Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 202320

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
620 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Latest water vapor imagery loop shows an upper trough axis just
to our east with a weak upstream trough axis sliding southeast
from the Dakotas. Otherwise, cool surface high pressure continues
to slide southeast across the region this afternoon along with an
area of MVFR clouds. Expect this area of high pressure to be
centered over the CWA through the evening with light return flow
increasing by early Friday morning. Clearing skies and calm winds
overnight should allow temperatures to fall to around or just
below freezing in most areas. Frost/freeze headlines are done
across the entire CWA so there will be no mention in the gridded

Otherwise, very quiet conditions are expected over the next
several days with temperatures at or close to normal for this time
of the year.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

While temperatures will continue near normal through next
work/school week, we will see an upper level disturbances roll
through the area providing enough support to increase chances for
precipitation. This chance comes early Tuesday morning into
Wednesday as a potent shortwave trough moves east across the area.
Timing issues have yet to be resolved with ECMWF a bit slower than
the GFS. An increase in instability could bring some mention of
thunder as well.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

VFR conditions are likely through the TAF cycle. Area of 3500-5000
ft ceilings will continue to both dissipate and exit the area over
the next several hours, leaving clear skies or maybe just a few
cirrus in its wake. With winds dropping to light and variable,
would not be surprised by very patchy MVFR-type fog, but
confidence is too low to include a mention. Winds will increase
out of the south by mid-morning to around 10-12kt, with clear
skies or maybe just a few cirrus and unrestricted visibility.




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