Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 240835
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
335 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Temperatures Tuesday and thunderstorm chances mainly from Tuesday
night through mid week are the main forecast concerns.

Early this morning, surface analysis showed high pressure
extending from MN back southwest into eastern NE. Dewpoints
locally were in the upper 50s and lower 60s, with temperatures
not much higher than that at most locations. Fog had not developed
as of 330 am cdt, but still could yet this morning, so will keep
mention of at least patchy fog into mid morning.

Mid tropospheric ridge remained centered over the Four Corners
region, with the northern and central parts of the Plains in
northwest flow. That ridge will build southeast toward TX and OK
through Tuesday, while a fairly compact shortwave trough/closed
low tracks east across southern Canada. This should help a cold
front push east through the Dakotas and MN. The boundary will
continue to move east/southeast Wednesday, making its way across
NE and IA with decent thunderstorm chances.

Today, after any fog, it should be sunny to partly cloudy, with
increasing southerly flow as high pressure at the surface tracks
east away from the area. Highs should reach the upper 80s and
lower 90s in the western parts of the forecast area, and mid to
upper 80s east. For now, removed the slight thunderstorm chances
we had going in parts of northeast NE for tonight. Forcing is
pretty weak, and chances are a bit high to our north/northeast.

On Tuesday, look for increasing south or southwest winds and those
should help push highs into the lower and mid 90s. That will
likely be the warmest day of the week. Kept Tuesday, at least
during the day time hours, dry as well. Thunderstorm chances do
move into our area Tuesday night. Models develop a 30-40 knot low
level jet and increase precipitable water values mainly into the
1.5 to 2.0 inch range. There should also be a moderately strong
area of Q Vector convergence in the 700-500 mb layer that tracks
across our area from northwest to southeast. The 00Z GFS was
faster in moving the precipitation out of the area, compared to
the 00Z ECMWF. At this time, preferred to use a blend of the
timing from both models.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

The chance for a decent rain is highest over east central NE and
southwest IA Wednesday night, then that will shift down into KS
and MO by Thursday night. Kept thunderstorm chances during the day
Thursday generally south of Interstate 80. With probably a decent
amount of sky cover, highs may only reach 80 to 85.

500 mb ridge is expected to retrograde back to the four corners
region by Friday, and then strengthen over the western CONUS
through the weekend. Models differ on exactly how strong that will
be, and how much warm/hot air will expand into our area from the
high Plains. For now, kept highs in the 80s from Friday through
Sunday. There will be some low chances for precipitation, mainly
late Friday night into Saturday morning in northeast NE and for
the northern half of the forecast area Sunday afternoon/evening.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

VFR conditions mainly, although there will be some patchy fog in
the morning 10-13z. Fog mostly affects valleys, rivers, and low
lying areas. Temporary MVFR fog could occur at KOMA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...DeWald


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