Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KOAX 021137
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
637 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

AREA IS FAIRLY STABLE...WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE WEST AND
SOUTH SO FAR. SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD
BUT WEAKENED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US...AND BROAD BUT
WEAKENED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED NEAR THE
AB/SASK BORDER...WITH WV IMAGERY INDICATING WAVE HAD SLID INTO ND.
UPPER-LEVEL JET MAX WAS ONLY AROUND 80KT...LOCATED ACROSS MT/ND.
850MB MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WAS NOTED FROM WESTERN MN
THROUGH WESTERN IA INTO NORTHERN MO...WITH 12C+ MOISTURE AXIS
NOSING THROUGH EASTERN KS INTO EASTERN NEB. SURFACE LOW AT 07Z WAS
CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHWEST MO...WITH HIGH SILL IN PLACE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS IN THE CWA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. INSTABILITY AXIS IS CURRENTLY WEST OF THE
CWA...BUT IT IS WORKING INTO THE WESTERN CWA. CONVECTION IS
GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED IN WESTERN NEB...BUT THINK IT
WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE EASTWARD FOR MUCH OF TODAY WITH CONTINUED
DRIER AND STABLE EASTERLY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW INTO THE CWA.
HAVE BACKED OFF POPS IN THE EASTERN CWA...AND HONESTLY THINK
WESTERN IA WILL SEE LITTLE OR NO RAIN UNTIL AFTER 00Z AND COULD
STRUGGLE TO SEE SHOWER ACTIVITY EVEN THROUGH TONIGHT. IN THE
WESTERN CWA...HOWEVER...DO HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
SHOWERS/THUNDER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. POTENTIAL LINGERS IN AT LEAST
THE SOUTHERN CWA INTO FRIDAY...WITH EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW GIVING
WAY TO WEAK SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...BUT WITH 850MB
GRADIENT SHIFTING SOUTHWARD. NUDGED POPS UP JUST A TOUCH FOR
FRIDAY...BUT MIGHT BE UNDERPLAYING PRECIP POTENTIAL STILL.

MURKY PATTERN CONTINUES ON SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WINDS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE BACK
TOWARD NORMAL. HAVE MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POP
UP...AS MODELS NOW INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRECIP CHANCES DO RAMP UP
ON SUNDAY...THOUGH IT IS NO SLAM DUNK...AND HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION IN THE WESTERN CWA FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY...BRINGING A MORE ROBUST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TAKE THE FRONT
THROUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT...SHUNTING MOISTURE AND THUS PRECIP
CHANCES TO THE SOUTH. HAVE TRENDED DRIER ON
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW NORMAL BEHIND
THE FRONT PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY BUT ALSO ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES. GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS OF IFR CONDITIONS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT WILL
ADDRESS THAT AT LATER TAF ISSUANCES.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...KERN



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.