Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 260846
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
346 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO WESTERN
MONTANA. MEANWHILE...RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION RIDING UP
THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM WESTERN ONTARIO THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WESTERN
IOWA AND MISSOURI WHILE A SFC LOW DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST TODAY
WHILE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FOUR CORNERS SHORTWAVE MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING/NORTHEASTERN COLORADO BY 12Z
THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THIS...STRENGTHENING SFC LOW WILL DRIFT EAST
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION ALLOWING INCREASING WARM/MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. INCREASING ISENTROPIC
LIFT IN LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME SHOULD PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE OVERNIGHT...BUT AM CONCERNED FOR THE
LACK OF MOISTURE. FEEL WE MAY HAVE RADAR RETURNS SHOWING UP BUT IT
MAY BE TOUGH FOR ANYTHING REACHING THE GROUND EARLY IN THE EVENT.
AREA HAS BEEN OUTLOOKED IN THE MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY ONE THINKING
TSTMS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SPREAD EAST...AIDED BY
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET. BOTH MOISTURE AND
LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE. WILL CONTINUE
POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY THURSDAY EVENING AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN IOWA WHERE STRONGEST LARGE SCALE FORCING IN ADDITION
TO NOSE OF NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESIDE. PW`S IN OUR REGION
ARE AT OR ABOVE 2.00" AND SOME POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

THE TROUGH AXIS IS SLOW TO DEPART THE AREA FRIDAY...WITH PCPN
LINGERING IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. INCREASING NORTHWEST SFC WINDS COULD GET A BIT BREEZY
FOR A WHILE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX IN THE
EVENING AS A LARGE AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY AS UPPER
RIDGING SLIDES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WITH THE AXIS
OVER THE CWA BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODEL BLENDS DID ADD A SMALL POP TO OUR
NORTHWESTERN CWA TUESDAY ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING OUT
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUT DO MAINTAIN LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
ACTUALLY PANNING OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...DEE



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