Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 281247
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
647 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

WV IMAGERY SHOWING A BROAD TROF THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE
CONUS THIS MORNING WITH THE JET STREAM DIPPING ALL THE WAY DOWN
INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES. MEANWHILE...SFC OBS SHOWING SLY
FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE OH VLY.

TOPIC OF INTEREST THIS MORNING IS POTENTIAL PCPN THIS WEEKEND
WITH PCPN TYPE BEING AN ISSUE. PLACEMENT SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC TOO
AS THE LATEST NAM/GFS SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL BE BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
OVER THE CWA AS OPPOSED TO THE CMC/ECM SOLUTIONS WHICH FOCUS QPF
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CWA. AT THIS POINT PREFER FAVORING CMC/ECM
SOLUTIONS GIVEN BOTH HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT LAST COUPLE RUNS
FOCUSING ACTIVITY OVER THE SRN CWA. EXPECT AREA OF SN CURRENTLY
OVER WRN KS TO EXPAND NWD INTO THE CWA THIS AFTN ALONG AXIS OF
DEEP LYR AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT/MOIST UPGLIDE ALONG 295K THETA SFC.
BEST FORCING IS PROGGED TO REMAIN IN GENERAL VICINITY OF THE SRN
CWA THRU TONIGHT AND EARLY SUN MORNING AND ANTICIPATE AMOUNTS WILL
BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH AN INCH OR SO SOUTH OF THE I-80
CORRIDOR.

EVENT MONDAY AFTN/NIGHT A BIT MORE TRICKY THEN CONSIDERING THRUST OF
CAA SWEEPING IN WILL MAKE DETERMINING PCPN TYPE PROBLEMATIC AT BEST.
SEEMS TO BE DECENT AGREEMENT THOUGH AMONGST THE CMC/ECM/GFS CRIT
THKNS...850MB TEMP....COBB DATA THE ENVIRONMENT WILL MORE OR LESS
FAVOR SOME SORT OF RA/FZRA/SN MIX OVER MOST OF THE CWA ALL THE WAY
THRU 12Z TUES MORNING WITH ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BASICALLY CONFIDED
TO THE NRN CWA.INITIAL PROBLEM IN THE EXTENDED PDS IS TIMING PCPN CHANGE FROM
LIQUID TO FROZEN ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY DOWNWARD TREND OF TEMPS.

METEOGRAMS PER GFS/ECM/CMC ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT ADVERTISING A
NON-DIURNAL EVENT TAKING SHAPE WITH FALLING TEMPS PROGGED OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY. WILL MAKE BEST EFFORT THEN TO TIME
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BASED ON THIS. THE GOOD NEWS IS GIVEN LATE ENTRY
OF CAA...ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.


AS FOR TEMPS...A WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF SITUATED OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS MID WEEK WILL ALLOW A CHILLY AIRMASS TO INVADE THE REGION
CULMINATING IN OVERNIGHT TEMPS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WED
MORNING AND THURS MORNING. NICE REBOUND THOUGH PROGGED BY NEXCT
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW/MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

INITIAL PROBLEM IN THE EXTENDED PDS IS TIMING PCPN CHANGE FROM
LIQUID TO FROZEN ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY DOWNWARD TREND OF TEMPS.

METEOGRAMS PER GFS/ECM/CMC ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT ADVERTISING A
NON-DIURNAL EVENT TAKING SHAPE WITH FALLING TEMPS PROGGED OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY. WILL MAKE BEST EFFORT THEN TO TIME
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BASED ON THIS. THE GOOD NEWS IS GIVEN LATE ENTRY
OF CAA...ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.


AS FOR TEMPS...A WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF SITUATED OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS MID WEEK WILL ALLOW A CHILLY AIRMASS TO INVADE THE REGION
CULMINATING IN OVERNIGHT TEMPS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WED
MORNING AND THURS MORNING. NICE REBOUND THOUGH PROGGED BY NEXT WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW/MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 602 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KOMA...KOFK...AND KLNK UNTIL 20Z WHEN
SNOW AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LOWER CEILINGS TO MVFR LEVELS. SNOW AND
MVFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST AT KOMA AND KLNK UNTIL 04Z. MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE AT KOFK BY 00Z,

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...SMITH



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