Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 132054
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
254 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 254 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

The short term will have a couple of chance of snow, tonight then
again tomorrow night, and then bitterly cold temperatures Monday
night into Tuesday night.

Fast moving clipper moving out of the northern Rockies was already
spreading light snow into western South Dakota and extreme
northwest Nebraska, and will move into the area tonight. Models
are consistent with higher QPF/snow amounts across central NE, but
1-2" are still possible in southeast Nebraska, with up to an inch
elsewhere. Winds remain at 10 knots or less so blowing snow not
really an issue. Snow will be moving out of the area early Sunday
morning in our southeastern counties.

Right behind this first clipper, a second clipper and associated
arctic front will move through the area Sunday afternoon through
early Monday morning. The snow with that front will arrive in
northeast Nebraska and northwest Iowa 3-6pm, then snow chances
overspread the area and then push south into Kansas and Missouri
by daybreak Monday. This system could bring up to an inch of snow
with colder air quickly coming in behind.

High temperatures ahead of the arctic front tomorrow do rebound in
into the mid 20s to mid 30s, but highs Monday will mostly be in
the single digits with brisk northwest winds. 1046mb arctic high
settles into the area Monday night, which should allow temps to
drop into the -5 to -15 range. Wind chill values Monday could
range -20 to -25 north of a line from Columbus to Harlan. Wind
chill values Monday night drop to -20 to -35, which lingers into
Tuesday morning. Thus, will eventually need to issue wind chill
advisories and warnings, but will wait for that until tomorrow.

High temperatures Tuesday still only in the single digits above
zero. Winds do decrease Tuesday night to either calm or less than
5 mph, but it will still be quite cold with lows from 0 to -8.
Wind chill values still -15 to 20 into early Wednesday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 254 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

The period should be dry with moderating temperatures as an upper
ridge builds across the Plains, then flattens with zonal flow
ahead of the next big trough next weekend. Temps still cool in the
20s on Wednesday, but warming into the 30s and 40s Thursday
through Saturday.

There is another potentially strong closed low storm that will affect
the region next Saturday night into Sunday, but that`s just beyond
this forecast, and there remains a fair amount of model discrepancy
that will need to be resolved.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1116 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of today with
MVFR conditions moving in later this evening as a disturbance
brings a chance for snow across the TAF sites. KOMA could pick up
a half inch of snow through the overnight but KOFK and KLNK may
see around an inch or two. Visibilities will be reduced to IFR
conditions in falling snow. Conditions should improve to MVFR or
even VFR once the snow has moved out of the area by 13-15Z Sunday.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DeWald
LONG TERM...DeWald
AVIATION...Kern



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