Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 300807
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
307 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE DEALING WITH TIMING OF PRECIP EVENTS
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS SERIES OF UPPER WAVES MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION.

INITIAL SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING WAS LIFTING INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT 07Z.  SUPPORTED BY
60KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. CONVECTION HAD
WEAKENED AND DIMINISHED SINCE 05Z AS BAND OF STORMS MOVED AWAY
FROM SUPPORT OF 60KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.

06Z RAP TRANSLATES THIS BAND OF STRONGER WINDS TO THE EAST DURING
THE MORNING AND INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT POPS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THIS TIME WITH SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING INITIAL BAND OF
STORMS STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BY 18Z IN ADVANCE OF DRY LINE. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER
CLOUDS BREAK ENOUGH FOR SUN TO ADD TO DESTABILIZATION NEAR THE DRY
LINE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK IN PLACE.

AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WEST LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT AND SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY AS
ANOTHER AMPLIFYING UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. PRIMARY FORCING FINALLY SHIFTS EAST WITH THE UPPER WAVE
AND SURFACE FRONT LATE THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT
TERM WEATHER SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS YET ANOTHER
STRONG WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PULLS DOWN
COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE. WARMER TEMPS RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AS MEAN TROUGH SETS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION
WITH RIDGING IN THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A WEAK BACK-DOOR FRONT THAT WAS PUSHING WEST TOWARD MISSOURI RIVER
SHOULD WASH OUT TONIGHT AS SRLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AHEAD OF A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...A FEW LOW CLOUDS WITH CIGS BELOW
FL010 WERE WORKING SW WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND THESE LOW
CIGS COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT KOMA AND KOFK. OTHERWISE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE STILL LIKELY TO ROLL INTO ERN NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MID TUESDAY MORNING AS TROUGH CONTINUES LIFTING NE. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS SOME CHANCE THESE STORMS COULD LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY...IT
APPEARED THERE WILL BE ONE WAVE WORKING TOWARD THE MO RIVER
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH REDEVELOPMENT THEN LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS TWO
AREAS. ONE AREA POSSIBLY NEAR KOFK BY LATE AFTN WITH THE OTHER
NEAR OR SW OF KLNK A LITTLE LATER WITH THAT SECOND AREA POSSIBLY
IMPACTING KLNK AND KOMA LONGER THAN THE FIRST AREA WOULD AT KOFK.
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF BREAKS IN MORNING
CONVECTION ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER WELL THROUGH THE 70S. FOR NOW
JUST CONTINUED THE MENTION OF PROB30 WITH GUSTS TO 35 WITH LATTER
DAY CONVECTION CHANCES AT ALL SITES.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...CHERMOK



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