Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 140841
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
341 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

Scattered thunderstorms have developed early this morning within
nose of veered low-level jet while a weak mid-level impulse moves
e/se across the forecast area. Continued spotty activity is
expected to move east through the morning, especially south of
I-80 as a secondary weak shortwave slides overhead. Above normal
temperatures will continue today with good mixing potential
pushing highs into the upper 80s to low 90s. Temperatures will
remain well above normal in advance of a developing large-scale
western trough through Friday with isolated thunderstorms possible
again tonight as mid-level warm advection moves across the
region. Best chances will be in our northern CWA, closer to
theta-e axis along veered low-level jet.

Low-level moisture will increase across the Central Plains Friday
ahead of advancing western trough. A lee cyclone is forecast to
develop across western Kansas while a secondary low forms across
eastern South Dakota. With a 50kt veered low-level jet overhead and
elevated instability, some strong thunderstorms are possible near
the frontal boundary Friday night into Saturday morning. Surface
dewpoints by Saturday should be pushing into the mid to upper 60s
ahead of the front which will slowly push southeastward throughout
the day into a moderately unstable environment. Thunderstorm
development is possible along the boundary by afternoon provided no
capping inversion. The front is forecast to quickly slide
southeast through the evening with point forecast soundings
indicating a stratus deck filling in behind the boundary. This
will mess with high temperatures as readings will be falling
through the day in our north with hot and humid conditions in our
south ahead of the front.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

Surface high pressure quickly builds southeast out of the Northern
Plains and skirts the forecast area allowing return southerly flow
to quickly move back into the area Sunday night. This will push the
frontal boundary north across the forecast area Sunday night into
Monday morning with nose of veered low level jet extending into
the forecast area. Precipitation chances will continue into
Tuesday in warm air advection regime.

Models diverge into mid-week as GFS has been persistent on
bringing a tropical system from the Baja into the Central Plains
while the ECMWF has nothing of the sort.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017

VFR conditions are expected thru the fcst pd.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kern
LONG TERM...Kern
AVIATION...DEE



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