Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 272331

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
631 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Cold front extending from central MN into northern NE will push
into the area tonight. Water vapor shows one short wave across
western IA with a cluster of thundershowers from Red Oak to
Atlantic will mainly affect central IA late this afternoon and
could just brush southwest IA. Meanwhile, water vapor imagery
indicated another short wave moving through western SD, with
thunderstorms developing across western through south central SD.
These were moving east southeast and could very well remain west
of the forecast area overnight. Thus precip chances across the
area remain slim at best tonight but with the front moving into
the area, will still maintain a 20% chance, with all precip
chances winding down by daybreak Thursday as high pressure
continues to build into the area. The HRRR and RAP try to develop
convection, but HighRes NMM/ARW remain dry. The Nam and GFS hint
at spotty precip, while the ECMWF remains dry.

Will go dry for Thursday with high pressure and northerly flow,
with below normal temps in the lower to mid 80s. All precip
chances remain well west of the forecast area across the High

The area remains in weak northwest flow through the remainder of
the short term. Weak disturbances could affect the area late
Thursday night through Saturday with a continued small 20-30%
chance of rain. Friday could see temps in the upper 70s to lower
80s. Saturday back to the lower to mid 80s. All below normal.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

An upper ridge builds back across the plains which allows temps to
head back into the 90s Monday through Wednesday of next week. In
that transition, there may still be a small rain chance Sunday,
but then dry for Monday. Models hint at weak front trying to move
in under the ridge Monday night into Tuesday. Models unclear what
happens to the front 7 days out, thus confidence is low in
forecast details that far out.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

VFR conditions through the TAF period with patchy mid clouds and mainly
high clouds. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are
possible, however it is uncertain if they will hold together by
the time they move toward KOFK or if any new ones will pop up with
loss of heating and weak forcing. Included a couple hours of
shower mention and a variable wind at KOFK. Surface high pressure
builds in and surface winds become more north and northeast. At
this time another round of storms Thursday afternoon and Thursday
night looks to hold west of the TAF sites.


.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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