Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 210534

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1134 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 327 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

WV imagery was showing the upstream longwave trof has nudged a bit
to the east since yesterday and currently extends from about central
Canada to Baja. However, models are in pretty good agreement large
scale pattern will become stagnant with the upper trof moving little
the next several days. Meanwhile natural color imagery was clearly
showing demarcation of snow cover across the region...with snow
generally northwest of a line from northeast NE to east-central CO.

Onset of precip and dominate type on Wednesday evening is the main
issue to contend with. Models are in good agreement showing precip
development over KS late afternoon Wed within region of 300K
moisture advection/upglide. Precip in the form of light snow then
expands across the CWA during the overnight hours with increase of
mid layer ageostrophic lift. Thursday morning, precip type becomes
problematic as MaxT aloft push just above freezing. And with BUFKIT
showing feeder-seeder process waning along with boundary layer temps
below freezing, dominate precip type will likely be freezing drizzle
by late morning and continuing through the afternoon. Light freezing
drizzle appears to still be possible Thursday evening. At this
point, expect snow totals to range from about one or so inches south
of I-80 corridor, with up to an inch the rest of the CWA. Ice
accumulations, around a tenth of an inch extreme southeast
NE/extreme southwest IA, with less that a tenth elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 327 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Next round of possible snow accumulation comes on Saturday when the
GFS/ECM prog a vigorous vort max crossing into the central Plains.
Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail Sunday through Tuesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1128 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

VFR conditions with mainly clear skies and light northwest to
northeast winds are expected through the day Wednesday. VFR cigs
near FL080 will overspread eastern Nebraska after 00Z, with
lowering cigs through 06Z. MVFR cigs and a chance for light snow
is forecast near or after 06Z, affecting KLNK initially.




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