST.

DRIER AIR AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MORE
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS TO THE FA WITH LITTLE CHANGES MADE. THETA E
ADVECTION COMMENCES LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS MOIST LAYER IN
H85-H7 BEGINS SHIFTING TOWARD FA. COVERAGE QUESTIONABLE AS UPPER
HEIGHTS REMAIN HIGH AND WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES COULD BEGIN
SHIFTING OVER AREA AT THAT SAME TIME. ALTHOUGH COULD FORESEE POPS
NEEDING TO BE SPREAD FARTHER SE THURSDAY...AT THIS TIME KEPT THEM
IN NERN NEBR CLOSER TO MID LEVEL CAP/S EDGE. IF CONVECTION AND/OR
DEBRIS SPREADS FARTHER SE COULD SEE THE NEED IN TRIMMING MAX TEMPS
A BIT...BUT FOR NOW NO CHANGES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

LEFT IN POPS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THU NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT
AS WARM FRONT SETS UP NEAR MO RIVER FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COOL FRONT
FRI NIGHT. WOULD THINK UNLESS CLOUDS/PRECIP ARE WIDESPREAD ON
FRIDAY THAT HIGHS SHOULD REACH AT LEAST 90 WEST OF THE RIVER AND
ADJUSTED UP A LITTLE FROM BLEND. FIRST COOL FRONT SHOULD KNOCK
SEVERAL DEGREES OFF HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A REINFORCING
FRONT PROVIDING EVEN MORE COOLING BY THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. FOR
NOW LEFT FORECAST DRY WITH SECOND FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN UNCERTAINTY
WILL DEAL WITH TIMING OF A WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WIND
SHIFT AS IT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA. FLOW REMAINS WEAK
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DRIER AIR GRADUALLY SPREADING INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ034-043>045-050>053-
     065>068-078-088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-079-
     080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...FOBERT


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