Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 271708
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1208 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD...WITH
PCPN CHANCES GENERALLY 14 PERCENT OR LESS.

CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB THAT WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WAS OVER THE SERN CORNER OF  AT 00Z WITH AN 80-90 KNOT JET
STREAK AT 300 MB NOTED SOUTH OF THE LOW NEAR THE PD/SD BORDER.
MAX 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS AT 500 MB WERE ESTIMATED AT AROUND 70
METERS. WATER VAPOR LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED THAT THE LOW
CONTINUED TO DROP SEWD AND WAS OVER NRN MN. A LITTLE KG LUNG WAS
NOTED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE COLD POCKET. THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD AND BECOME MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE AS IT TRACKS
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE
ROCKIES...CHANGING OUR MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW FROM W/NW TO MORE
NW/N. THIS WILL ALLOW SEASONABLY COOL AIR TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE
WEEK.

TODAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BE GUSTY FROM LATE THIS
MORNING INTO LATE AFTN. SOME CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP BUT BE MOSTLY
SCT. THESE WINDS WILL BRING IN DRIER AND COOLER AIR...THEN
DECREASE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS DOWN
FROM THE DKTS. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY MAINLY FROM 80 TO 85 AND LOWS
TONIGHT 55 TO 60.

MONDAY...SOME 850 MB MOISTURE WILL TRY TO WORK INTO THE NERN PART OF
THE FCST AREA. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY WEAK ML CAPE IN OUR AREA BUT
HIGHER AMOUNTS TO OUR WEST AND TO OUR EAST. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE SHALLOW...SO DID NOT MENTION ANY PCPN. WE WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

TUESDAY...THIS SHOULD BE ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH PCPN CHANCES OFF TO
OUR WEST. THE 00Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS BRING SOME SHOWERS OR
TSTMS IN OUR WESTERN ZONES...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING...BUT FOR
NOW THIS APPEARED TO BE TOO FAR EAST. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE IN
CONTROL AND THE SURFACE AND THERE DID NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH IN THE
WAY OR LARGE SCALE FORCING IN OUR AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

GENERALLY STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND IN THIS PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE REGION IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT THESE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME. KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS IN OUR WRN/SWRN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT BEST CHANCES WILL STAY TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.

THE 00Z GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SUGGESTED THAT SOME LOW POPS WERE
NEEDED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SO FOLLOWED THAT TREND.
00Z ECMWF ALSO HINTED AT A SMALL CHANCE OF PCPN FRIDAY. PATTERN OF
A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
GULF COAST REGION WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES THROUGH 28/18Z.
CUMULUS/STRATO CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTN AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON
COULD PROVIDE AN OCCASIONAL CEILING...BUT GENERALLY ABOVE FL040 AT
TAF SITES.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...CHERMOK


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