Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 221105

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
605 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Radar returns continue to increase and spread east across central
Nebraska but sfc obs continue to show little, if anything, reaching
the ground due to dry low levels per ceiling heights. Will still
carry some small pops across the northern half of the CWA through
the morning as weak isentropic upglide continues in mid-level
warm air advection regime. Otherwise, upper level ridging
continues to build overhead this morning with the ridge axis
forecast to extend over the mid-Missouri River Valley by 06z
Thursday. Some peaks of sun are possible today, but thick low
level clouds are expected to expand northward later tonight in
advance of a strong Great Basin trough. Have increased lows
tonight based on increasing stratus deck overnight and possible
showers or patchy drizzle. Light showers or drizzle will likely
continue into Thursday morning.

A cold front will drop south across the CWA Thursday evening as the
upper trough continues east over the Rockies. This is when we
introduce thunder into the forecast with fairly strong convergence
along the boundary. The front slowly slides south through the day
Friday leading to continued showers north of the boundary and a
chance of thunder to the south.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Showers are likely to continue into Friday night and Saturday as the
upper low slowly moves east across the Kansas/Oklahoma border. Weak
shortwave ridging will move overhead Sunday followed by another
upper low/trough which is forecast to affect mainly Kansas and
southeastern Nebraska Sunday night into Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Light pcpn, light snow or a light rain/light snow mix, was
scattered over parts of eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa early
this morning. As of 6 am, cloud bases were still mainly above
5000 feet. Will include TEMPO groups for MVFR conditions and light
precipitation this morning. We generally loose the lift needed
for precipitation by early afternoon, so ceilings should be mainly
VFR this afternoon and evening. Then low clouds are likely to move
in tonight, with strengthening southerly flow.




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