Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 171745

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1245 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Dry/warm fall weather will continue with rain/thunderstorm chances
by early in the weekend.

Continued weak west/northwest flow aloft will continue today with a
weak shortwave progged to slide overhead this afternoon. With little
moisture to work with, this should pass by quietly. Otherwise,
weaker surface winds expected today as compared to Monday. Lack of
deeper mixing should keep highs fairly close to what they were Monday.

A weak cold front will move through the area on Wednesday before
high pressure over the Dakotas moves into the area for Thursday.
The front will come through dry with decent mixing ahead of the
boundary, boosting temperatures into the mid 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

By Thursday night, southerly low-level flow will bring moisture
back into the region ahead of an approaching negatively tilted
trough over the southwestern US. Surface dewpoints are progged to
reach the mid to upper 60s by Saturday. This trough tends to
weaken as it slides northeast into late Friday however a stronger
trough will quickly drift east out of the Pacific Northwest and
into the northern High Plains by early Saturday. At the surface,
associated frontal boundary will extend from the eastern Dakotas
southwestward into low pressure over northwest Kansas. A
strengthening low-level jet overnight Friday into Saturday could
aid in nocturnal thunderstorms over the area. Thunderstorms should
become more widespread through the day Saturday as the strong
front dives southeast across the forecast area. System moves out
by Sunday with the remainder of the forecast looking dry.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

VFR conditions through the forecast period. A patch of high
clouds...FL above 15k ft...will push across the area tonight...and
another area of high clouds will move in Wednesday morning.
South/Southwest winds 5 to 10kts through tonight. The wind shift
approaches KOFK by the end of the TAF pd Wednesday morning.




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