Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 272021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
321 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Early-afternoon water vapor imagery revealed a mid-level ridge
edging east from the Rockies into adjacent High Plains, downstream
from a trough approaching the Pacific Coast. In the low levels, a
lee trough was deepening over the High Plains as of 18z with a
diffuse warm front that stretched from central South Dakota into
eastern parts of Nebraska and Kansas. The warm front will
gradually shift east/northeast tonight in concert with a migratory
cyclone tracking across North Dakota. Some vertical mixing
associated with a nocturnal LLJ will promote stronger surface
winds than last night, which should limit the potential for
widespread fog development. Model guidance does does hint at some
fog formation late tonight/early Friday over southeast Nebraska
into southwest Iowa where surface winds will be a bit lighter.

Friday, the mid-level ridge over the north-central U.S. will be
temporarily dampened by a short-wave trough translating along the
International Border. This disturbance will be associated with a
surface cold front which will advance southeast into the mid
Missouri Valley. Since this boundary will not reach northeast
Nebraska until afternoon, seasonably warm temperatures and breezy
conditions are expected across much of the forecast area.
Currently, we are forecasting highs in the lower 80s which will be
close to the record values of 84, 84, and 85 at Omaha, Lincoln,
and Norfolk, respectively.

The cold front will move slowly south through the area Friday
night and Saturday with highs in the mid to upper 70s Saturday
afternoon over southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. We will see
cooler temperatures areawide on Sunday as the cold front stalls
across Kansas and Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Monday and Tuesday, 12z medium-range guidance is now in much
better agreement in the timing and amplitude of a short-wave
trough which will translate from the northern High Plains into
upper Great Lakes. The associated surface low will pass to our
north with the trailing cold front moving into the mid Missouri
Valley on Monday, before stalling over eastern Kansas and western
Missouri Tuesday. Ahead of the front, well-above-normal temperatures
and gusty winds are expected with cooler conditions anticipated by

The stalled surface front may lift north into the area toward the
middle of the upcoming work week as southerly low-level winds
strengthen ahead of an upper trough moving through the Interior
West. This pattern evolution will support an increasing chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the Tuesday night to Thursday time


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

VFR conditions will continue today into tonight at all sites, with
south winds around 10-15kt. May see some reduced visibility creep
back into KOMA late tonight/early Friday morning, and have
continued an MVFR tempo mention. Also included wind shear at all
sites, with strongest shear likely at KOFK. Winds will increase
through the morning hours out of the south to southwest.




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