Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44
FXUS63 KOAX 281711

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1211 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(today through Tuesday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

Pcpn forecast over the next couple days is problematic at best at
this point as confident in model QPF fields is low at best.
Latest runs of NAM/GFS/ECM 6hr QPF all suggest widespread pcpn
should be occuring over the great lakes region this evening in
association with rather strong vort max approaching from the west.
However...check of regional radar up there showing nothing but an
isolated cell in wrn MI. At any rate...with minor impulses
undercutting building upper ridge...cannot totally discount
potential for TSRA activity over the CWA. Just question though if
areal coverage...widespread in nature...will be as great as
advertised. Given this...feel somewhat compelled to just maintain
slight to low-end chance POPs through the Tuesday night period.
Otherwise...slightly cooler air mass creeping in from the north
will keep max temps seasonal the next few days.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

ECM/GFS/CMC continue overall to prog potential for pcpn under upper
level ridge situated over the cntrl conus throughout the majority of
the extended periods. Thus will continue token small pops with focus
over the srn CWA. Otherwise...near or just below normal max temps
generally in the low/mid 80s are expected through next week.


Issued at 1211 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

Deep-layer moisture will increase across the region through the
forecast period ahead of a mid-level low currently over the Four-
Corners Region. This will yield persistent high-level clouds,
boundary-layer-based cumulus through the peak of the diurnal
heating cycle and isolated showers and thunderstorms. Confidence
in convection affecting any TAF site remains too low to warrant
mention at this juncture. Increasing low-level relative humidity
and decreasing winds overnight could result in visibility
restrictions due to fog toward 12z Monday, especially at KOMA and
KOFK. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail.


.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


AVIATION...Mead is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.