Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 260445

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1145 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Slow-moving low continues to push rain into the area. Subjective 12Z
upper-air analysis indicates upper-level low centered in eastern
KS/western MO, with 100m 500mb height falls ahead of it. Another
trough was just off the west coast, with 110m height falls into
southern CA. The 850mb low center was nearly stacked under the upper
low, with closed circulation encompassing an area from southern MN
to northern TX and western KS to the MS river. Moisture had wrapped
behind the low across IA/eastern NE/KS. Surface low at 19Z was
centered in southeastern MO, with stratus deck back into central
NE/central KS.

Main forecast concern is the stratus vs fog dilemma tonight, then
return of rain chances on Sunday night/Monday at least to the
southern CWA. For tonight, dilemma remains that stratus will
preclude dense (<1SM) fog formation where it lingers tonight, though
light visibility restrictions are possible. If clouds were to break,
then dense fog formation would occur, given the abundant low-level
moisture and light winds. That scenario would be more likely in
northeast NE than anywhere else. That said, forecast soundings among
guidance products do hold onto stratus through the night. Have
continued to play the forecast that the stratus wins the battle.

Clouds will linger through much of Sunday, with just a short break
in weather as upper-level ridge slides through ahead of the next
trough/low upstream. The surface low is forecast to remain well
south, moving across OK to AR/MO, and most precipitation also should
remain well south. We do have a small area of chance POPs in the
southern CWA on Sunday night to the southeasternmost CWA on Monday
morning.  In wake of that system, a broader upper-level ridge will
move into the central US, with more residence time ahead of the next
upper low.  Blends have included rain in central NE just getting
into the northwestern CWA on Tuesday afternoon, but better bet is
likely to remain dry. In fact, Tuesday might be the nicest day in
the next seven, with potential for temperature recovery and a few
peeks of sun.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Main forecast concern in the long term is the impact of a slow-
moving upper-level low Wednesday through Friday. Another slow-moving
low is progged to rumble across the southern Plains to Mississippi
River valley, with a considerable amount of discrepancy remaining
among model solutions regarding its placement and timing.  Have left
blended rain chances Tuesday night through Thursday night, but did
cut rain out of the blended grids on Friday and Friday night, as GEM
was the lone outlier still producing rain in the area.  Once again,
it looks likely that NE/IA will remain on the cool side of the low,
with precipitation remaining plain rain as it is too far north to be
convective and too warm for frozen types.  Temperatures are likely
to be just as impacted as precip chances by the low placement, with
further north GEM-like solution warmer than further south ECMWF/GFS
solutions, and have maintained blend temperatures for now until
models exhibit better consistency/agreement.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Not much change from previous thinking. Generally expect IFR
ceilings at all three sites overnight and into Sunday morning.
There will be some restriction to vsby with fog, possibly lowest
at KOFK. Expect ceilings to gradually increase to the MVFR
category on Sunday.




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