Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 201049
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
549 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

MESO ANALYSIS THIS MORNING INDICATING HIGH DEGREE OF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH PWS OVER 1.5"
AND MUCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG. MEANWHILE INTENSE LLVL MOISTURE ADV
WAS FEEDING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WHICH HAS BLOSSOMED OVER CNTRL NEB
AND CNTRL SD ALONG AXIS OF DEEP LYR MOIST CONVERGENCE/BNDRY LYR
THETA-E ADV/315K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE.

LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF HIRES HRRR SUGGESTING LINE OF CONVECTION
ORIENTED NW-SE WILL FIRE OVER THE CWA SOMETIME TWD SUNRISE THIS
MORNING. HRRR THEN LIFTS ACTIVITY NEWD TWD THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OUT
OF THE CWA BY 18Z THIS AFTN.

HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HIGH PRESSURE DOME
WILL BUILD OVER THE SERN STATES WILL ACT AS A BLOCK RESULTING IN
UPSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS. IN
ADDITION...BULK OF PCPN ACTIVITY IS PROGGED TO BE NOCTURNAL IN
NATURE THE REST OF THIS WEEK WITH BULK OF RAINFALL FOUND MAINLY
NORTH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...QUITE PROBABLE THE CWA WILL SEE ITS
FAIR SHARE OF MUCH NEEDED PCPN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

TONIGHT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE FROM ERN SD TO SW NEB ALONG
INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE BNDRY LYR THETA-E CONVG WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT. ACTIVITY PROGGED TO EVENTUALLY ORGANIZE INTO A COMPLEX
AND SLOWLY MIGRATE EWD OVER ERN SD OVERNIGHT. IS LIKELY THAT SRN
PORTION OF MCS WILL PUSH DEEP INTO THE CWA...THUS FEEL COMPELLED
PUSH POPS INTO THE LIKELY CAT DURING THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

THURSDAY NIGHT CONVECTION NOT LOOKING ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AT THIS
POINT AND ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE LIGHTLY SCATTERED
IN NATURE AT BEST. THEREFORE TOKEN LOW POPS SEEM TO BE THE BEST FIT
FOR NOW.  FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH LOOKING RATHER PROMISING FOR GENEROUS
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANTICIPATED NIGHTTIME COMPLEX. ENVIRONMENT
AT THAT TIME WILL BE PRIME WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF 4K METERS...PWS
MORE THAN 2"...KI AOA 40...LLVL JET MOISTURE TRANSPORT FEED. MOST
LIKELY THAT HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE NRN
CWA...THUS WILL MENTION IN ZFP.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

FEATURE OF INTEREST STILL IS UPPER TROF OVER WRN CONUS RESPONSE TO
BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE DOME OVER THE SERN CONUS WITH RATHER COOL
CANADIAN AIRMASS SWEEPING INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GOING FCST WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S
MON/TUES/WED STILL LOOK REASONABLE FOR NOW. PCPN CHANCES IN THE EXT
PDS REMAINS CENTERED AROUND VERY SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTAL LEADING
THE CANADIAN AIR MASS INTO THE REGION FOLLOWED BY POST FRONTAL PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROF. WITH ECM/GFS QPF IN RATHER
GOOD AGREEMENT...HAVE DECIDED TO BUMP POPS UP MON-WED PDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS MORNING SHOULD STAY NORTHEAST THROUGH
EAST OF THE TAF SITES WITH A GENERAL THINNING OF CLOUDS THIS
MORNING. OUTFLOW COULD BRING MORE OF A ENE COMPONENT TO SFC
WINDS EARLY...ESPECIALLY AT KOFK...BUT THEY SHOULD BECOME SSE BY
LATE MORNING AND BECOME GUSTY AT ALL LOCATIONS THIS AFTN. A LOW
LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN TONIGHT AND IF SFC WINDS DECREASE
ENOUGH...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP. THIS WILL
BE FURTHER EVALUATED IN LATER TAFS. TSTMS WERE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT EITHER NEAR A WARM FRONT ALONG THE SD BORDER
OR IN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WRN NEBR. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
COULD APPROACH THE KOFK SITE AND A PROB30 GROUP WAS CARRIED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE RISK THERE LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...CHERMOK



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